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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 29, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
number increasing by nearly five-fold from 11.3 to 54.9. Average
daily solar flux rose from 78.6 to 95.7. Currently our Sun is
peppered with spots:

https://helio-vo.eu/solar_activity/current/

A new sunspot group appeared on October 22, another on October 24,
two more on October 25, and another on October 26.

The sunspot number peaked on Thursday, October 28 at 96, and daily
solar flux peaked on the same day at 111.7.

Geomagnetic indicators were nice and quiet, but don't expect that
to last. Average daily planetary A index went from 8.4 to 4.4 and
average daily middle latitude A index declined from 5.4 to 3.6.

Predicted solar flux looks quite promising, at 113 on October 29,
114 on October 30 through November 1, 110 and 105 on November 2-3,
then 100 on November 4-5, 86 on November 6-7, 85 on November 8-9, 83
on November 10, 82 on November 11-15, 85 on November 16-20, 94 on
November 21, 95 on November 22-23, 96 on November 24, 95 on November
25-29, then 92, 90, and 88 on November 30 through December 2, and 86
on December 3-4.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 29, then 40, 35 and 12
on October 30 through November 1, 5 on November 2-5, then 12, 10 and
8 on November 6-8, 5 on November 9-14, then 10 and 8 on November
15-16, 5 on November 17-22, 8 on November 23-24, 10 on November
25-26, 5 on November 27-28, 8 on November 29, then 5 on November 30
through December 2, then 12, 10 and 8 on December 3-5.

Spaceweather.com reported on Thursday, "A strong G3-class
geomagnetic storm is possible on October 30 when the CME from
yesterday's X-flare is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field." This
is why the predicted planetary A index on October 30-31 is 40 and
35.

At 0129 UTC on October 29 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"(Sunspot) - AR2887 produced X1.0 flare at 28/1535 UTC, which
triggered a halo CME. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth in the
first half of UTC day 30 October. As a result, the geomagnetic
conditions are expected to reach major storm levels with a chance of
severe storm periods. The global Kp index may reach 7 (G3 storms).
On the local night of 30 October (and maybe 31 October), aurora may
be visible from Tasmania and the southern mainland coastal areas.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 30-31 OCTOBER 2021."

This weekend is the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, which should be
affected by the increased geomagnetic activity. The CW weekend is
November 27-28. ARRL November CW Sweepstakes is next weekend,
November 6-8.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 29 to November
23, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: November 4-5, 18-19,
quiet to unsettled on: October 31, November 9, 12-13, 17, 20, 22,
quiet to active on: October 29, November 1-3, 10-11, 21, 23,
unsettled to active on: October 30, November 6-8, 14, 16,
Active to disturbed: November (15),

"Solar wind will intensify on October 30-31, November 1, (8,) 9-10,
(11,) 16-17.

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Darrell, AA7FV sent this:

https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

He sent plots of 17 meter WSPR reports on October 28, which he noted
show the obvious effect of a CME from 1520-1550 UTC.

You really should check out his page on QRZ.com, and
https://www.qsl.net/aa7fv/ which give fascinating details of his
activities, and background in astrophysics.

Don't miss Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, and her latest video:

https://youtu.be/yvjR-AYm2zs

From Mike May WB8VLC Salem, Oregon.

"QSOs on upper HF bands For the end of October until 10-27, only the interesting QSOs are listed as there are just too many others from
17 to 10 meters to include.

"Note this interesting QSO on 15 meters AM, 2021-10-24 16:40 CT1EHI
15m 21.430 AM IM67aa Portugal.

"This was an AM QSO and amazing as signals were solid both ways on
AM.

"D4F on 10 SSB was the first real strong African region signal heard
in a long time here on 10 meters and a welcome QSO.

"HD8R has been the big DXpedition this week with big signals on 10
to 17 meters.

"2021-10-27 0129 HD8R 17m 18.080 CW EI49kd Galapagos Island
2021-10-26 1540 HD8R 10m 28.024 CW EI49kd Galapagos Islands
2021-10-26 1536 HD8R 12m 24.950 SSB EI49kd Galapagos Islands
2021-10-26 0151 HD8R 15m 21.024 CW EI49kd Galapagos Islands
2021-10-24 2227 E51JD 10m 28.420 SSB BG08ct South Cook Islands
2021-10-24 1917 VE8WD/M 15m 21.320 SSB Canada

"A nice QSO with a ham in Yellowknife running 100 watts mobile, he
was over 59 for 2 hours after our QSO."

A Canadian view on solar risks to the power grid:

https://bit.ly/3GIuy35

More on this week's space weather:

https://bit.ly/2XT1QdY

In a message titled "Good propagation these days," Angel Santana,
WP3GW reported from Puerto Rico on October 26:

"Yesterday at about 1730 UTC heard M5JON on 28.505 MHz which was a
surprise since it has been a long time since I heard an English
station on 10m. Did QSO with a 5-7 report to this side.

"Today contacted HD8R on 24.950 MHz split 5 up at 1851 UTC.

"I suppose and hope that the CQ WW SSB this weekend is why I am
hearing much activity on all bands."

Small portion of a message from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:

"Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly
below normal until at least mid-day Sunday.

"We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through
late October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days
compared to December, January, June and July caused by the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) more frequently persisting in a
southward orientation (-Bz).

"Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial
but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms.

"Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with
the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream.

"More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms
may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in
a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for
several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed fast CME.

"Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and
daylength is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

"Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the far
northern polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily
increasing polar night effects."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at. http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 21 through 27, 2021 were 11, 28, 32, 46,
81, 95, and 91, with a mean of 54.9. 10.7 cm flux was 81.9, 86.9,
86.8, 93.2, 100.6, 109.3, and 110.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of
4.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 2, 2, 4, 3, and 2, with a
mean of 3.6.
NNNN
/EX

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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 4, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
to 129.9.

There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
latitude A index.

At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream from November 4-5."

Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

"The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
absence of energetically significant phenomena.

"A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

"Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

"Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

"On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
universe.

"Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ, just days before Halloween!

"A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

"Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

"(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV )

"Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

"Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

"Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
disturbance could follow."

Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

Solar blasts in the news:

https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v

A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/

News about radio blackouts!

https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W

A smiley Sun:

https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd

New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I

Part 3 of her mini-course:

https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk

This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
details.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.
NNNN
/EX

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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 3, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2333 UTC on 02 NOVEMBER
2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Oct
combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov
is expected to produce a chance of G1 geomagnetic activity on 4-Nov
and G0-G1 activity on 5-Nov."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged in this reporting week, October 26
through November 1. Two on October 26, one on October 27, another on
October 28, two more on October 31 and another on November 1. One
more appeared on November 2.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while average
daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5.

Predicted solar flux is 158, 160, 162, 158 and 155 on November 3-7,
150 on November 8-9, 148, 136, and 134 on November 10-12, 130 on
November 13-15, then 125, 123, and 120 on November 16-18, then 125
on November 19-22, and 130 on November 23-26, then 132 on November
27, 134 on November 28-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138. 136 and
134 on December 7-9 and 130 on December 10-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-7, 12
on November 8-9, 8 on November 10, 5 on November 11-13, then 8 and
10 on November 14-15, 5 on November 16-21, then 15, 10, 15, 15, 20,
15 and 8 on November 22-28, 5 on November 29 through December 5,
then 12 and 8 on December 6-7 and 5 on December 8-10.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 03, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The coronal hole we saw in the northwest of the solar disk has
already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly
large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot
and flare activity decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely
reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore, the frequency of
geomagnetic disturbances is lower.

"This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the
solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and
overall, slightly better shortwave propagation. After that, however,
the solar flux will gradually return from 160 perhaps to somewhere
near 120. Therefore, MUF values will begin to slowly decline.

"As long as the coronal hole remains stable and persists in the
solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances
will become more frequent. Therefore, shortwave propagation will
gradually deteriorate, but no reliable forecast can be made very far
ahead."

From Dave, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky, EM78:

"At 1545 UTC on October 7, I experienced the thrill of a lifetime
when 3B9FR, Robert on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, answered
my CQ on 6-meter FT8. I had already worked 3B9FR 10 times over the
last 20 years on CW, SSB and FT8 on various HF bands but I never
anticipated working him on 6 meters.

"The morning began when I worked HC5VF at 1534 UTC with a very
strong signal. Hearing nothing else from the south, I turned my Yagi
toward Europe hoping perhaps someone there would decode my CQ. After
six unsuccessful CQs, Robert called me. I took a screenshot of our
QSO. I plan to have it framed for the shack wall. According to his
QRZ.com page, Robert runs 75 watts to a new 6-element quad on 6
meters. I was running 250 watts to a 3-element Yagi at 60 feet.

"On October 23, from 2059 to 2359 UTC, I worked 18 South Americans
on 6-meter FT8. Stations worked were in Argentina, Uruguay and
Brazil. Then the band changed around to the Pacific and for the
first time in some 30 years on 6 meters, I copied stations in
Australia. I decoded five stations in VK4, two in New Caledonia and
3D2AG in Fiji. Sadly, despite numerous calls, I did not work anyone
in the Pacific that day. But it was still a thrill to hear those
entities for the first time on 6 meters. And of course, the QSO into
the Indian Ocean, at a distance greater than 10,000 miles, made up
for it.

"I was very active on 2-meter SSB and CW from the mid-1970s until
about 2010 when I grew bored and took down my 2-meter Yagi. Earlier
this year, I felt the urge to return to the low end of 2 meters.
This time, FT8 seems to mostly have replaced SSB and CW for
weak-signal work. Since June 28, I have worked 30 states and 102
grid squares with my new 13-element Yagi.

"The big five-day tropo opening in August produced more than 160
QSOs from Colorado to Connecticut. In the middle of the afternoon
toward the end of that August opening, I decoded both ends of a QSO
between WQ0P in KS and W1VD in CT, I had worked both of them
earlier, but it was really something to watch them working over
about a 1,500 mile path."

From Bob, KB1DK:

"Conditions on 10 meters were fair for the CQWW SSB contest this
past weekend. While propagation was good from Connecticut to the
Middle East, south and central Europe, signals from Scandinavia, and north/central Russia were barely readable. This was in sharp
contrast to the conditions on the weekend of October 14th when I
worked 45 stations with strong signals in the Scandinavia Contest on
Saturday morning.

"On October 15th, I operated mobile for the first time. Using an old
Kenwood TS-570 and a quarter wave vertical magnetically mounted on
the roof, I logged 28 QSOs in 2 hours including South Africa,
Greece, South Russia and Scandinavia with respectable reports from a
fixed hilltop location. It was well worth the effort to wire up the
car. I did not want to miss out on the great propagation on 10
meters, especially after the conditions this past spring and last
fall.

"If you have an old rig, consider investing for a magnetic mount and
a 10 meter whip. You won't be disappointed. My next operating
location will be from the beach on Long Island Sound.

"All the best from the east coast."

K7SS reported to the Western Washington DX Club that he worked 10
meters only in the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, with 643 QSOs in 28
zones and 75 countries for a claimed score of 177,984 points.

Articles about an early peak of Solar Cycle 25:

https://bit.ly/3FF26jh

https://bit.ly/40ndQQN

https://bit.ly/45REtys

Trailblazing female astronomers, one is Mrs. Annie Maunder:

https://bit.ly/478EfEo

New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2023 were 57, 66,
70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. 10.7 cm flux was
126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of
137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and
9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21,
10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9.
NNNN
/EX

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