• ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 11 13:49:28 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP06
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 11, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    Three new sunspot groups appeared this week, on February 3, 6 and 8.
    Average daily sunspot number rose slightly from 81.3 last week to
    83.9 in this reporting week, February 3-9.

    Average daily solar flux increased from 123.1 to 126, also a modest
    change.

    Solar flares and geomagnetic storms through the week raised the
    average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle
    latitude A index, measured at one location in Virginia, went from
    6.4 to 9.6.

    At 0523 UTC on February 11 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
    issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "A recurrent coronal hole
    is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible
    minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."

    A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of the low earth
    orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially
    robust. But from February 3-4, the high latitude college A index
    measured near Fairbanks, Alaska was 48 and 61, respectively, a level
    that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.

    NN4X sent this on the LEO satellites loss:

    https://bit.ly/3GCIQkd

    Normally we think of geo-storms as a negative event regarding HF
    propagation, but not always, as sometimes there is propagation via
    bouncing signals off the aurora.

    K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting
    titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW.

    "Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora sounding. Point 'em North
    boys."

    "All aurora sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds
    of auroral propagation, and then advice to point your antenna north
    to propagate signals via the aurora.

    W7YED responded:

    "Yeah, I saw 2 SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10m FT8. One
    worked an XE, lasted about 5 minutes then went away. And now back to
    the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are
    looking up on 10!"

    So far in the year 2022 sunspots were visible on every day. Last
    year 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless,
    according to spaceweather.com.

    Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on
    February 11-12, 112 on February 13-14, 110 on February 15-16, 112 on
    February 17, 115 on February 18-19, 118 on February 20, 120 on
    February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 120 on February 26 through
    March 4, then 115 and 122 on March 5-6, 120 on March 7-9, 110 on
    March 10-11, 115 on March 12-18, 118 on March 19, and 120 on March
    20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22 and 25 on February 11-14,
    then 20, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on February 15-19, then 5, 10, 8, 5, 8 and
    12 on February 20-25, then 8 on February 26-27, 5 on February 28 to
    March 2, then 12, 10, 15 and 10 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-11, then
    25 and 20 on March 12-13, 5 on March 14-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on
    March 16-18.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936
    on January 29, accompanied by LDE (long-running event) see: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary, which
    caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink
    satellites launched into low Earth orbit from the Kennedy Space
    Center in Florida on February 3.

    "As a result, 40 of them did not get into the planned orbit and then
    burned in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch
    the Falcon 9 is $30 million dollars, one satellite is half a million
    dollars, total damage to Elon Musk costs $50 million dollars.

    "Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models
    expected. More accurate predictions of further developments are
    complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving
    active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason, too, we
    cannot rely on the twenty-seven-day periodicity, which is otherwise
    a good tool for compiling forecasts.

    "If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major
    disturbance on 13-14 February. The beginning of calm can be expected
    since February 16 and quiet days since February 19. Solar flux
    should not fall below 100 or rise too high above 130."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, with a great update, all 93 minutes:

    https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg

    N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:

    "I was active in the VT, MN, and BC QSO Parties this past weekend.
    Conditions were excellent to MN on 20M with loud signals from 1500
    UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles
    were very good copy, many quite loud on 20M. 40M suffered from D/E
    layer absorption with almost all MN signals below my noise level
    from 1700-2030 UTC. 80M was open well before MN sunset with workable
    signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC.

    "15 and even 10 M were open to British Columbia both weekend days.
    The peak of 10M propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days with
    Saturday being better on both 20 and 15M. Several BC 10M signals
    were over S9 on Saturday. There were many USA Rocky Mountain area
    and west coast signals on the band as well. 20M conditions were
    excellent Saturday from 1600-2400 UTC. 15/10 were slow to open
    Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.

    "Propagation to VT was about as expected, some loud signals
    0000-0030 UTC on 40M, VT stations on 75/80M were mostly loud. 160M
    signals were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening
    like last year, 20M was open on backscatter only and W1JXN was
    worked on 15M CW backscatter just above the noise.

    "Sunday morning, the 6th there was a good opening to southern Europe
    on 10M. I had a SSB run from 1515-1550 UTC working Croatia,
    Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many
    signals were over S9. 12M in the past few days has been open to at
    least southern EU daily.

    "Last Friday, February 4, 10M was wide open to New Caledonia from
    2130-2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX
    on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western USA."

    Images of recent sunspot regions:

    http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&p=321591

    Study offers explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly
    referred to as "Solar Flames":

    https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9, 2022 were 84, 87, 91, 83,
    78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. 10.7 cm flux was 126.5, 129.6,
    125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of
    14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with
    a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 10 11:37:51 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP06
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 10, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

    Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
    two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
    6, and two more on February 8.

    On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

    Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
    sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
    average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

    On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
    above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
    compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
    average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
    middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

    The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
    the reporting week.

    The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
    actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
    you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
    the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
    then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
    145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
    125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
    150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
    on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 10-11, then 5
    on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
    February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
    on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
    15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
    17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

    "Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
    expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
    fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
    eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
    AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
    bursts before we could observe it.

    "Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
    will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
    activity will continue.

    "On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
    appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
    shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
    following days.

    "Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
    activity starting on February 6.

    "The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
    the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
    will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

    Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
    He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
    Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
    solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

    Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
    download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
    updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
    bulletin.

    He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

    The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
    copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

    The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
    spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

    Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/40J3g6m

    https://bit.ly/3lojTnY

    KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9

    Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

    "Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

    "I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
    Yagi just after February 1.

    "Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
    signals took such an upturn in strength.

    "Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
    when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM,
    HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND,
    PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many
    more, all on 10 meters.

    "But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
    2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

    "First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
    much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
    answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
    well but he came back to me.

    "Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
    I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
    there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

    "I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
    QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
    K3."

    A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
    surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
    with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

    Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
    of existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP

    https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz

    A more reliable source:

    https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

    https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
    139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
    134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
    12, with a mean of 7.6.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 9 10:36:13 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP06
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 9, 2024
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    Over the recent reporting week, February 1-7, ten new sunspot groups
    emerged, five on February 1, one on February 2, another on February
    3, two on February 5, and one more on February 7. On February 8, two
    more emerged.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose, and geomagnetic numbers were
    quiet.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 71.8 to 142.3, and
    average daily solar flux from 145.4 to 165.5.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quieter. Average daily planetary A index
    decreased from 6.9 to 5.1, and average middle latitude numbers from
    5.6 to 4.4.

    Now let's see what the outlook might be over the next few weeks,
    with data from the US Air Force and NOAA.

    Predicted solar flux is 180 on February 9, then 175, 175, 180 and
    175 on February 10-13, 178 on February 14-15, 170 on February 16,
    160 on February 17-21, then 165 and 160 on February 22-23, 150 on
    February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165 on February 29 through March
    2, 170 on March 3-5, 160 on March 6-9, 170 on March 10, 165 on March
    11-13, 170 on March 14, and 160 on March 15-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on February 9-11, 5 on
    February 12-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on February
    28 through March 2, 10 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-23.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "As recently as early January, it appeared that the peak of the
    current eleven-year cycle would soon be passed, or perhaps even
    passed late last year. But January's upsurge in solar activity led
    us astray, and February, it seems, could be even more lively.

    "Surprise number two is that although we are seeing moderate flares
    on the Sun, some of which are proton flares and a few of which are
    accompanied by CMEs, the solar wind around the Earth is intensifying
    little.

    "Surprise number three, though related to the previous one, is the
    decline in the Earth's magnetic field activity for more than a
    month.

    "Finally, surprise number four is that although solar activity is
    relatively high, while geomagnetic activity is low, the shortwave
    propagation conditions (as defined at frequencies of 3-30 MHz) are
    not nearly as good as we have become accustomed to during decades of
    similar developments.

    "Even from the proton solar flare with CME ejection observed on
    February 6, we expect the Earth to be hit by an enhanced solar wind
    with a subsequent, at least slight, rise in geomagnetic field
    activity. This should occur between evening hours of UTC 9 February,
    and the following morning. So, the question is slowly emerging
    whether it will be more of a surprise if the disturbance starts or
    if it doesn't."

    Reader David Moore sent this article about slow moving solar flares:

    https://bit.ly/498uM16

    Articles about the consequences of a modern Carrington Event:

    https://bit.ly/49vdPgW

    https://bit.ly/3wf09bS

    Two stories about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/4bzFQpM

    https://bit.ly/3UztJTd

    Nice pictures of a Big Sunspot:

    https://solarchatforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=43915

    https://bit.ly/3uvFJL5

    Our first Solar Maximum?

    https://www.sidc.be/article/first-sc25-maximum

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/dKZ-qeDbxkc

    Solar news articles:

    https://bit.ly/3uqpnmV

    https://bit.ly/3SMk8Y1

    https://bit.ly/3SPqwxD

    https://bit.ly/4bw6j7y

    https://bit.ly/49Kyoq7

    https://bit.ly/42v9xns

    https://bit.ly/3SzUzrQ

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 1 through 7 2024 were 113, 131, 123,
    138, 152, 175, and 164, with a mean of 142.3. 10.7 cm flux was
    136.9, 142.6, 156.4, 170.4, 173.4, 190.3, and 188.4, with a mean of
    165.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 4,
    with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 5, 6, 8,
    and 3, with a mean of 4.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

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