• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 24 - 30 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 31 13:00:11 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Jan 31 0335 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    24 - 30 January 2022

    Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long duration M1
    flare observed at 29/2332 UTC from Region 2936 (N17, L=116,
    class/area Ekc/720 on 30 Jan). Associated with this event was a 10cm
    (320 sfu) radio event and assymetric full halo CME, first visible in
    LASCO C2 imagery at 29/2336 UTC. Forecaster analysis/WSA Enlil
    modeling determined this CME to arrive at Earth late on 01 Feb.
    Region 2936 also produced numerous (31) C-class flares. Regions 2939
    (S15, L=37, class/area Cso/120 on 30 Jan) and 2940 (N17, L=37,
    class/area are unkown due to foreshortening at the east limb) also
    produced C-class activity during the period.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit during the
    highlight period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 24 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to
    moderate levels were observed on 25-30 Jan.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 28-29 Jan due to
    influences from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
    levels were observed on 24-27, and 30 Jan.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    31 January - 26 February 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a
    chance for islolated M-class flares on 31 Jan - 05 Feb due to the
    flare potential from Region 2936 (N17, L=116, class/area Ekc/720 on
    30 Jan). Very low to low levels are expected on 06-26 Feb as Region
    2936 rotates to the far side of the disk.

    There is a slight chance for a proton event at geosynchronous orbit
    while Region 2936 is on the visible disk (31 Jan - 05 Feb). No
    proton events are otherwise expected during the outlook period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 03-05 Feb, 12-14 Feb, and 18-20 Feb
    all due to influences from recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal to
    moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-G2
    (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 02 Feb due to the anticipated
    arrival of the full halo CME from 29 Jan. Active to G1 levels are
    expected on 05 Feb due to influences from a recurrent CH HSS. Active
    levels are expected on 06, 10, 18, and 25 Feb all due to recurrent
    CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the
    remaining days of the period.

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