• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 07 - 13 February 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 14 17:00:10 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Feb 14 0327 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    07 - 13 February 2022

    Solar activity was at low to moderate (R1-Minor) levels. The
    strongest event of the period was an M1/Sn (R1-Minor) flare at
    12/0844 UTC from the vicinity of Region 2939 (S15, L=34,
    class/area=Dho/500 on 01 Feb). A Type II (642 km/s) and Type IV
    radio sweep were associate with the event. A subsequent CME
    signature from the W limb was identified and modeled. The results
    suggested no Earth-directed component was present. Region 2941 (N24,
    L=370, class/area=Eki/370 on 09 Feb) was the largest and most
    complex region remaining on the visible disk by the end of the
    period. Over the past week the leader and trailer spots changed
    little while the intermediate spots were marked mostly by decay. Of
    the remaining numbered active regions, only Region 2940 (N22, L=035, class/area=Dki/410 on 01 Feb) produced any C-class X-ray activity,
    the largest of which was a C9 flare at 12/1708 UTC as it rotated
    around the W limb.

    Other activity included a Type II (547 km/s) radio sweep at 13/0218
    UTC. The event was associated with a CME signature off the W limb
    and was not expected to contain an Earth-directed component.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 07-11 Feb and 13 Feb, with a maximum flux of 11,400
    sfu observed at 08/1535 UTC. Electron flux dropped to normal to
    moderate levels on 12 Feb in response to elevated geomagnetic
    activity associated transient influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor)
    levels. Waning negative polarity CH HSS influence produced quiet to
    unsettled levels on 07 Feb. 08-09 Feb were quiet. The arrival of
    influence from CME that left the Sun on 06 Feb produced a weak
    discontinuity in the solar wind, first observed after 09/2011 UTC.
    Only isolated unsettled conditions were observed following the
    influence of the sheath, which transitioned to the driver around
    10/1350 UTC. Subsequent geomagnetic activity increased up to minor
    storm levels over 10-11 Feb. A peak total magnetic field strength of
    21 nT was observed at 11/1737 UTC, near the end of magnetic cloud.
    The maximum southward deflection of the Bz component was -13 nT at
    10/1503 UTC. A transition from CME influence to a negative polarity
    CH HSS was observed around 11/2211 UTC. Wind speeds increased to
    near 550 km/s, up from between 375-450 km/s that was observed
    through most of the CME. The resulting geomagnetic response was
    mostly unsettled on 12-13 Feb, with the exception of an isolated
    period of active conditions observed early on 13 Feb.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 February - 12 March 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
    M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over 14-16 Feb, primarily due
    to the flare potential from Region 2941 (N24, L=340,
    class/area=Eki/370 on 09 Feb). Activity is expected to drop to very
    low levels as the region rotates beyond the W limb.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely
    on 14-16 Feb, 23-28 Feb, 04-10 Mar and 12 Mar in response to
    influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
    outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor
    storm (G1-Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Minor storm levels are
    likely on 23 Feb and 04 Mar; active conditions are likely on 22 Feb,
    24 Feb, 03 Mar and 11-12 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 14
    Feb, 20 Feb, 25 Feb and 05-06 Mar. All elevated levels of
    geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple,
    recurrent CH HSSs. the remainder of the outlook period is expected
    to be quiet.

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