1. Forum
  2. Usenet
  3. REC.RADIO.AMATEUR.DX

  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 10 - 16 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 17 13:00:28 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Jan 17 0208 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    10 - 16 January 2022

    Solar activity ranged from very low to isolated moderate levels.
    Very low to low levels were observed on 10-13 Jan with weak C-class
    events observed from beyond the NE limb. An isolated R1 (Minor)
    radio blackout event was observed from beyond the NE limb at 14/0203
    UTC that peaked at M1. Additional weak C-class activity was observed
    from this same unnumbered region on 14 Jan. Region 2925 (S34, L=008,
    class/area Dso/240 on 05 Jan) produced a C4/1f at 14/1334 UTC. An
    associated CME was observed off the SW limb with a potential
    glancing blow expected at Earth on 17 Jan. Low level activity was
    observed on 15 Jan from Region 2924 (S31, L=038, class/area Ehi/430
    on 08 Jan) and Region 2932 (N31, L=245, class/area Cro/020 on 15
    Jan). 16 Jan witnessed additional C-class activity from Region 2930
    (N20, L=320, class/area Dso/100 on 16 Jan) and an LDE C2/Sf from
    Region 2929. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However,
    there was a weak enhancement to 1.7 pfu observed at 15/2115 UTC,
    possibly associated with shock passage from the 14 Jan CME.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was
    at moderate levels on 10-15 Jan and at high levels on 16 Jan with a
    maximum flux of 2,280 pfu observed at 16/1910 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 10 Jan
    through midday on 14 Jan. By midday to late on 14 Jan, activity
    increased to unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due
    to a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Imbedded in this
    activity was a possibly transient from an earlier, undetected CME.
    Activity levels remained enhanced to G1 (Minor) storm levels on
    15-16 Jan due to continued negative polarity CH HSS effects.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    17 January - 12 February 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a
    slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, on 17-21 Jan due to
    the complexity of Region 2929. Very low to low levels are expected
    on 22 Jan - 02 Feb. Very low to low levels, with a slight chance for
    R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, is expected on 03-12 Feb with the
    potential return of old Region 2929.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 17-23 Jan and again on 12 Feb due
    to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are
    expected on 24 Jan - 11 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
    18, 24-26, 28-30 Jan, 05, 10 and 12 Feb, with active levels expected
    on 17 Jan, 04, and 11 Feb, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)