• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 November 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 8 13:00:20 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2021 Nov 08 0520 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    01 - 07 November 2021

    Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low
    levels occured on 07 Nov. Low levels were observed on 03-06 Nov.
    Moderate levels were reached at 01/0145 UTC due to an M1/1f flare
    from Region 2887 (S25, L=278, class/area Dki/440 on 24 Oct).
    Associated with this flare were Type-II (626 km/s) and Type-IV radio
    emmisions. A CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 01/0200
    UTC. Region 2887 also produced a CME, off the SW limb, at 01/1824
    UTC from a long duration C1 flare at 01/1801 UTC. This was followed
    by what appeared to be a double CME event off the W and SW limb at
    01/2124 UTC associated with a C4/Sf flare at 01/2133 UTC. Moderate
    levels were again reached at 02/0301 UTC due to a long duration
    M1/1f flare from Region 2891 (N17, L=212, class/area Dki/350 on 29
    Oct). Associated with this flare were a 10 cm radio burst (110 pfu)
    and a halo CME, first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, at 02/0248
    UTC. WSA ENLIL modeling of these multiple CME events from 01-02 Nov
    showed an Earth-directed component with an estimated arrival on 04

    The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
    elevated above background levels near 2-3 pfu on 01-03 Nov due to
    persistent effects from the X1/2n flare on 28 Oct. It nearly reached
    S1 (Minor) levels late on 03 Nov with the arrival of the 01 Nov
    CME(s). Proton flux returned to background levels on 04 Nov and
    remained there throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 05-07 Nov in response to the 01 Nov CME(s). Moderate
    levels were observed on 01-04 Nov.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 01-02 Nov due to
    influence from a positive-polarity, northern crown extention CH HSS.
    Total field increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 01/1953 UTC followed
    by an increase in solar wind speed from approximately 335 km/s to
    near 630 km/s. The Bz component was between +15/-12 nT and the phi
    angle was mostly oriented in a positive sector. The geomagnetic
    field returned to quiet levels on 03 Nov as HSS conditions slowly
    waned. Solar wind speeds were steady near 520 km/s and Bt was less
    than 5nT. A sudden impulse was observed at 03/1957 UTC with a
    deviation of 21nT measured at the FRD magnetometer in response to
    the shock arrival of the 01-02 Nov CME(s). Geomagnetic field levels
    escalated to G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm conditions on 03-04 Nov in
    response. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 520 km/s to
    near 770 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum of 23 nT at
    03/0648 UTC while a prolonged period of southward Bz of -12 to -18
    nT was observed between 04/0430-0830 UTC. Active conditions were
    observed on 05-07 Nov as CME effects waned.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    08 November - 04 December 2021

    Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
    flaring on 08-15 Nov and 01-04 Dec. Solar activity is expected to be
    at low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity on 16-30 Nov
    due to the return of Region 2887.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reache high levels on 08-09 Nov due to persistent CME
    effects. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated 10 Nov - 04 Dec.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 15,
    28-29 Nov in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to
    unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook

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