• ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 10 18:51:33 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP50
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 10, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but four days later it
    was gone, and on Thursday, December 9 we saw the second day with no
    sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average
    daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising.
    The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10, 80 on December
    11-14, 82 on December 15, 84 on December 16-17, 85 on December 18,
    87 on December 19-22, 86 on December 23-27, 84 on December 28, 82 on
    December 29 through January 2, 80 on January 3-5, 82 on January 6-8,
    80 on January 9-10, 82 on January 11, 85 on January 12-14 and 87 on
    January 15-18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10 and 8 on December 10-13, 8
    on December 13-14, 5 on December 14-15, then 10, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
    December 16-20, 5 on December 21-26, then 15, 18 and 12 on December
    27-29, 8 on December 30 through January 3, 5 on January 4-5, then
    10, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on January 6-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 15,
    12, 10 and 8 on January 13-16, and 5 on January 17-22.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, December 9, 2021.

    "(Created as a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity
    predictions, published since 1978.)

    "The only sunspot group on solar disk No. 2904, in which we observed
    three spots (=> R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to
    plage. Thus, R = 0 applies since December 8, so we register a
    minimum within the quasi-periodic twenty-seven-day fluctuation. At
    the same time, the solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field
    has calmed down and consequently result are the lowest values of
    f0F2. However, the decreasing length of sunshine in the Earth's
    northern hemisphere also contributes to it.

    "In the remaining weeks until the end of the year, we can expect a
    gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November,
    an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet
    and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly
    above average.

    "F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH
    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
    Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"

    This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest! Solar flux should
    be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid
    Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the
    Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13. See http://www.ARRL.org/10-meter for contest details.

    N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas, "The Geminids Meteor shower
    is predicted to peak December 13-14. Already meteor rates are
    picking up.

    "I was able to work NJ0W/R in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter
    using the MSK144 mode on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W made
    other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare
    grid for the FFMA (Fred Fish Memorial Award) on 6 Meters."

    The FFMA will be awarded to anyone working all North America grid
    squares on 6 meters. So far Fred Fish is the only ham who has done
    this.

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 2 through 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36,
    14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 85.3,
    88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of
    7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a
    mean of 5.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 16 11:14:01 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP50
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 16, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
    great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
    137.5 to 150.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
    from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

    Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
    combination for favorable HF propagation.

    New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
    sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
    December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

    N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

    "What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
    ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
    coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
    Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
    this year was 148, last year only 78."

    The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
    164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
    December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
    January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
    115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
    18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
    December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
    January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
    7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
    and 20 on January 21-24.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
    starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
    to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

    "It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
    western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
    erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

    "We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
    12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
    to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
    magnetic field calmed down.

    "On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
    the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
    there were eleven sunspot groups.

    "Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
    magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
    on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
    effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
    the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
    increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
    the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

    "Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
    worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
    20."

    The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

    https://bit.ly/3HCHytO

    David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

    https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O

    Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

    https://bit.ly/3FuPniB

    Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
    Carrington event?

    https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR

    Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

    https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3

    More and more news about flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc

    https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK

    https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k

    Another Solar Cycle 19?

    https://bit.ly/3FYgioi

    N0JK reports:

    "Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

    More 6 meter news from KM0T:

    "Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
    fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
    Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
    first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
    worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
    hop.

    "There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
    the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
    exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
    blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
    let us know as that would be an interesting path.

    "My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
    ice storm. Bottom antenna about 25 feet. (Stacked 6el over 6el,
    20' apart)

    "Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

    "I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
    Island here some months ago.

    The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did). I heard snow
    and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

    "That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
    the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
    you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
    Midwest with true F2.

    "I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning. It rained
    pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
    around, my ice was off the antennas.

    "Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
    +25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
    between the ZLs.

    "First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
    Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig. He gave me a +00.

    "Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north. At 0107
    UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

    He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
    probably FT8 or FT4.

    W2ZDP reported on December 14:

    "There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
    around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

    "I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
    didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
    time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
    both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
    attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
    100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
    informative new video:

    https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
    141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
    149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
    a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 15 13:34:05 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP50
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 15, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0132 UTC ON 15 DECEMBER
    2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    "Two predominately westward CMEs were observed on 14-Dec and
    component arrivals are expected on 17-Dec.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 17 DECEMBER 2023."

    Spaceweather.com issued this alert on Thursday:

    "MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The Sun just unleashed the strongest
    solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from
    unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio
    blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward
    Earth."

    Solar activity declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
    dropped from 121.1 to 110.3, and average daily solar flux from 146.5
    to 129.8.

    With such low geomagnetic activity, conditions were good for last
    weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, although some wished for more
    sunspots.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week. The first two on December
    8, another two on December 11 and 12, and two more on December 13.

    Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with planetary A index dropping
    from 14.1 to 5.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 4.6.

    Predicted solar flux shows some expected improvement, with values
    peaking at 160 on December 20-22, and 155 on January 23.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on December 15-16, then 145, 150 and 155
    on December 17-19, 160 on December 20-22, but dropping back to 140
    on December 23-24, 150 on December 25-26, then 155, 150 and 145 on
    December 27-29, then 140 on December 30 through January 2, 2024, and
    135 on January 3-5, then 130, 125, 120, 118, and 120 on January
    6-10, 122 on January 11-12, then 124, 125, and 130 on January 13-15,
    135 on January 16-18, 140 on January 19-20, and 150 on January
    21-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 22 on December 15-16, 12 on
    December 17-18, then 18, 8, 8, 20 and 10 on December 19-23, 5 on
    December 24-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
    2024, 5 on January 3-6, 12 on January 7-9, 8 and 5 on January 10-11,
    12 on January 12-13, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on January 14-19,
    and 5 for at least the following few days.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere December 15-21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Solar activity has been gradually decreasing over the last seven
    days, broadly in line with the forecast.

    "Most of the flares came from the active region AR3514, which was
    moving from the northeast to the northwest.

    "Eventually, most of the sunspots were in the northwest of the solar
    disk, and as they gradually set over the next few days, solar
    activity should continue to decrease.

    "While activity on the Sun's receding half does not appear to be
    great, there is definitely a larger active region beyond the Sun's
    northeastern limb. This observation is likely the basis for the
    latest forecast from the U.S. Air Force, which predicts a rise in
    solar flux initially to 160, and after a slight drop back above 150
    around Christmas.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions, which have suffered particularly
    in the Earth's northern hemisphere from the decline in solar
    activity, should improve.

    "But developments may be more complicated. Just as a CME originating
    from the solar flare of 11 December with a peak at 2243 UT arrived
    at Earth before midnight UTC on 13 December, triggered a geomagnetic disturbance in the first hours UTC on 14 December and significantly
    worsened propagation, we can expect something similar from the
    stronger flare of 14 December with a peak at 0744 UTC. However,
    subsequent geomagnetic disturbances should be no more intense than
    G1."

    Reader David Moore sent this article from "SpaceNews":

    https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF

    On Wednesday morning Spaceweather.com announced:

    "The best meteor shower of the year is expected to peak on December
    13-14 with no Moon to spoil the show. Rural observers could see
    hundreds of Geminid meteors and more than a few fireballs."

    From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:

    "The 10 meter contest in my view was pretty nice on average,
    although did notice this:

    "During 0000 UTC on Saturday got always South America for about 3
    hours before the band closed. Then before 1200 UTC got to work
    VR2XAN which was a surprise as my antenna was pointing to Europe (he
    said he was beaming the South Pole) and it's been 10 years since I
    worked Hong Kong for the first time.

    "But then, could not work a few Europeans, and the band likely
    closed to them by 1500 UTC, and the US was pretty strong.

    "Then it closed at 2230 UTC, so SA predominated again. It repeated
    for Sunday.

    "Also noted that there was a lot of fading as some stations
    disappeared for a few seconds to a minute. And the SFI dropped to
    130 which could have been a factor.

    "But for what I am happy is that I accumulated 600 points for the
    VOTA event, and I delivered 35."

    Did you know India has a solar observatory in space? Here is an
    article from "The Times Of India":

    https://bit.ly/3GGecsH

    From WBZ news, a story about a Massive Solar Flare:

    https://bit.ly/4anifba

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI wrote:

    "The solar flux wasn't optimal for the ARRL 10-meter contest last
    weekend, but it was good enough. There was a lot of activity on the
    voice part of the band.

    "Operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a small homebrew loop, I
    gathered 38 contest exchanges on Saturday and Sunday, around 3-1/2
    hours of operating in total.

    "On Saturday, South and Central America, and Caribbean stations were
    coming in as well as the usual Canadian stations for
    out-of-the-country exchanges. I managed to snap up one Brazilian
    station for DX.

    "On Sunday, I heard Australian stations coming in, but couldn't get
    them to hear me. There were also more Brazilian stations plus a few
    from Argentina.

    "I was operating around noontime. QSB was evident."

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, put out a new video this week:

    https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc

    A couple of interesting QRZ.com pages to check out: KS7ROH for his astrophotography and other projects, and W6BSD for links to his
    propagation pages.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13, 2023 were 121, 125, 125,
    120, 87, 80, and 114, with a mean of 110.3. 10.7 cm flux was 134.6,
    132.6, 127.9, 126.6, 125.9, 126.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 129.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 10, and 8, with a
    mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 8, and 7,
    with a mean of 4.6.
    NNNN
    /EX

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