XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Feb 14 0327 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 February 2022

Solar activity was at low to moderate (R1-Minor) levels. The
strongest event of the period was an M1/Sn (R1-Minor) flare at
12/0844 UTC from the vicinity of Region 2939 (S15, L=34,
class/area=Dho/500 on 01 Feb). A Type II (642 km/s) and Type IV
radio sweep were associate with the event. A subsequent CME
signature from the W limb was identified and modeled. The results
suggested no Earth-directed component was present. Region 2941 (N24,
L=370, class/area=Eki/370 on 09 Feb) was the largest and most
complex region remaining on the visible disk by the end of the
period. Over the past week the leader and trailer spots changed
little while the intermediate spots were marked mostly by decay. Of
the remaining numbered active regions, only Region 2940 (N22, L=035, class/area=Dki/410 on 01 Feb) produced any C-class X-ray activity,
the largest of which was a C9 flare at 12/1708 UTC as it rotated
around the W limb.

Other activity included a Type II (547 km/s) radio sweep at 13/0218
UTC. The event was associated with a CME signature off the W limb
and was not expected to contain an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 07-11 Feb and 13 Feb, with a maximum flux of 11,400
sfu observed at 08/1535 UTC. Electron flux dropped to normal to
moderate levels on 12 Feb in response to elevated geomagnetic
activity associated transient influence.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor)
levels. Waning negative polarity CH HSS influence produced quiet to
unsettled levels on 07 Feb. 08-09 Feb were quiet. The arrival of
influence from CME that left the Sun on 06 Feb produced a weak
discontinuity in the solar wind, first observed after 09/2011 UTC.
Only isolated unsettled conditions were observed following the
influence of the sheath, which transitioned to the driver around
10/1350 UTC. Subsequent geomagnetic activity increased up to minor
storm levels over 10-11 Feb. A peak total magnetic field strength of
21 nT was observed at 11/1737 UTC, near the end of magnetic cloud.
The maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -13 nT at
10/1503 UTC. A transition from CME influence to a negative polarity
CH HSS was observed around 11/2211 UTC. Wind speeds increased to
near 550 km/s, up from between 375-450 km/s that was observed
through most of the CME. The resulting geomagnetic response was
mostly unsettled on 12-13 Feb, with the exception of an isolated
period of active conditions observed early on 13 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 February - 12 March 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over 14-16 Feb, primarily due
to the flare potential from Region 2941 (N24, L=340,
class/area=Eki/370 on 09 Feb). Activity is expected to drop to very
low levels as the region rotates beyond the W limb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely
on 14-16 Feb, 23-28 Feb, 04-10 Mar and 12 Mar in response to
influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor
storm (G1-Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Minor storm levels are
likely on 23 Feb and 04 Mar; active conditions are likely on 22 Feb,
24 Feb, 03 Mar and 11-12 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 14
Feb, 20 Feb, 25 Feb and 05-06 Mar. All elevated levels of
geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. the remainder of the outlook period is expected
to be quiet.

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