XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 28, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was way up this week, and it was reflected in on-air
activity, especially on 10 meters. If only the ARRL 10 Meter Contest
were held a week later!

Average daily sunspot number jumped 100 points, from 24.4 last week
to 124.4 in the current reporting week, December 16-22.

Average daily solar flux increased from 82.9 to 125.

Average planetary A index went from 5 to 9.1, and average middle
latitude A index from 3.9 to 6.4.

It was great looking at Spaceweather.com every day and seeing the
Sun covered with spots.

Predicted solar flux over the next week looks quite promising, with
daily solar flux over 100 until the end of the year, then rising
above 100 on January 16-22, 2022. But the outlook issued on
Thursday, December 23 wasn't as optimistic as the one issued the
previous day.

Flux values are predicted at 130, 125, 120, 115 and 113 on December
24-28, then 110 on December 29-30, 85 on December 31, 2021, then 83,
81, 80 and 81 on January 1-4, 2022, 82 on January 5-6, then 83, 86,
90 and 92 on January 7-10, 95 on January 11-12, 96 on January 13-15,
then jumping up to 115 on January 16-17, then 114, 111 and 110 on
January 18-20, 108, 102 and 95 on January 21-23, then 90, 88, 87 and
85 on January 24-27, then dropping to a low of 80 on January 30
before rising above 90 after the first week in February.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 16, 8, 10 and 12 on December
24-29, 8 on December 30-31, 2021, then 5 on January 1-8, 2022, then
8 and 5 on January 9-10, 10 on January 11-12, 5 on January 13-14,
then 8, 12, 18, 12 and 8 on January 15-19, 5 on January 20-22, then
8, 10, 8 and 8 on January 23-26, and 5 on January 27 through
February 4.

These observations from J.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Unlike meteorologists, for example, we do not have reliable models
of the Sun's behavior and subsequent changes in the Earth's
magnetosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, we did not expect the
current increase in activity. On the other hand, we can consider
them as another promise of a higher maximum of the 25th cycle.

"Most spots are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, M-class
flares are observed in both hemispheres, the solar flux has climbed
from the minimum to the highest values in two weeks and the speed of
the solar wind remaining increased in ten days.

"Geomagnetic activity increased relatively only slightly, only after
the spot activity moved to the western half of the solar disk. These
changes were mostly favorable for the changes in the shortwave
propagation conditions. Before the beginning of the ascent, as
shortest the 18 MHz band was regularly opened for the DX contacts,
while in last days the 21 MHz band is opened relatively reliably.

"As a result of the eruptions of previous days, the Earth's magnetic
field activity should increase around December 24th and then
probably again on 27th.

"Before the end of the year, there will return a significant
decrease in solar activity. Its next growth is expected around
mid-January."

Thanks to KH6CP for this tip on the new WindCube satellite:

https://bit.ly/3yWtVPH

W9NY wrote from Chicago:

"Even though conditions were disappointing for most of the ARRL 10
Meter Contest weekend, there were sporadic openings all over the
United States from my Dune Acres location and for a few minutes at a
time signals from both the Colorado and California areas were very
strong. I also worked a number of stations in South America, but
only Puerto Rico in the Caribbean.

"On Sunday 12/19/21 10 meters really opened up for a while. I first
heard a W6 beacon in the morning coming in S9 and not a signal on
the band. After one CQ at 28.420 I started a long string of
contacts in the late morning, and again mid-afternoon. Some West
coast stations running just 100 watts to dipoles were coming in 20
over S9 - just like the good old days.

"Made some contacts on 12 meters too. I heard NOTHING on 6 meters.

"I am looking forward to 10 meters using my MFJ loop from Miami
Beach the 1st 3 months of 2022."

KA3JAW monitors 11 meters for sporadic-E. On December 23 he wrote:

"Wednesday, December 22, 2021 there was a six-hour multi-hop
transatlantic sporadic-E event into western Europe on the 11 meter
band from 1326-1929 UTC.

"Solar flux index hit its highest point in the current solar cycle
at 140. This was due to 9 sunspot groups; 2907, 2908, 2909, 2911,
2912, 2915, 2916, 2917, and 2918."

He also wrote:

"Sunday, December 19, 2021 was a crazy eight hour single and
multi-hop sporadic-E day on the 11 meter band from 11:23 AM till
7:37 PM EST; 1623 UTC December 19th - 0037 UTC December 20th.

"During noontime, western Canada prairie provinces plus US west
coast stations were rolling into the US northeast region.

"From 5:22 PM to 6:20 PM Es conditions were deteriorating with
increased background noise conditions until the last station from
Golden Valley, Arizona was heard at 7:37 PM.

"Seems that the secondary sporadic-E winter season has begun."

On December 19, Steve Sacco (who did not give a call sign) wrote,
regarding 10 meters:

"I've never seen so many KL7s on at once. So far, have worked two,
plus VE8CK and VY1FC.

"PSKR showing the band open from my location to Europe and KL7 and
JA and VK at 2215 UTC on 12/19/2021. JA3REX worked at 2217 UTC.

"If only this happened LAST weekend!"

N0JK wrote:

"I was on 6M MSK144 the morning of December 14 at the peak of the
Geminids Meteor shower. 50.260 MHz was busy. Worked WI9WI, WG0G and
KF0Y in rare grid DN92 around 1400 UTC. All random contacts.

"Also checked 50.245 for W5A (EL15). Some flickers on the screen,
but no decodes."

W8TJM of Liberty Lake, Washington commented on his December 19
activity on 15 meters:

"As soon as I got my 15 meter half-wave vertical antenna up at my
low-noise site at 1915 UTC, I worked OH6RM in Finland. He was S5-S7
with very little QSB and we had a solid 25 minute QSO and then I
listened to his contacts off and on for another hour. I also had an
enjoyable contact with Per, SM2LIY at 1950 UTC and he was also
S5-S7, but had a very fast flutter on his signal that was
consistent. I heard no European stations."

Carl, K9LA commented:

"The paths that Toivo and Per commented on can be two different
mechanisms depending on where the US station is. I wrote about this
(called the Santa Claus Polar Path) in my monthly column on my
website back in 2014."

http://www.k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf .

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a new forecast on December 23 with a
video lasting 96 minutes:

https://youtu.be/PfPi5cYR31Q

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 16 through 22, 2021 were 127, 119, 117,
109, 115, 147, and 137, with a mean of 124.4. 10.7 cm flux was
117.9, 120.9, 121.3, 115.3, 122.7, 136.6, and 140.4, with a mean of
125. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 4, 12, 16, 10, and 11,
with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 2, 8, 13, 7,
and 8, with a mean of 6.4.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 30, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

This reporting week (December 22-28) saw declining solar numbers and
rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped
from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average
planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers
from 5.1 to 12.6.

Predicted solar flux is 164 and 162 on December 30-31, 160 January
1-3, 2023, 158 on January 4, 156 on January 5-6, 140 on January 7-8,
136 on January 9, 130 on January 10-14, then 128 and 125 on January
15-16, 120 on January 17-20, then 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134 and
132 on January 21-27, 130 on January 28-29, 135 on January 30, and
140 on January 31 through February 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 10 and 8 on December 30, 2022
through January 2, 2023, 5 and 14 on January 3-4, then 18, 18 and 10
on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-16, then 8, 12, 25 and 20 on January
17-20, 10 on January 21-22, then 20, 15, 10, 15 and 12 on January
23-27, and 10, 5 and 18 on January 28-30, then then 10, 10, 8 and 10
on January 31 through February 3, and a nice quiet 5 beyond that,
perhaps until mid-February.

The observatory at Penticton, British Columbia is the source for our
solar flux numbers, and the staff leaves annually from Christmas to
New Years. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon
readings from this source:

https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1

Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24 and no readings
were posted after Christmas Eve.

Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion
Radio Astrophysical Observatory for monitoring his email while on
holiday and supplying us with the four days of missing data.

From Thomas Bayer, RWC Prague at the Budkov Observatory:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January
05, 2023.

"Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2-3
Unsettled: Dec 30-31, Jan 3-5
Active: Dec 31-Jan 1, Jan 3-5
Minor storm: Jan 3-4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

"We expect a transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the
coming two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic
activity enhancement again with a possible active event.

"The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4
in connection with coronal hole 60/-3.

"Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions
generally."

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023.

"A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would
remain so until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had
relatively stable magnetic fields, not enough to generate major
flares.

At the same time, a series of geomagnetically disturbed days
continued until 27 December, with highly variable and
difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave propagation.
Average days were irregularly interspersed with above-average ones.

"From December 25, sunspot group AR3169 suddenly began to increase.
Trailing behind it is AR3171, and both are now approaching the
western edge of the solar disk.

"The CME observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament
explosion, likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the
slow decline in solar wind speed during the third decade (ten day
period) of December.

"According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class
geomagnetic storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic
field is likely to hit the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). We
expect increased geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher
latitudes again.

"Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the
far side of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their
heliographic longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk.
Therefore, total solar activity should not drop much anytime soon."

Another over-the-top article describing flares as existential
threats.

https://bit.ly/3Wy8BuZ

Unusual solar events:

https://bit.ly/3hTQiS0

Big 2022 solar news:

https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-stories-2022

A New Year's forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space
Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/XYIxYsQ2SUk

Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day
is Straight Key Night:

http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022 were 108, 100, 85,
107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.3,
127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5,
with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19,
16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 29, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

The recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive
solar numbers, with solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in
decline. This happens from time to time.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only
three new sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on
December 27. On Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and
the sunspot number increased from 78 to 83.

Average daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30,
140 on December 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on
January 5-7, 155 on January 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on
January 12-16, 180 on January 17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145
on January 22-26, then 140 on January 27-30, and 150 on January 31
to February 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29
through January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 on
January 8-10, then 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on
January 26-29, and 5 on January 30 through February 3.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but
whose magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar
flares, up to moderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but
they may not hit the Earth at all.

"On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At
least one of them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its
velocity, the collision with Earth was predicted to December 27.
However, nothing happened, and despite the extension of the
prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calm continued
on 28 December.

"For many days now there has been such a large active region on the
Sun's far side that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun.
In addition, it has been observed by NASA's Mars Perseverance rover
camera. While it is primarily designed to see if there is dust in
the air, it can see large sunspots and, most importantly, the sun's
far side is now visible from Mars.

"So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the
northeastern solar disk shortly after the New Year. It will be a
significant contributor to the further rise in solar activity in the
days ahead. Furthermore, longer term forecasts are calling for high
solar activity in the second half of January. So perhaps we will
finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions."

Don't forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New
Years Day (UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left
Coast where I live. Operate CW in a casual event using your straight
key or semi-automatic bug.

Recent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE

Sun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA

Aurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5

2023 solar activity:

http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd https://bit.ly/3RYngj1

Cosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR

Larger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB

Tamitha Skov's latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123,
113, 98, 94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6,
186.7, 174.2, 183.4, 166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4,
with a mean of 4.
NNNN
/EX

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