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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 08 - 14 November 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 15 13:00:11 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2021 Nov 15 0156 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    08 - 14 November 2021

    Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) at 09/1702 UTC due
    to a long duration M2 flare from Region 2891 (N17, L=212, class/area
    Dki/350 on 29 Oct). Region 2891 had rotated around the west limb at
    the time of the event, as a result this CME was not Earth-directed.
    Solar activity was low on 08 and 13 Nov. Solar activity was very low
    on 10-12, 14 Nov. There were no notable CMEs observed during the
    reporting period.

    The greater then 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
    increased from background levels to 2.6 pfu at 09/2125 UTC. This
    increase was in response to the aforementioned M2 flare from Region
    2891. Proton flux values remained below S1 (Minor) levels throughout
    the reporting period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach
    high levels on 08-09 and 13-14 Nov. A peak flux of 3,319 pfu was
    observed at 08/1850 UTC by the GOES-16 spacecraft. Moderate levels
    were observed throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 08-10 Nov due
    to residual solar wind effects from the CME that arrived on 04 Nov.
    Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the
    reporting period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    15 November - 11 December 2021

    Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
    flaring throughout the outlook period. There is a chance for
    moderate levels on 20 Nov - 03 Dec with the return of M-flare
    producing Region 2891 to the visible disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 15-16 Nov with moderate levels
    anticipated throughout the reminder of the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
    16-17, 28-29 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to
    unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the
    outlook period.

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