XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Nov 08 0520 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 November 2021

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low
levels occured on 07 Nov. Low levels were observed on 03-06 Nov.
Moderate levels were reached at 01/0145 UTC due to an M1/1f flare
from Region 2887 (S25, L=278, class/area Dki/440 on 24 Oct).
Associated with this flare were Type-II (626 km/s) and Type-IV radio
emmisions. A CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 01/0200
UTC. Region 2887 also produced a CME, off the SW limb, at 01/1824
UTC from a long duration C1 flare at 01/1801 UTC. This was followed
by what appeared to be a double CME event off the W and SW limb at
01/2124 UTC associated with a C4/Sf flare at 01/2133 UTC. Moderate
levels were again reached at 02/0301 UTC due to a long duration
M1/1f flare from Region 2891 (N17, L=212, class/area Dki/350 on 29
Oct). Associated with this flare were a 10 cm radio burst (110 pfu)
and a halo CME, first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, at 02/0248
UTC. WSA ENLIL modeling of these multiple CME events from 01-02 Nov
showed an Earth-directed component with an estimated arrival on 04
Nov.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
elevated above background levels near 2-3 pfu on 01-03 Nov due to
persistent effects from the X1/2n flare on 28 Oct. It nearly reached
S1 (Minor) levels late on 03 Nov with the arrival of the 01 Nov
CME(s). Proton flux returned to background levels on 04 Nov and
remained there throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 05-07 Nov in response to the 01 Nov CME(s). Moderate
levels were observed on 01-04 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 01-02 Nov due to
influence from a positive-polarity, northern crown extention CH HSS.
Total field increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 01/1953 UTC followed
by an increase in solar wind speed from approximately 335 km/s to
near 630 km/s. The Bz component was between +15/-12 nT and the phi
angle was mostly oriented in a positive sector. The geomagnetic
field returned to quiet levels on 03 Nov as HSS conditions slowly
waned. Solar wind speeds were steady near 520 km/s and Bt was less
than 5nT. A sudden impulse was observed at 03/1957 UTC with a
deviation of 21nT measured at the FRD magnetometer in response to
the shock arrival of the 01-02 Nov CME(s). Geomagnetic field levels
escalated to G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm conditions on 03-04 Nov in
response. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 520 km/s to
near 770 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum of 23 nT at
03/0648 UTC while a prolonged period of southward Bz of -12 to -18
nT was observed between 04/0430-0830 UTC. Active conditions were
observed on 05-07 Nov as CME effects waned.











Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 November - 04 December 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flaring on 08-15 Nov and 01-04 Dec. Solar activity is expected to be
at low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity on 16-30 Nov
due to the return of Region 2887.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reache high levels on 08-09 Nov due to persistent CME
effects. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated 10 Nov - 04 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 15,
28-29 Nov in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.

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