XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP33
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 13, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity continues to be very weak, and the latest 45-day
outlook seems to indicate more of the same.

Sunspots only appeared on three out of the seven days in our
reporting week (August 5 to 11) and they were not consecutive.

Average daily sunspot numbers actually rose a little, from 6 to 9.9.
Average daily solar flux softened from 74.8 to 73.7. Average daily
planetary A index went from 8 to 6.3, while middle latitude averages
were 7, down from 8.7 last week.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks shows a predicted
maximum of only 75 on just one day, September 11. The solar flux
forecast from USAF and NOAA shows 73 on August 13 and 14, 72 on
August 15 to 19, 73 on August 20, 74 on August 21 through September
1, then 73, 72, 72, 74 and 74 on September 2 to 6, 73 on September 7
to 10, 75 on September 11, 72 on September 12 to 15, 73 on September
16, and 74 on September 17 and beyond.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 13 to 15, 5 on August 16
to 22, 8 on August 15 and 16, 5 on August 17 to 22, then 8, 12 and 8
on August 23 to 25, 5 on August 26 through September 1, then 8 and
12, on September 2 and 3, then 8 on September 4 to 6, 5 on September
7 to 11, then 12, 10, and 10 September 12 to 14, and 5 on September
15 to 18.

Strangely, the planetary A index for September 5 is listed as 58,
which I was certain was an error. This outlier value was repeated
in Thursday's forecast. Wednesday's prediction was done by Stover
and Houseal and Thursday's was from Trost and Houseal. I have not
checked earlier forecasts to see when this value first showed up.
New forecasts appear daily at
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/

OK1HH is gone for another week, so we present geo-forecasts from two
of his colleagues:

"Solar activity forecast for the period August 13-August 19, 2021

Activity level: mostly very low
X-ray background flux (1.0 to 8.0 A): in the range A3.5 to A7.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 70 to 75
Events: class C (0 to 2/period), class M (0/period), class X
(0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0 to 55

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 13 to 19,
2021

Quiet: August 13 to 16, 19
Unsettled: August 16 to 18
Active: possible August 16 and 17
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Next week, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions generally. Till
the next Sunday, August 15, we expect the quiet to unsettled level
closer to the lower level.

Since Monday, August 16, more unsettled conditions are possible.
Between Monday, August 16, and Wednesday, August 18, more unsettled
conditions are probable. Within this interval, an isolated active
event is also possible."

Interesting item from Southgate Amateur Radio News:

https://bit.ly/3sd5LNr

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 5 through August 11, 2021 were 36, 0, 0,
11, 0, 0, and 22, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 74.3, 74.4,
73.7, 73.5, 73, 73.3, and 73.8, with a mean of 73.7. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 7, 11, 5, 5, 7, and 6, with a mean of
6.3. Middle latitude A index was 3, 9, 9, 6, 6, 9, and 7, with a
mean of 7.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP33
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 19, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the
combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several
coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days. There is a
chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora
Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark
areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing. They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long
exposure time. This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora
photos are done this way, and viewing with the naked eye you see a
much less dramatic image.

Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued.
Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week,
to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17. Average
daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this
week.

But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak
of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC
local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August
21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on
August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through
September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108
on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to
10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on
September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on
September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on
August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6,
and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on
September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5
on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September
24 to 26.

OK1HH writes:

"A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase
very slowly. Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active
sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased. On
August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic
disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs. The
solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16. In the meantime,
eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength
eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field,
continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that
caused minor shortwave radio blackouts. The strongest eruption to
date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a
shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a
possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and
engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two). The forecast for
a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to
19.

Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M
for the third consecutive day. The most recent, an M2 explosion on
17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.
But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will
pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone. So the
disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth
directly.

The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave
propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF. The best
day was August 17. A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF
occurred on 18 August. In the following days, the solar flare
activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to
decrease. A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in
an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo

Even Newsweek is reporting it:

https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw

https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg

And of course, British tabloids:

https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc

And NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3A537Ob

Violent solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw

Strong storm:

https://bit.ly/3c998kT

Aurora in Montana:

https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK

Radiation storm!

https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR

John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta,
Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho.

My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction
between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.' Where do
'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here
two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle
minimum than I am now. The station is the same for the entire
period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The
good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is
more active.' As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines
high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at
33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees
would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at
64.8 degrees would be high.

I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me
that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity,
there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the
disturbance closer to the poles.

You might notice better propagation from Atlanta. I've noticed
using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of
callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE
states and nothing here in the northwest. Don't know why that is,
but gradually the propagation will drift out this way. So Atlanta
being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get
it here. It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern
states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest,
what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116,
104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6. 10.7 cm flux was 114.8,
119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with
a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and
22, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP33
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 18, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

Eleven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, August 10-16,
but average solar indicators declined.

There were two new sunspots groups on August 11, three more on
August 13, another on August 14, two more on August 15, and three
more on August 16. On August 17 another new one appeared.

But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 108.9 to 95.7, while
average daily solar flux dropped from 166.4 to 154.2.

Predicted solar flux is 150, 155, and 157 on August 18-20, 160 on
August 21-22, then 162, 165, 162, 160 and 164 on August 23-27, 168
on August 28-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, then 158,
155, 152 and 150 on September 4-7, and 148, 142, 140 and 130 on
September 8-11, 135 on September 12-14, and 145, 150, 155, 158 and
160 on September 15-19, 162 on September 20-21, then 160 and 164 on
September 22-23, and 168 on September 24-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 18-19, 5 on August
20-25, 12 on August 26, 5 on August 27 through September 5, then 10,
8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, then 12, 15, 12 and 8
on September 12-15, 5 on September 16-21, 12 on September 22, and 5
on September 23 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere August 18-24, 2023 from OK1HH:

"Solar activity has declined, both spot and flare. We have usually
observed C-class solar flares, although the configurations of some
active regions did not preclude the formation of M-class flares. We
expect an upsurge in solar activity in the last five days of August,
after which more sunspot groups should appear at the eastern limb of
the solar disk.

The Earth's ionosphere was quite sensitive to the increased influx
of protons in the accelerated solar wind on 11 August and again on
16-17 August. Propagation improved on August 14-15 and worsened on
August 16. I do not expect any other surprises before the end of the
month."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often reports HF operations from his kayak,
wrote:

"I recently returned from a vacation at Lake Tahoe where I was
running 10 watts into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical. The rental
place was surrounded by extra-tall pine trees, but the base of the
antenna was 30 feet above the ground on a high porch.

My discovery (on the evenings of August 7 and 9, around 8 p.m.
Pacific Coast time) was that CW DX was coming in on the 30-meter
band. On the 7th, I contacted OV1CDX in Denmark on that band (and
heard him again on subsequent nights). On the 9th, I contacted 6B2A
in Egypt, who was coming in a solid S4.

I had a couple other CW DX twilight/early-night contacts on 15 and
20 meters, but the 30 meter contacts surprised me."

N4KZ reports from Frankfort, Kentucky:

"Last week, I began copying SSB signals from Europe on the 10 and
12-meter bands. They were weak but readable. It was the first time
I've heard SSB signals on those bands from that part of the world in
many months. Then, on August 15th beginning at 1248 UTC, I worked
stations across Europe and the Middle East on 12-meter SSB with
strong signals.

About 20 minutes earlier, I tuned across the 10-meter phone band and
only copied one signal. It was S79VU, Ravi, in the Seychelles. He
was about S5 and working Europeans who I did not copy. But he came
back to me on my first call. We've worked before but this was our
first 10-meter QSO. It's only mid-August, but perhaps autumn
propagation is beginning to emerge and with the continuing high
sunspot count, I hope this marks the start of better HF conditions
this fall and winter. I run about 800 watts into a multi-band Yagi
with 3 active elements on each band. The antenna is up 55 feet. I
live on a hilltop with a steep slope toward the north which has
proven over the years to be an advantage.

On July 1, I once again became active on the low-end of 2 meters
doing weak-signal work. I was quite active on SSB and CW on the low
end throughout the 1980s and '90s and to a lesser extent until about
2010. I worked 40 states from Kentucky but eventually decided to
concentrate on HF and 6 meters. But I missed 2 meters and now I have
returned.

There's less SSB and CW than there used to be but quite a few are
operating FT8 on 144.174 MHz which does a nice job with weak
signals. So far I have worked 15 states and Ontario. Morning
propagation a couple hours after sunrise allows for 300-400 mile
QSOs routinely on FT8. And I've copied stations from Colorado, Long
Island, NY and Connecticut on meteor scatter while using MSK144.
After a 12-year hiatus from 2-meter weak-signal work, it's good to
be back."

AA6XE in Fremont, California wrote:

"Interesting conditions on 10 meters although not that unusual. In
the last couple of days propagation into the Pacific Northwest has materialized. A bunch of Beacons have surfaced. Beacons from
Portland to well north of Vancouver BC are coming in every
afternoon. I heard Tad Cook's (K7RA) 10 meter beacon yesterday (Aug
13). Beacons out of Mexico have been coming in on 10 Meters for over
a month. Some of those beacons are located as far South as Veracruz.
Beacons from Australia have been coming through on most days over
the last month. NCDXF beacons VK6RBP in Western Australia and 4S7B
in Sri Lanka were heard on 15 Meters for a few days.

While propagation on 10 to the Pacific Northwest may not seem like
much I recognize it as a marker that the days of summer propagation
are numbered. Typically this doesn't happen until the last 2 weeks
in August so it appears to be early this year. So like the Crocuses
popping up in late February it doesn't do much for one aside from
reminding us that better times are on the way.

As to what we can expect this Fall it looks to be much improved over
last year and at the peak of Cycle 24. The 90 day mean SFI currently
stands at 166. Last year at this time 90 day mean stood at 114. The
90 day Mean SFI for the peak of Solar Cycle 24 was 155. The 90 Day
Mean made a significant run-up during late Spring early Summer
increasing 21 points. For the last 5 weeks the Daily SFI has been
sliding. It hasn't dropped enough to impact the 90 and 81 Day Mean
Values just yet, but if the decline continues those numbers will
sag.

The rising phase of SC25 has its own characteristics. The solar flux
rises rapidly for 4 to 8 weeks followed by an extended period of
decline for 2 to 3 months. This makes it difficult to see the
overall trend. It even faked out a number of heliophysicists who
made the call that SC 25 had peaked in February 2023. The latest
predictions call for SC 25 to peak at year-end 2023/2024. A few are
calling for SC 25 to peak at mid-year 2024. It would be a pleasant
surprise if the next surge kicks off a few weeks early, say by the
first days of September. That would make a big impact of the
conditions we can expect on 6 Meters this Fall."

The latest from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 10 through 16, 2023 were 83, 105, 61, 89,
85, 107, and 140, with a mean of 95.7 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
152.8, 148.3, 150.4, 154, 158.1, and 160.1, with a mean of 154.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 8, 5, 5, 4, and 8, with a
mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 10, 7, 6, 7, and 10,
with a mean of 7.7.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)