FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.
FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.
On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
Ciao,
Werner
On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.
As usual, my computer won't open the spreadsheet though.
What's the log of 0?Not defined. The limit of log(epsilon) as epsilon --> 0 = -infinity
I don't understand the scoring system.Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
And why is it sophisticated anyway? What's the reasoning behind using probabilities?Suppose we both say that Zambia will win the World Cup, and they do in fact go on and win it. How do we know who made the better prediction? But if you gave Zambia a 95% probability, and I gave Zambia a 5% probability, wouldn't you say that your
My human predictions:
As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.Nah, it would be a lie. I was simply off by one day.
Perhaps I'll just leave a couple of unsophisticated predictions here - England will lose the final against the US
in excruciating fashion, Germany and Sweden will go out in the quarters, and Marta will get a medal.
On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 7:20:32 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.
On Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 7:20:57 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
As usual, my computer won't open the spreadsheet though.I just sent you an email.
What's the log of 0?Not defined. The limit of log(epsilon) as epsilon --> 0 = -infinity
I don't understand the scoring system.Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
prediction was more accurate?And why is it sophisticated anyway? What's the reasoning behind using probabilities?Suppose we both say that Zambia will win the World Cup, and they do in fact go on and win it. How do we know who made the better prediction? But if you gave Zambia a 95% probability, and I gave Zambia a 5% probability, wouldn't you say that your
How do you decide what score to give to probabilities of 0 then?
And then the logs of the correct predictions are all added up, and that total minus the sum of the logs of incorrect predictions is your score?I don't understand the scoring system.Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
What are these alternative scoring systems that don't use logs? And have they ever been used?
What's the record for the worst score ever in a World Cup SPC? And what are my chances of breaking it?
On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 5:01:59 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:is the same.
How do you decide what score to give to probabilities of 0 then?I transform that to log (10^(-32)). That's enough to make sure that you lose for sure.
Actually, you add up only the scores of the of the events that actually happen.And then the logs of the correct predictions are all added up, and that total minus the sum of the logs of incorrect predictions is your score?I don't understand the scoring system.Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
What are these alternative scoring systems that don't use logs? And have they ever been used?The most popular is the Brier score: for each prediction, calculate (predicted probability - actual outcome)^2, then add everything up. I will report standings based on that too. Most of the time, but not always, the winner according to the two systems
What's the record for the worst score ever in a World Cup SPC? And what are my chances of breaking it?Don't know, and pretty high.
On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 2:51:18 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 7:20:32 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you
are in.
Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.
As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.
Nah, it would be a lie. I was simply off by one day.
Perhaps I'll just leave a couple of unsophisticated predictions here - England will lose the final against the US
in excruciating fashion, Germany and Sweden will go out in the quarters, and Marta will get a medal.
I might have severely underestimated Japan.
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
I might have severely underestimated Japan.
Or severely overestimated Spain?
There was always the concern that their extreme tiki-taka would be found out once they faced real opposition. Better in a semi-meaningless group game, I guess,
but it's not clear that they can adjust and do something different.
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:45:46 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:19:16 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
I might have severely underestimated Japan.
Standings at the end of Round 1:Or severely overestimated Spain?And Canada, for that matter.
Bookmaker Consensus -19.301
OPTA(*) -19.906
Fantomen -20.560
Keanu J -21.798
Agnostic -22.181
Rosalie -22.252
TwentyFirstGroup -22.787
Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix) -23.357
Werner Pichler -23.597
Collective Consciousness -23.738
Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.232
Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix) -25.804
AIrgentina -26.616
DTAI Sports Analytics -27.789
Econ -33.084
dopemodels.info -34.171
RankFootball -35.616
FIFA -36.090
Futbolmetrix -42.840
Anders T -63.508
Mark -1031.558
Ouch.
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:19:16 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
I might have severely underestimated Japan.
Or severely overestimated Spain?And Canada, for that matter.
Aggie's having a field day.
Who did Mark have as 100% certain to progress? Germany, Canada, or Brazil?
On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 8:54:47 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
Aggie's having a field day.As if he cared...
Who did Mark have as 100% certain to progress? Germany, Canada, or Brazil?Yes. Mark decided to go fully unsophisticated, targeting the Brier score.
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
I might have severely underestimated Japan.
Or severely overestimated Spain?
On 2023-07-31, Futbolmetrix <daniele....@gmail.com> wrote:
On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
I might have severely underestimated Japan.
Or severely overestimated Spain?Seems rather unlikely...
Mark -1473.654
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