• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 14 - 20 February 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 21 13:00:16 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Feb 21 0202 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 - 20 February 2022

    Solar activity ranged from very low to to moderate. Region 2941
    (N24, L=337, class/area=Eki/370 on 10 Feb) produced both M-class
    (R1-Minor) events during the period, an M1/Sf at 14/1731 UTC and an
    M1/Sf at 15/1815 UTC. The region was the most complex on the visible
    disk during the past week and all significant activity was produced
    as it was rotating around the NW limb. Following its exit from the
    visible disk, a Type II radio sweep was observed from CME produced
    from the vicinity of the region on 18 Feb. The remaining regions on
    the visible disk produced only isolated low-level C-class activity
    and were magnetically simple.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A very weak
    enhancement in the 10 MeV proton flux (well below the S1 threshold)
    was observed on 16 Feb and an additional one on 18 Feb. The weak
    enhancements were likely associated with activity on the far-side of
    the Sun.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
    from normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 14-18 Feb.
    Elevated geomagnetic activity on 19-20 Feb decreased the flux to normal-moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels. During the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS, an
    isolated period of G1 was observed during the 20/0000-0300 UTC
    synoptic period. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12
    nT while the Bz component rotated as far south as -11 nT at 20/0115
    UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to between 500-550 km/s and
    remained elevated through the end of the reporting period. Outside
    of that activity, unsettled conditions were only observed on 16 Feb
    and early on 19 Feb. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    21 February - 19 March 2022

    Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance
    for R1 (Minor) events on 21-23 Feb, from 21 Feb to 06 Mar due to
    flare potential from regions of flux near and just beyond the E
    limb. Very low levels are expected from 07 Mar-19 Mar.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are
    expected on 21-25 Feb, 04-10 Mar and 12-17 Mar. Elevated levels of
    electron flux are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
    The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to
    moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
    (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 03-04
    Mar, 11 Mar and 19 Mar; active conditions are likely on 21 Feb and
    12 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely over 22-23 Feb, 05-06 Mar,
    13 Mar and 18 Mar. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are
    anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
    outlook period is expected to be quiet.

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