XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP34
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 20, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

Weak solar activity persists, but with just one spotless day in the
current reporting week, August 12 to 18, on Friday, August 13. Last
week we reported four days with no sunspots in the previous seven
days.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 9.9 last week to 17.7
during this week.

Solar flux was the same, with the average inching from 73.7 to 73.8.

Geomagnetic indicators were also stable. Average planetary A index
was 6.1, compared to 6.3 last week. Average middle latitude A index
moved from 7.6 to 7.

Predicted solar flux is 75 on August 20, 73 on August 21 to 23, 72
on August 24 to 26, 73 on August 27 to 29, 74 on August 30 through
September 1, 73 on September 2 to 11, 74 on September 12, 73 on
September 13 to 17, 72 on September 18, and 73 on September 19 to
25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 20, then 8, 8, 10, 14, 12
and 8 on August 21 to 26, 5 on August 27 through September 1, then 8
and 12 on September 2 and 3, 5 on September 4 to 10, 8 on September
11 to 13, 5 on September 14 to 18, then 8, 12 and 8 on September 19
to 21, and 5 on September 22 to 28.

On August 14 Spaceweather.com reported that there were no sunspots,
and that so far in 2021 there were 56 days with no spots. "That
might sound like a lot, but it is in fact a sharp reduction from
hundreds of spotless days observed in 2019 and 2020. Despite
today's blank sun, solar activity is intensifying compared to
previous years."

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 20 til September
14, 2021 from OK1HH, who has returned from his hike in the mountains
of the Czech Republic:

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet August 20 and 21, 28, September 1, 5, 10, 14
Quiet to unsettled August 22, 25 to 27, 31, September 2, 4, 6 to 9
Quiet to active August 30, September 3, (11 to 13)
Unsettled to active August (23 and 24, 29)
Active to disturbed, Nothing predicted

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes is very low because there are not
enough indications."

Ken Brown, N4SO reported hearing a new 10 meter beacon, N5TIT/B on
28.209 MHz.

Signal was weak, and the path was 520 miles.

I've noted that the relatively low solar activity has depressed 10
meter signals, and my practice of using remote SDR receivers to hunt
for beacons turns up little activity lately.

At the end of July I spent 8 days in hospital for neurosurgery, and
managed to use kiwisdr.com/public/ to hunt for 10 meter beacons, and
wrote ARLP031 that week as well. I used the list at https://www.qsl.net/wj5o/bcn.htm to help identify them, and sent
reports to the beacon owners.

The latest from WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/GdI-itUhKec

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 12 through 18, 2021 were 11, 0, 47, 23,
14, 13, and 16, with a mean of 17.7. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 72.9,
72.6, 74.6, 74.4, 73.1, and 75.3, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 6, 5, 10, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of
6.1 Middle latitude A index was 6, 9, 4, 13, 8, 7, and 6, with a
mean of 7.6.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP34
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 26, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then
two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot
number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day. Total sunspot area
more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week,
August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8
during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from
123.7 to 104.5.

Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and
middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in
Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin
reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this
week's report.

The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air
Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at
130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the
previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115
on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on
September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then
128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September
17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and
100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28
through October 1.

Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on
August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8
September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September
3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September
11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,
then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on
September 23, then 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then
back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4,
an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and
Sadovsky.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to
decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More
pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of
the solar disk.

"The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares
and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled
particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on
August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly
after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the
previous sunspot, AR3078.

"Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a
double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth.
Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern
hemisphere of the Sun.

"Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern
solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near
the central meridian.

"With the current type of development, predictions of further events
are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a
quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj

British tabloid sunspot news:

https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz

Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy

A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3csY16x

A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from
American Geophysical Union:

https://bit.ly/3R95HcW

From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

https://bit.ly/3AL32AS

Here is a paper on solar rotations:

https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux

I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are
possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle."
The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from
now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56,
44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4,
101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of
12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with
a mean of 11.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP34
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 25, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP034
ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

Five new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on August 17, another
August 18, two more on August 21 and another on August 22.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly, while average daily
solar flux declined. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 95.7 to
105.9 and average daily solar flux declined from 154.2 to 149.4.

No big geomagnetic events this week, and average daily planetary A
index changed from 6 to 8.4 while average daily middle latitude
index went from 7.7 to 10.1.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on August 25-26, 150 on August 27, 155
on August 28-29, 160 on August 30-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on
September 1-3, 162 on September 4-5, 158 on September 6-7, then 160
and 162 on September 8-9, 158 on September 10-11, 155 on September
12, 152 on September 13-15, 153 on September 16-18, 155 on September
19, and 158 on September 20-23, 162 on September 24-25, 165 on
September 26-28, then 163 and 160 on September 29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, then 5, 10 and 8 on
August 26-28, 5 on August 29 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8
on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-13, 12 on September 14, 10 on
September 15-17, and 5 on September 18 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere August 25-31, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

Although solar activity has been rated as low over the last seven
days, let's not be misled by an assessment based mainly on the
number and importance of flares. Solar activity continues to
increase toward the peak of cycle 25, expected in two years.
Projected into the highest usable ionospheric F2 layer frequencies,
this means that we may finally be able to look forward to a wide
opening of the ten-meter band for DX shortwave contacts. If it
occurs during this fall, we can expect the 25th cycle maximum to be
quite high after all.

It was pretty quiet over the weekend as all eight sunspot groups had
stable magnetic fields. Despite another large sunspot appearing in
the meantime, apparently magnetically connected to another sunspot
on the other side of the solar equator, there was still not much
going on. Only the M1.1 0 class solar flare on August 22 at 2304 UTC
was an exception. But although it lasted long enough to carry a CME
out of the solar atmosphere, it evidently did not.

On August 23, a filament erupted near the southwest limb of the Sun.
If it envelops the Earth, it would likely not happen until August
27, with a possible G1 class storm.

Max White, M0VNG sent this about solar wind: https://bit.ly/3YQToa7

Reader Jeremy Gill of Seattle, WA contributed this article on aurora
and the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/44sRGgh .

Warnings about solar activity, some a bit shrill:

https://bit.ly/3qHy6za https://bit.ly/3YLsoc

https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3 https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP

A new video from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for August 17 through 23, 2023 were 135, 112, 104,
93, 102, 96, and 99, with a mean of 105.9. 10.7 cm flux was 151.9,
150.6, 150.6, 146.3, 148.7, 150.9, and 147, with a mean of 149.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 8, 12, 10, 12, and
5, with a mean of 10.1.
NNNN
/EX

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