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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 12, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity and solar flux dropped this reporting week
(November 4-10), with the average daily sunspot number retreating
from 67.6 to 36.4, and solar flux from 102 to 89.1. Geomagnetic
indicators rose, average daily planetary A index from 12 to 18, and
middle latitude values from 9 to 11.7.

When the planetary and middle latitude A index were 69 and 42 on
November 4, Alaska's College A index was a whopping 131. College K
index peaked at 9 on that day. K index is logarithmic, so each point
in the scale represents a big difference in activity. The A index is
linear, and based upon the K index.

The K index is reported every three hours, and the College K index
on November 4 was 5, 5, 8, 9, 8, 5, 3 and 2. This was all caused by
what Spaceweather.com called a "Cannibal CME," because it was a CME
overtaken by a second larger and faster moving coronal mass
ejection.

At 1701 UTC on November 9 a CME eruption just over the Sun's western
horizon emitted enough energy to cause a shortwave radio blackout,
which is pictured here:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/09nov21/blackoutmap.jpg

Predicted solar flux is 86 on November 12, 85 on November 13-16, 84
on November 17, 83 on November 18-19, 90 on November 20, 95 on
November 21-27, 90 on November 28-29, 85 on November 30 through
December 2, 82 on December 3-4, 85 on December 5, 82 again on
December 6-9, 80 on December 10-11, 85 on December 12, and 87 on
December 13-15. Flux values may peak at around 95 on December 18-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 12-15, 8 on November
16-17, 5 on November 18-27, then 10, 10 and 8 on November 28-30, 5
on December 1-4, 8 on December 5, 5 on December 6-9, then 7, 7, 10
and 8 on December 10-13, and 5 on December 14-24.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH presents his geomagnetic activity forecast for
the period November 12 to December 1, 2021.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: 18-19, 23, 25,
quiet to unsettled on: November 12-13, 17, 20, 22, 24,
quiet to active on: November 21, 26-27,
unsettled to active on: November 14, 16, 28,
Active to disturbed: November (15, 29,) 30, December 1,

"Solar wind will intensify on November 16-17, (29-30), December
(1-2,) 3-4.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Don't know why I had not noticed this before:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/10year/

Unfortunately, only one of the two spacecraft remains, but it is
still a very useful tool:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

N0JK wrote from Kansas:

"Good conditions on 17 meters Sunday afternoon November 7. I found
the HD8R Galapagos Island DXpedition on 18.147 MHz SSB loud with few
callers. Was able to work them easily with 5 watts and mobile whip
at 2022 UTC. Sometimes a DXpedition is easier to work on the WARC
bands."

Early on November 12, Spaceweather.com reported all is quiet for
now.

"Space weather near Earth is calm, but the Sun is not quiet. This
week, SOHO coronagraphs have observed multiple CMEs billowing over
the western edge of the Sun. The source is a farside sunspot group,
probably the same one that produced a strong M2-class solar flare on
November 9th. Earth is not in the line of fire, for now."

Another great video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space
Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/QCXYJvSYjsc

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 4 through 10, 2021 were 28, 40, 41, 28,
41, 40, and 37, with a mean of 36.4. 10.7 cm flux was 93.8, 92.8,
82.1, 87.5, 88.3, 92, and 87.5, with a mean of 89.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 69, 13, 18, 6, 5, 7, and 8, with a mean of
18. Middle latitude A index was 42, 9, 13, 4, 3, 6, and 5, with a
mean of 11.7.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 18, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
Flux rose, while spots fell.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
cm radiation from those spots increased.

A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
emerged the next day on November 17.

How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
July 2025, about 32 months from now.

So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
Letter.

Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14,
then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December
20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and
5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
Friday's bulletin.

Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

"10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
Angeles. But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
make 150.

"Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

"Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
last solar cycle.

"I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
in Los Angeles.

"About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
later.

"HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
worked and heard was just incredible. Mostly peaking around
1956-1957!"

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

"Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see
https://bit.ly/3Askfyi ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

"The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
shortwave propagation conditions.

"Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
phase of the disturbance."

ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM

Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR

Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3V6jinh

https://bit.ly/3V0isIY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
with a mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 17, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2306 UTC 16
NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Two recent CMEs associated with small solar filament eruptions are
expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 19-Nov to 20-Nov.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2023."

Solar activity was lower this week, November 9-15, with average
daily sunspot numbers dropping from 89.7 to 80.1, and average daily
solar flux from 151.7 to 133.8.

If these numbers seem a little low lately, we should check the
bulletin from the same week last year.

In the November 18, 2022 bulletin average daily sunspot number
changed from 79.8 to 72.3, so a year later we are definitely still
trending higher.

Geomagnetic indicators were also lower, planetary A index changing
from 22.3 to 10.4, and middle latitude A index from 14.6 to 8.6.

A single new sunspot group appeared on November 10, another on
November 12, one more on November 13 and another on November 14.

Predicted solar flux is 118 and 120 on November 17-18, 122 on
November 19-22, then 126, 135 and 135 on November 23-25, then 140,
148, and 152 November 26-28, 155 on November 29 through December 1,
then 152, 150, 148 and 145 on December 2-5, then 140 on December
6-8, then 145, 135, 130 and 125 on December 9-12, 120 on December
13-15, then 125, 128, 130 and 132 on December 16-19, 135 on December
20-22, 140 and 148 on December 23-24, and 152 on December 25-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 15, 26 and 10 on November
17-21, then 5, 10, 18, 20 and 12 on November 22-26, 8 on November
27-28, 5 on November 29 through December 3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10
on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December 10-13, then 5 on
December 14-18, then 15, 12, 18, 20, and 12 no December 19-23, and 8
on December 24-25.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere November 17-23, 2023 from OK1HH:

"During the first half of November, solar activity continuously
decreased, which was not what we would have liked for shortwave
propagation.

"Even worse, there were relatively few geomagnetically quiet days -
only November 2, 3, 11 and 14.

"There were more days with higher geomagnetic activity: 4-8, 13 and
15 November. In addition, high levels of free electrons were present
in the ionosphere during relatively long periods (up to 4 November
and 7-12 November), which contributed to an increase in the
attenuation of passing electromagnetic waves.

"Shortwave propagation conditions in the second half of the month
should definitely be better as solar activity is expected to
increase. In addition, with the exception of the last days of
November (when we expect a disturbance), we expect the geomagnetic
field to be mostly quiet to only moderately active.

"If we try to account for the 27-day recurrence, geomagnetically
active days with fluctuations in propagation should occur after
November 21 again, but this is really only a guess given the current
nature of the trend."

Check this site for an update on current conditions on various
bands.

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/

From Dick Bingham, W7WKR, an article about Heliophysics and amateur

radio:

https://bit.ly/46jYf5O

An article from NOAA about Sunspots/Solar Cycle:

https://bit.ly/47iUpv2

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15, 2023 were 93, 93, 85, 78,
85, 86, and 41, with a mean of 80.1. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7, 143.9,
141.5, 137.2, 132.7, 123.8, and 118.9, with a mean of 133.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 12, 16, 6, and 12,
with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 10, 15, 5,
and 11, with a mean of 8.6.
NNNN
/EX

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