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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 27 December - 02 J

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 3 13:00:12 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Jan 03 0417 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    27 December - 02 January 2022

    Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Moderate levels
    were observed on 28 Dec due to an M1 flare at 0401 UTC and an M1/Sf
    at 1611 UTC from Region 2918 (N19, L=211, Class/area Dki/280 on 25
    Dec). Region 2918 also produced another M1 flare at 0730 UTC on 01
    Jan as it was rotating off the NW limb. The largest region on the
    disk was Region 2916 (S15, L=189, class/area Ekc/480 on 27 Dec) and
    was responsible for 2 M-class flares on 21 Dec, but only managed 1
    C-class flare this reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
    observed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit only
    reached high levels on 27 Dec with a peak flux of 3,210 pfu observed
    at 27/1325 UTC. The rest of the period, the electron flux was at
    normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
    period began with a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed
    stream (CH HSS) that began after 27/0833 UTC. Total field reached a
    maximum of 15 nT at 27/1357 UTC followed by a maximum solar wind
    speed of 538 km/s at 28/1224 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded
    with quiet to active levels on 27 Dec followed by quiet to unsettled
    levels on 28 Dec. On 29 Dec, a late enhancement in total field
    reaching 21 nT at 30/0036 UTC was followed by a brief increase in
    solar wind speed to 515 km/s. The geomagnetic response was quiet to
    unsettled on 29-30 Dec. Solar wind conditions began to wane on 31
    Dec with only quiet levels observed. On 01-02 Dec another positive
    polarity CH HSS was observed beginning at approximately 01/0115 UTC.
    Total field increased to around 10 nT while the solar wind increased
    to near 530 km/s by 01/0900 UTC. Solar wind speed remained enhanced
    through the rest of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with
    quiet to active levels on 01 Jan followed by quiet to unsettled
    levels on 02 Jan.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    03 January - 29 January 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through
    15 Jan. There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2,
    Minor-Moderate) on 16-29 Jan with the return of old Regions 2916 and
    2918.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 19-23 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS
    influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
    03, 11-12, 15-18, 23-26, and 28-29 Jan and reach active levels on 16
    Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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