• ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jan 14 16:49:51 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP02
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 14, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning at 2355 UTC
    on January 13:

    "A Southern coronal hole with extensions into the equatorial region
    is expected to reach geoeffective location on the solar disk on late
    UT day 15 January. As a result, unsettled to active conditions with
    a chance of minor storms are possible on these two days."

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9 and another on January
    12, then three more on January 13. Average daily sunspot numbers
    rose 6 points this week, to 42.4, and average daily solar flux
    increased from 91.4 to 101.6.

    Another positive sign yesterday, January 13, the daily sunspot
    number soared to 111, far above the recent weekly average, and the
    highest number since Christmas Day 2021.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter this week, with average daily
    planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily
    middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.

    Spaceweather.com reported the new solar cycle is performing better
    than expected, and used this illustration:

    https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI

    They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15
    straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021
    was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by
    the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

    Higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm
    caused by co-rotating interaction regions. See
    https://bit.ly/3KahWmI

    Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120
    on January 21-24 and again around mid-February. Predicted values are
    106, 108 and 110 on January 14-16, 108 on January 17-18, 106 and 104
    on January 19-20, 120 on January 21-24, 110 on January 25, 100 on
    January 26-27, then 95 and 90 on January 28-29, 85 on January 30
    through February 1, 95 and 105 on February 2-3, 100 on February 4-5,
    102 on February 6-7, 105 on February 8, 110 on February 9-10, 115 on
    February 11-12, and 120 on February 13-20. Flux values are expected
    to dip below 90 after February 25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 14, then 14, 24, 12 and
    8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-22, 10 on January 23, 8 on
    January 24-26, 5 on January 27, 10 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31
    through February 3, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 4-6, 5 on February
    7-11, then 12, 10 and 8 on February 12-14, then 5 on February 15-18,
    10 on February 19, and 8 on February 20-21.

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere-January 13, 2022.

    "The current view of the distribution of active areas in the Sun
    seems at first glance to be relatively simple. Current activity
    should keep solar flux above 100 SFU. Other active areas beyond the
    eastern limb of the solar disk, which we see thanks to the Stereo
    satellite, should increase it somewhere to about 120 SFU soon. The
    key feature for the influence towards the Earth is the prominence of
    the southern polar coronal hole, which will be responsible for
    increasing of the enhanced speed of the solar wind and the activity
    of the Earth's magnetic field in the coming days. This is a
    recurring event that will take place around January 16. After that
    we expect a decline in solar activity at the end of January and the
    beginning of February."

    N2CG wrote:

    "On Monday January 10th 2022 around 1600 UTC I went on the DXMAPS
    Website and clicked on the '50 MHz' tab and to my surprise found
    that there was a very strong in progress 6m FT8 opening between
    Florida and my NNJ FN20 QTH and the PA/NY/CT and Southern New
    England area. Over the next 2-1/2 hours I casually made 6m FT8
    contacts with 12 Florida stations in addition to C6ACB in FL15 and
    CM2RSV in EL83. The band continued to be open from morning into the
    afternoon and evening and finally closed at around midnight local
    time, 0500 UTC.

    "The next day January 11 6m again opened up on FT8 mode although not
    as concentrated to Florida from my QTH. I worked stations on 6m FT8
    in FL, GA, SC, OK and AR. At 2022 UTC I worked XE2X in EL06 on 6m
    FT8."

    K9LA commented on the question from W1VTP about poor local 75 meter
    propagation in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin.

    "I'm active in the Indiana CW traffic net (QIN) and the Ninth Region
    Net (9RN). We can also have problems on 80m in the winter months -
    especially when we're still near solar minimum. Our Plan B is to
    move to 160m, and that always works.

    "Yes, it's due to the nighttime F2 region electron density being too
    low to support high angle signals. I wrote about this in my April
    2020 Monthly Feature on my website."

    See https://bit.ly/3Fr4B66 for more details.

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/AEhz4zfxre4

    Local newspaper article about solar cycle progress with a nice solar
    image:

    https://bit.ly/3K8HK2O

    Even Forbes has a solar update:

    https://bit.ly/3qp0Olo

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for January 6 through 12, 2022 were 35, 38, 31, 36,
    38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. 10.7 cm flux was 93.7, 107.3,
    102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of
    6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a
    mean of 4.1.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jan 13 10:18:22 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP02
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 13, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
    be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
    by far the all time largest.

    But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
    emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
    about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

    Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
    forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

    There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
    January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
    8, another on January 9 two more January 10 and still another on
    January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
    daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
    days.

    On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
    above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
    middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

    Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
    Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
    42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
    10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

    The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
    the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
    numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

    Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
    204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
    135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
    155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
    February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
    180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
    February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
    increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
    January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
    then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
    on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
    February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
    January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
    States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

    "Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
    (EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
    January 6.

    "High Solar Activity this week."

    N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

    https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
    region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
    eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
    arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
    Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
    turns back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
    left the Sun.

    "In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
    erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
    flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

    "Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
    it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
    seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
    January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
    sunspot group AR3186.

    "As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
    Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
    importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
    difficult to predict accurately."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
    Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
    then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

    "Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
    difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
    perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

    "Time UTC: Callsign: Grid: Miles
    1346 G3YPZ JO02bs 3,494
    1354,1528 G4RIE IO83rn 3,372
    1413,1521 2E0PLO IO91wm 3,511
    1600 EA2CCG IN92ao 3,660
    1813 KP4NVX FK68vl 1,625"

    Here is a photo of the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR

    One of a Solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3W9EWav

    Solar news in the Washington Post:

    https://wapo.st/3iul6sN

    An article on Radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV

    The Parker Solar Probe:

    https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
    142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
    172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
    with a mean of 6.1.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jan 12 12:26:34 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP02
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 12, 2024
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    Eight new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, January
    4-10.

    Four new sunspot groups appeared on January 5, another two on
    January 7 and two more on January 9.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 63.4 to 146.1, and average
    daily solar flux went from 141.9 to 163.3.

    Geomagnetic indicators declined, with planetary A index going from
    6.7 to 4.9, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to 4.3.

    Predicted solar flux over the near term is 192, 190 and 186 on
    January 12-14, 188 on January 15-16, then 186 and 184 on January
    17-18, 150 on January 19-21, then 145 and 140 on January 22-23, 135
    on January 24-26, then 130 and 135 on January 27-28, 140 on January
    29-31, then 150, 160, 165 and 150 on February 1-4, 155 on February
    5-6, 160 on February 7, then 155 on February 8-10, then 160, 165,
    160 and 155 on February 11-14, and 150 on February 15-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12, 8 on January 13-14,
    5, 5, 10 and 8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-27, 8 on January
    28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 3, then 10, 10 and 8 on
    February 4-6, and 5 on February 7-22.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 11, 2024 from OK1HH.

    "Since the beginning of the 25th Solar Cycle (December 2019), we
    observed 782 sunspot groups, and almost half of them (361) last
    year. Most forecasters believe that the solar maximum will occur in
    2024.

    "The exception is the Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre, whose 'OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES'
    table, published on January 4, already showed the probable highest
    SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER = 126.4 last November.

    "It should fall further until R = 15.5 in December 2029. But I
    believe solar activity will continue to rise and that we have a
    second maximum ahead of us, no later than 2025.

    "Now there is usually at least one active region on the Sun with an
    unstable magnetic field 'beta-gamma,' capable of producing flares of
    moderate magnitude, possibly with CMEs.

    "Any large flares would be the exception, and proton flares would be
    even more of an exception.

    "Among the more significant moderate-magnitude eruptions accompanied
    by CMEs is the M3.8/2n class event of 4 January at 0155 UTC, which
    produced the Dellinger event (SWF or Shortwave Fadeout) over
    Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. There was silence at
    frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes. This flare took
    place in the northeastern solar disk (N04E39), while the CME missed
    the Earth.

    "Other developments on the Sun were quieter, which contributed to a
    relatively long interval of geomagnetic quiet since 4 January
    onwards. At the same time, the intensity of solar radiation
    increased. The result was progressively improving shortwave
    propagation. But seven major active regions can now be counted on
    the Sun's far side. Once they emerge onto the solar disk the
    situation will change."

    NASA's SDO reveals hidden solar storm threat to Earth:

    https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU

    Interesting application for use with Mobile Radio:

    https://www.ve2dbe.com/

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this page:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 2024 were 64, 121, 149,
    171, 152, 183, and 183, with a mean of 146.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    125.8, 152.7, 159.4, 167.1, 176.2, 175.9, and 186, with a mean of
    163.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 7,
    with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5,
    and 7, with a mean of 4.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)