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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 13 - 19 December 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 20 13:00:12 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2021 Dec 20 0238 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    13 - 19 December 2021

    Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels throughout
    the week. Very low activity levels (B-class flares) were observed on
    13 Dec, with low levels (C-class flares) observed on 14-16, 18-19
    Dec. Moderate solar activity was observed on 17 Dec due to an M1/1f
    flare at 17/0051 UTC from Region 2911 (N19, L=273, class/area=Cao/80
    on 17 Dec), which was the largest event of the period. In addition
    to the single M-class flare, Region 2911 along with Regions 2907
    (S19, L=315, class/area=Dki/310 on 18 Dec) and 2909 (S21, L=285, class/area=Dso/210 on 17 Dec) were prolific C-class flare producers
    throughout the week. A number of CMEs were observed off the SE
    quadrant throughout the week, but no obvious transient solar wind
    signatures were observed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 13 Dec, with normal to moderate levels observed over
    14-19 Dec.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
    levels on 19 Dec due to what was thought to be CIR effects preceding
    negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions
    were observed on 13 and 15-16 Dec and quiet conditions were observed
    throughout the remainder of the week.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    20 December - 15 January 2022

    Solar activity is expected to very low to low throughout the outlook
    period, with a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
    radio blackout conditions.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Dec and 29 Dec-01 Jan. Normal
    to moderate flux levels are expected to prevail throughout the
    remainder of the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)
    geomagnetic storm levels early on 20 Dec due to what is thought to
    be the effects of a CIR preceding negative polarity CH HSS
    influence. Active conditions are expected on 21-22, and 28 Dec due
    to the anticipated influences of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet
    or quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout
    the remainder of the forecast period.

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