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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 29 November - 05 D

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Dec 6 13:00:12 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0224 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    29 November - 05 December 2021

    Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Region 2898 (S24,
    L=236, class/area Dao/140 on 27 Nov) produced an M1 flare at 05/0719
    UTC, the largest of the period. The region had recently rotated
    around the W limb before producing the event. With the exception of
    Region 2904 (S27, L=80, class/area Bxo/30), which developed recently
    in the SW quadrant, all other regions were either in decay or
    quietly rotated off of the visible disk.

    Other Earth-directed activity included a ~40 degree filament
    eruption centered near S45W10, beginning around 05/1103 UTC in
    SDOAIA 304 imagery. A subsequent faint CME signature was noted in
    SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/1412 UTC.
    Preliminary analysis and modeling suggests a slow-moving
    Earth-directed component that'll arrive at Earth 09-10 Dec.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
    from moderate to high levels. High levels were reached on 01-05 Dec,
    with the highest recorded flux of 4,870 pfu at 03/1520 UTC. Normal
    to moderate levels were observed on 29-30 Nov.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels. G1 conditions were observed late on 30 Nov in response
    to the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar
    wind conditions surrounding the event consisted of a total magnetic
    field strength increase to a peak of 15 nT, the Bz component rotated
    as far south as -12 nT and solar wind speeds increased from ~350
    km/s to ~475 km/s. Active conditions were observed after as the HSS
    proper set in over 01 Dec, and on 29 Nov in response to waning weak
    transient influence. Periodic unsettled conditions were observed
    over 02-05 Dec.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    06 December - 01 January 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
    outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely
    on 06-08 Dec, 11-12 Dec, 20-23 Dec and 29 Dec-01 Jan. Normal to
    moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
    period. All increases in electron flux are due to the influence of
    multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
    geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 17 Dec and
    27-28 Dec; active conditions are likely on 13 Dec, 18 Dec and 29
    Dec; unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Dec, 10-11 Dec, 14 Dec,
    19-20 Dec and 30 Dec - 01 Jan. All elevated levels of geomagnetic
    activity are in anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent
    CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
    quiet levels.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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