• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 31 January - 06 Fe

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 7 13:00:14 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Feb 07 0321 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    31 January - 06 February 2022

    Solar activity was at low levels with many C-class flares observed.
    The largest flare of the period was a C9 at 01/2236 UTC from Region
    2939 (S16, L=32, class/area Dho/300 on 02 Feb). Region 2939 also
    produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 06/1341 UTC. Filament
    structure suspended above the region, approximately 10 degrees long
    and centered near S20W05 at the time of the event, lifted-off during
    the flare. The event was subsequently detected in LASCO C2 beginning
    at around 06/1436 UTC, and is predicted to hit Earth. Initial
    analysis determined 10 Feb to be the likely timing to arrive at
    Earth. Regions 2936 (N17, L=116, class/area Ehi/750 on 31 Jan) 2940
    (N17, L=35, class/area Dao/320 no 02 Feb), and 2941 (N24, L=340,
    class/area Eho/300 on 05 Feb) also contributed several C-class
    flares each.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 31 Jan, 01 Feb due to influences from a CH HSS. High
    levels were also observed on 04-06 Feb due to influences from a CME.
    Normal to moderate levels were observed on 02-03 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03-04
    Feb due to impacts from a CME that left the Sun on 29 Jan. Active
    levels were reached late on 01 Feb and 02 Feb due to arrival of the aforementioned CME. Active levels were also reached early on 06 Feb
    due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to
    unsettled levels were observed on 31 Jan and 05 Feb.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    07 February - 05 March 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance
    for M-class flares on 07-11 Feb due to the flare potential of
    Regions 2940 and 2941. Very low to low levels are expected on 12 Feb
    - 05 Mar.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 07-20 Feb, and 27 Feb - 05 Mar due
    to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are
    expected on 21- 26 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm
    levels on 10-11 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of an assymetric
    full halo CME that left the Sun on 06 Feb. G1 levels are also
    expected on 13-14 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Active
    levels are expected on 18, 25 Feb, and 03, 05 Mar due to recurrent
    CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the
    remaining days in the highlight period.

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