XPost: rec.radio.amateur.moderated, rec.radio.amateur.equipment
EI7GL....A diary of amateur radio activity
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W3LPL's forecast for upcoming Solar Cycle 25 - Apr 2021
Posted: 29 Apr 2021 06:00 AM PDT
https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/2021/04/w3lpls-forecast-for-upcoming-solar.html
Frank Donovan, W3LPL is one of the top contesters in the USA and is a key forecaster of upcoming conditions on the HF amateur radio bands.
In a recent forecast (April 2021), he made a forecast about how good
upcoming Solar Cycle 25 would be based on the Solar Flux numbers at the end
of December 2021. I have put together a graphic which shows this above. The starting point for April 2021 is a solar flux index of 77 which is roughly
the average for the month.
W3LPL wrote... “If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than
Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.
If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation
should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24’s arrives
in 2024.
“If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle
24’s arrives in 2024.”
(SFI = Solar Flux Index)
As with everything on the sun, there is always an amount of uncertainty in solar forecasts but it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of
the year and see where we're at.Link...
1) K7RA Solar Update - 23rd April 2021
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Opening to South America on 28 MHz - 28th Apr 2021
Posted: 29 Apr 2021 01:00 AM PDT
https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/2021/04/opening-to-south-america-on-28-mhz-28th.html
Wednesday 28th April 2021: This was a reasonably modest day on the 28 MHz
band with 71 stations in 21 countries heard on FT8.
There was some Sporadic-E propagation to Europe with EA7GPW in the south of Spain being the last station heard at 21:44 UTC. There was also a modest opening to South America.
I didn't get a chance to do any scans of the band as I was out for a long
walk for most of the day. One of the advantages of FT8 is that you can
check to see what propagation conditions were like on the band without
actually being there.
The solar flux on the day was 79 which is not much above what it was at
sunspot minimum.
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