• ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 3 15:04:30 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP49
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 3, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number
    increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up
    10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher.
    Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and
    average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

    I like looking for openings on the 10 meter band, and continue to be
    surprised by how often I hear nothing on 10 meters (when probing
    with FT8 and pskreporter) but find plentiful openings on 12 meters,
    indicating the MUF is somewhere between 10 and 12 meters. To help 10
    meter observers, I have a CW propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz,
    K7RA/B in Seattle. It runs about ten watts into a half wave dipole
    at a modest height.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, one on November 28,
    and two more on November 30.

    On December 1, Spaceweather.com announced a geomagnetic storm watch:
    "Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME
    might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled
    into space on November 29 by an erupting filament of magnetism in
    the Sun's southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models,
    the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss
    just as likely as a glancing blow."

    At 2340 UTC on December 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre
    issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The effects of a coronal
    hole wind stream and coronal mass ejection are expected to increase
    geomagnetic activity on 03 December. Conditions are likely to be
    initially quiet with activity increasing. Active to minor storm
    levels are expected."

    Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at
    94 on December 27-28. The forecast sees values of 86 on December 3,
    84 on December 4-5, 82 on December 6, 80 on December 7-10, 82 on
    December 11-12, 80 on December 13-14, 85 on December 15-21, 82 and
    80 on December 22-23, 78 on December 24-25, 92 on December 26, 94 on
    December 27-28, 88 on December 29, 2021 through January 1, 2022,
    then 85, 82 and 80 on January 2-4, 82 on January 5-8, and 80 on
    January 9-10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 14, 10 and 12 on December 3-6, 8
    on December 7-8, 5 on December 9-11, then 8, 12 and 10 on December
    12-14, 5 on December 15-16, then 8 and 10 on December 17-18, 5 on
    December 19-25, 8 on December 26, 5 on December 27-29, 10 on
    December 30-31, 8 on January 1, 5 on January 2-7, then 8, 12, and 10
    on January 8-10.

    AA6XE wrote:

    "We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Cycle 24/25 Minimum was
    recorded and the most notable attribute of Solar Cycle 25 is its
    slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the Sun where
    numerous Active Regions pop up with only a handful actually
    developing into numbered Sunspot Groups. The bulk of the new regions
    that form quickly decay away. As it stands right now Solar Cycle 25
    activity is running a little bit ahead of the same point in Solar
    Cycle 24. Does this point to a weak Solar Cycle much like we
    experienced with Solar Cycle 24?

    "It's still too early to say. The first couple of years in any Solar
    Cycle are never easy to take and Solar Cycle 25 is proving itself no
    exception. We await 'the breakout' when Solar Activity ramps up
    dramatically."

    He continued: "A dramatic run-up in Solar Flux over a period of a
    few days has little influence on increasing Ionospheric MUF. What
    does have an effect on the Ionospheric MUF is an increase in the
    Monthly Solar Flux Average and more significantly an increase of the
    90 Day mean Solar Flux Reading. The dramatic and unanticipated spike
    in sunspot activity we saw a year ago, November 2020, temporarily
    goosed the 90 Day Solar Flux Average which had been running in the
    low 70s at the time, boosting it into the Low 80s in the ensuing 60
    days.

    "It became quickly apparent the November 2020 event was an outlier
    and the 90 Day Solar Flux subsequently slipped back to the Mid 70s
    by mid-April 2021. Since that time the 90 Day Solar Flux Average has
    been rising steadily albeit slowly. As long as those figures
    continue to steadily chug up hill MUF levels will continue to rise.
    The 90 Day Solar Flux Average as it stands presently is in the Upper
    80s. The 90 Day Solar Flux Mean will be in the low 90s by the end of
    December if Solar Activity resumes the pace of growth we saw early
    in the fall. The Solar Breakout predicted by folks at NCAR (National
    Center for Atmospheric Research) has not materialized in time to
    provide any sort of relief to the Winter Season Doldrums we normally experience.

    "On the bright side this winter season is shaping up to be one of
    the best we will see on 160 Meter DX in the last several years.
    Solar Activity has picked up just enough to increase Ionization at
    those frequencies with little or no increase in D-Layer Absorption
    while the Planetary K Index has remained low."

    On November 29, N0JK reported from Kansas:

    "There was 6M sporadic-E on Thanksgiving.

    "From Kansas I worked WB5TUF (EL29) and NE5U (rare grid EL19) around
    0240 UTC November 25 on 50. 313 MHz FT8.

    "N0LL (EM09) worked NR4J (EM60) at 1625 UTC on 6 Meter FT8 November
    25."

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly commentary on phenomena in the Sun, in the magnetosphere and
    in the ionosphere of the Earth.

    "One week ago, I compiled my last weekly forecast of the Earth's
    magnetic field activity. Primarily, my goal was to compile
    predictions of changes in the ionospheric propagation of decameter
    waves. Their first users were my friends - radio amateurs. But 45
    years ago no one provided available predictions. That's why I
    gradually learned to compile them myself. Today, actually applicable predictions are available from several sources on a weekly and daily
    basis, especially in the USA, Belgium, Australia, Russia and, to my
    delight, also in the Czech Republic.

    "In the meantime, I had long since reached retirement age and
    planned to finally quit. But I was asked to try to continue, using
    my experience. Therefore, from now I will try to write comments on
    current and upcoming development. If this activity will be found as
    useful and/or interesting, I will continue. And like 45 years ago,
    it's an experiment. So here is my first attempt:

    "Solar activity remains at current levels, and due to the location
    of solar coronal holes near the central meridian, the influx of
    faster solar winds can be expected to continue.

    "The irregular daily course of changes in the ionosphere, to which
    the relatively low or still declining solar activity will
    contribute, should continue in the next five days or so. In
    addition, after the CME on November 29, it is still possible for the
    plasma cloud to arrive late on December 2 or during December 3 - but
    the probability is already low.

    "After the expected slight increase in solar activity, I expect a
    more regular course of ionosphere parameters in the second half of
    December.

    "F. K. Janda, OK1HH
    Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
    Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"

    NASA's new feature starts today:

    https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2021/12/02/welcome-to-nasas-solartour/

    Sunspot rotation rate history:

    https://bit.ly/3rsLfu1

    Sunspot variations during their decay:

    https://bit.ly/3rAJ7QS

    Dynamics of bright features:

    https://bit.ly/31pJraj

    A report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for December 1:

    https://youtu.be/cISNu72utnI

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 25 through December 1, 2021 were 20,
    52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a
    mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14,
    with a mean of 6.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 9 19:08:00 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP49
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 9, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity bounced back in our reporting week, December 1 to 7.
    With solar flux and sunspot numbers dramatically higher and
    geomagnetic activity lower, what could be better? Well, even more
    sunspots, I guess. But this sunspot cycle is already progressing
    better than the prediction consensus, so I am grateful.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 85, while average
    daily solar flux rose from 108.3 to 137.5.

    How do these numbers compare with a year ago? The week of December
    2 to 8, 2021 had an average daily sunspot number of 24.6 and solar
    flux at 82.6.

    Average daily planetary A index dropped from 18.6 to 14.4, while
    middle latitude numbers declined from 14 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next few days is 140 on December 9 to
    11, then 130, and 125 on December 12 and 13, 120 on December 14 and
    15, 110 on December 16 to 19, 115 on December 20 to 22, 120 on
    December 23 to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, then
    140 on January 1 to 6, 2023, then 135 on January 8, 125 on January 9
    and 10, 115 on January 11, and 110 on January 12 to 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 9 and 10, 5 on
    December 11 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
    then 20, 15 and 12 on December 22 to 24, 20 on December 25 to 28,
    then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on December 29 through January 1, 2023, then
    5, 12, 15 and 8 on January 2 to 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12, then 10
    on January 13 and 14, and 5 on January 15 to 17.

    Don't forget the ARRL 10 meter contest this weekend.

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

    In North America, that starts on Friday evening, and the latest
    prediction shows a promising high solar flux with low geomagnetic
    numbers, ideal conditions.

    F.K Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "This week, no dramatic events - no large proton eruptions, and the fluctuations of the solar wind did not deviate from the limits we
    have become accustomed to this year. The most prominent feature was
    the canyon-shaped coronal hole, which paraded from the eastern to
    the western half of the solar disk.

    But its surroundings were changing, especially at its northern end.
    From there, the HSS (high-speed solar wind) probably began to flow
    from there on December 7th, reaching Earth and finally triggering a
    geomagnetic disturbance on the afternoon of the same day.

    Before the aforementioned coronal hole sinks behind the western edge
    of the solar disk in a few days, we can still expect an increase in
    the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregular changes in
    the ionosphere.

    Don't expect more accurate predictions.

    A decrease in solar activity will follow, and the decrease in solar
    radiation will add up in the ionosphere to the shortening of the
    day. Only with a delay of several days will propagation improve in
    the longer part of the short wave band."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW wrote:

    "On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, between 1429 and 1432 UTC I
    received the United Kingdom, G9PUC in grid square JO00au calling CQ
    using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via
    F2 propagation. Distance was 3541 miles, with an azimuth of 050
    degrees.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.66-40.7 MHz
    with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680. Licensed users
    are the Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration- satellite service.

    G9PUV resides in Iford, England and has an Innovation Trial
    license from Ofcom to conduct research on 8 meters for 12 months,
    starting April 1, 2022.

    Paul uses an Icom IC-706 rig into a W4KMA Log Periodic antenna
    (custom 18-100 MHz) at 49 feet AGL at 30 watts.

    The noon 10.7cm Radio Flux was 148 sfu. The Estimated Planetary K
    index (3 hour data) 12-15 UTC ramped up to a Kp index of 5.

    I was using the JTDX v2.2.149-32A suite. The Band Activity window
    displayed the following eight decodes.

    142915 -14 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    142945 -5 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143015 -4 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143045 -10 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143115 -6 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143145 -9 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143215 -16 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143245 -11 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00

    Less than one hour later, I decoded Ireland, EI2IP in grid square
    IO52 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 via F2. He decoded
    twenty-two times.

    Distance was 3151 miles, with an azimuth of 050 degrees.

    EI2IP resides in Limerick, Ireland. (EI) radio amateurs are
    authorized to transmit on this band without a Test Trial license
    from ComReg.

    The Band Activity window displayed the following decodes.

    152300 -14 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152600 -18 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152630 -13 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152700 -19 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152730 -12 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152800 -22 0.4 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152830 -14 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152900 -11 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152930 -15 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153000 -21 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153530 -15 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153600 -18 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153630 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153700 -19 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153800 -14 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153830 -13 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153900 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153930 -18 0.6 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154000 -16 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154030 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154100 -16 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    155700 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52"

    Thanks to Howard, N7SO for this link:

    https://www.youtube.com/SVAstronomyLectures

    Solar physics:

    https://bit.ly/3Ybi38y

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's tutorial on the ionosphere, 2 years ago:

    https://youtu.be/zUXBeYHTsUk

    WX6SWW Current video:

    https://youtu.be/eAbskTOybvE

    Newsweek sunspot report:

    https://bit.ly/3BlnPuS

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7, 2022 were 49, 66, 68, 93,
    89, 123, and 107, with a mean of 85. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 124,
    133.8, 143,7, 149.8, 144.2, and 148, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 28, 16, 10, 17, 8, 4, and 18, with a mean
    of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 10, 7, 2, and 9,
    with a mean of 9.1.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Dec 8 12:21:22 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP49
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 8, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    Six new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week (November 30
    to December 6).

    Last week, using the previous week's Propagation Forecast bulletin
    as a template, the averages were not updated, although all the
    correct data was there.

    So instead of average daily sunspot number of 83.3, it was actually
    165.9, which this week dropped to 121.1.

    Instead of average daily solar flux of 146, it was actually 181.5,
    which this week declined to 146.5.

    Instead of average daily planetary A index of 10.1, it was actually
    11.6, which this week rose to 17.1. Instead of average middle
    latitude A index of 7.3 it was 9, rising this week to 11.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 135, 130, 130 and 135 on December 8-11, 137
    on December 12-15, 140 and 150 on December 16-17, 160 on December
    18-26, then 155, 150, 145, and 140 on December 27-30, then 136, 134
    and 130 on December 31 through January 2, 2024, and 132 on January
    3-5, then 130 and 135 on January 6-7, then 140 on January 8-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December
    10-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on December
    18-23, 5 on December 24-30, then 25, 10 and 8 on December 31 through
    January 2, 2024, and 5 on January 3-6, then 10 and 8 on January 7-8,
    and 5 on January 9-13.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere, December 8-14, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
    activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
    days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
    of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave conditions
    were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

    "In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
    calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
    November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
    expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
    days followed on November 19-20.

    "Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's
    magnetosphere, propagation did not improve until November 20.

    "Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
    geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
    development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
    conditions (at intervals of 1000-1300 UTC and 1600-1900 UTC).

    "The following evolution could be expected - there was a
    deterioration of conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was
    short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity,
    an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

    "Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
    hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
    solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
    wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
    worse days."

    From "Universe Today" a story about a big, big solar storm in 1872:

    https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL

    A story about a big coronal hole:

    https://bit.ly/487quGd

    From "Science Alert" another article about a big hole on the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/41adYDC

    From "EarthSky" a new region on the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG

    Don't forget, the ARRL 10 meter contest is THIS weekend!

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2023 were 138,
    140, 92, 107, 113, 133, and 125, with a mean of 121.1. 10.7 cm flux
    was 166.5, 162, 148.2, 139.2, 137.8, 141.6, and 129.9, with a mean
    of 146.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 56, 14, 11, 9, 15,
    and 10, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 30, 11,
    10, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

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