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Organization American Radio Relay League


SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 22, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity declined last week, and on one day (October 17) there
were no sunspots at all. Most days this week had the minimum
non-zero sunspot number, which is 11, indicating a single sunspot
group containing a single sunspot.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 23.7 to 11.3, and average
daily solar flux dropped seven points from 85.6 to 78.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index
declining from 12.4 to 8.4, and average middle latitude A index from
10.1 to 5.4. No middle latitude A index was available for October
16-18, so middle latitude A index figures presented at the bottom of
this bulletin are uneducated guesses on my part.

Despite the lower activity, I noticed frequent 10 and 12 meter
openings here at my location in Seattle, via FT8 mode.

Predicted solar flux appears lower too, with values at 82 and 83 on
October 22-23, 84 on October 24-25, 85 on October 26-29, 88 on
October 30, 85 on October 31 through November 11, 80 on November
12-20, then 85, 90, 95 and 90 on November 21-24, 88 on November
25-26, and 85 through the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 22, 5 on October 23
through November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on November 3-5, then 12, 10
and 8 on November 6-8, 5 on November 9-13, 12 on November 14-15, 8
on November 16-18, 5 on November 19-20, 10 on November 21, 5 on
November 22-28 and 8 on November 29.

Here's the geomagnetic activity forecast for October 22 - November
16 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: October 27, November 3-5,
quiet to unsettled on: October 22-24, 26, 30-31, November 9,
quiet to active on: October 25, November 1, 6, 10-13,
unsettled to active on: October (28-29,) November (2,) 7-8, 14-16,
Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

"Solar wind will intensify on October (22, 25,) 27-31, November 1,
(8,) 9-10, (11).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

On October 21 WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon, as well as posts on the
Western Washington DX Club email list noted strong S-9 SSB signals
on 15 meters from J5T in Guinea-Bissau.

He sent an extensive list of contacts, and said, "10, 12 and 15
meters have sounded like 20 meter phone for the past month, and not
listed are many 10 and 12 meter QSOs on SSB to South America and the
Pacific that I haven't included.

"Antennas all home made: 10 meter 4el Yagi at 30 feet and dual band
12/15 Moxon at 23 feet, on 17 I use my 15/12 Moxon loaded. All QSOs
use 400 to 500 watts with home made LDMOS amp and K3S."

A short list of a few of his contacts, all times in UTC:

2021-10-19 1517 FY5KE 10m 28.019 CW French Guiana
2021-10-18 0032 3D2AG 12m 24.907 CW Fiji
2021-10-18 0016 3D2AG 10m 28.029 CW Fiji
2021-10-17 2143 E51JD 10m 28.430 SSB South Cook Islands

Notes:
FY5KE - I hear him every week on 10 CW or 10 SSB since Sept 2021.
3D2AG - Antoine and I start on 10 CW then we move to 12 CW most weekends
3D2AG - ANTOINE has been on every night for the past week on 10 and 12.
CW since mid September.
E51JD - Jim has been on every week on 10 SSB since about early September.

N0JK in Kansas wrote: "The afternoon of October 18 sporadic-E
appeared over the east coast of North America. This allowed suitably
located stations in W3 such as NZ3M to make sporadic-E TEP contacts
to Argentina.

"The Es continued after sundown.

"In eastern Kansas, I found 6 Meters wide open after returning from
dinner with my XYL at 0010 UTC October 19. I made over a dozen FT8
contacts to W1, W2, W3, W4 and VE3. Best DX was WW1L in FN54 at over
1400 miles.

"Today October 21 is the peak of the Orionid Meteor Shower. I set up
portable and was able to work N0LL/P in rare grid DN80 at 1142 UTC
on 6 Meter meteor scatter using MSK144.

"Larry Lambert, N0LL is operating portable from rare grid DN80
during the Orionid Meteor shower on 6 Meters to help Fred Fish
Memorial Award (FFMA) enthusiasts log a new one.

"He had a strong sporadic-E opening on 6 Meters October 20, making
contacts from VE2 across the eastern states around 1600 UTC, then
west to California. His operation was planned to be primarily meteor
scatter, but rare October sporadic-E let many stations work a rare
grid square."

Yet another article concerning big solar activity and monster
flares:

https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/giant-solar-flare/

I like to check the STEREO mission for upcoming activity. I look out
for the big white splotchy images just over the eastern solar
horizon, which is on the left:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov

On October 21 Spaceweather.com noted: "A new sunspot group is
emerging over the Sun's southeastern limb. It is crackling with
activity."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 14 through 20, 2021 were 24, 11, 11, 0,
11, 11, and 11, with a mean of 11.3. 10.7 cm flux was 83.4, 84,
77.6, 77.4, 75.9, 76, and 75.9, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 10, 10, 14, and 6, with a mean of
8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 5, 6, 9, and 5, with a
mean of 5.4.
NNNN
/EX

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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
Perhaps this is a promising sign.

The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
what I mean:

https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB

I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

"Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

"Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
off.

Here is what he sent me:

A index (Boulder) 7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
A index (K7RA estimate) 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
Letter.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
through December 6.

From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

"Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
emerged in the northeast.

"Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
eastern edge of the solar disk."

Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

"I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
produced huge pileups of JA signals.

My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
gamma ray burst.

Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com and using the archives feature in
the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
unusual VLF antenna.

This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
long to reach us.

Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

https://bit.ly/3znjztv

More info on the event:

https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi

Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU

Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
phones? You can participate:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data

Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy

Some tabloid news on flares:

https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL

Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR

In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
were wrong.

The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 9.1.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 27, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

The recent solar activity decline continues. Weekly average daily
sunspot numbers starting with Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP039
on September 21 were 170.6, 128.6, 144.1, 89.4, and 41.9 for this
week.

Weekly average daily solar flux for the same period was 168.8,
155.6, 159.1, 145.1 and 123.5.

On October 25 Spaceweather.com noted "Solar Cycle 25 roared to life
in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters
have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025.
Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping."

But they note that in strong sunspot cycles temporary lulls are
common, and strong activity should resume soon, with a cycle peak
within the next two years.

Forecasters provided a recent link to NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3FyVWko

The next day they wrote, "NOAA has just issued a revised forecast
for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Max is coming quicker and stronger than
previously thought."

From NOAA:

https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update

Three new sunspot groups appeared this week over October 20-22.

What is the outlook for the next month?

Predicted solar flux is 126 on October 27-28, 130 on October 29-30,
132 on October 31, 134 on November 1-2, 150 on November 3-5, 140 on
November 6-9, 135 on November 10-11, then 145, 140, 135 and 135 on
November 12-15, 140 on November 16-18, then 135 and 140 on November
19-20, and 145 on November 21-24, and 150 on November 25 through
December 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 8, 5, 20, 18 and 8 on October 27
through November 1, then 5 on November 2-8, then 12 and 8 on
November 9-10, 5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, 10 and 8
on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, then 8 on November 23-26,
and 10 and 12 on November 27-28, and 5 on November 29 through
December 5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere from F.K. Janda, OK1HH on October 26, 2023.

"In the last seven days we observed two surprises. For the first
time, after the solar flare of 16 October, we saw a geomagnetic
disturbance on 19 October. But it started on October 18 and
continued to October 20.

"Solar activity gradually decreased, M-class flares ceased, and only
isolated C-class flares continued. By October 23 only two or three
small groups of spots remained on the solar disk.

"On October 21, the Earth's magnetic field activity briefly
increased, which, together with a multi-day decrease in solar
radiation, caused low MUF values and thus shorter intervals of upper
shortwave band openings.

"The geomagnetically quiet development on 22-25 October caused only
a gradual improvement in shortwave propagation conditions. In
addition, the daily MUF values were relatively very low.

"Then, on the 26th, the Earth's magnetic field activity increased.
Positive phase of disturbance started in the daytime UT, accompanied
by an increase in MUF (with a maximum around 1300 UT).

"I don't expect any significant rise in solar activity in October.
It is indeed forecast for November, but even the STEREO satellites,
in service for 10 years, have not yet observed more interesting
activity."

N0JK wrote:

"The weekend of Oct 20-22 had some outstanding propagation on 6
meters.

"Saturday afternoon October 21 there were Es links to TEP
(Trans-Equatorial Propagation) on toward the South Pacific from the
Midwest. N0LL copied FK8CP and ZL1RS on just a hamstick vertical
while driving from Salina to his home in Smith Center, Kansas. He
later worked E51WL from his home around 2130 UTC.

"I was staying at the La Quinta Inn in Scottsdale for the weekend.
Had my MFJ-9406 along and used a dipole antenna in the hotel room. I
copied N0LL in EM09, N0KQY in DM98 and N0OT in DM88 on 6 meter Es
calling DX stations around 1945 UTC. Es in October are rare, and Es
links rarer still.

"Later that evening I managed to work W5JAY in EM26 on 6m FT8 via Es
at 0136 UTC October 22. Power was 7 watts to the indoor dipole. East
coast stations were working the South Pacific on Es links to TEP.

"That next afternoon Arizona had Es - link to TEP to South America.
I copied XE1H in DL80 at the first Es hop.

"At 2333 UTC on October 22 on 50.313 Rx FT8 copied XE1H in DL80
calling CQ.

"October 24 at 2335 UTC copied PY5CC in GG54 via Es link to TEP.

"Spaceweather.com noted a CME impact October 20. The active
geomagnetic field boosted the TEP MUF and may have sparked some of
the sporadic-E as well.

"73, Jon, N0JK in DM43 (usually EM28)."

From Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania.

"Two New Continents on 10 meters 29.600 FM.

"The upper end of the 10 meter band (29.600 FM) is still kind of
rough, but on Wednesday, October 18th, 1752 UTC I worked Naama, S01A (Sierra-Zero-One-Alpha) in Western Sahara, Africa, grid IL56hb, RS:
5x9+ peak both ways. Distance 3607 miles.

"His QRZ page: https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A

"Then on Monday, October 23rd, 2206 UTC worked Hirobumi, JF7AWV in
Kouriyama, Japan, grid PM95vq calling CQ, went back to his call and
he heard me RS: 5x5, he was a RS: 3x3 moderate QSB. Distance 6502
miles.

"Just a reminder to operators, please use the ITU Phonetic Alphabet.
It makes picking out your callsign much more rapidly with less
confusion under weak propagation conditions.

"Equipment: Kenwood TS-690S, 80 watts, Cushcraft 10-Meter Ringo 5/8
wave vertical 10 feet off ground."

And I have a reminder to FM operators on 29.6 MHz.

This is the national simplex calling frequency and gets quite busy.
When making contact, I ask the other station to QSY to a simplex
frequency, such as 29.2 MHz. [K7RA]

Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8

Note that this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ World Wide DX
Contest.

See https://www.cqww.com/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25, 2023 were 39, 56, 65, 48,
25, 34, and 26, with a mean of 41.9. 10.7 cm flux was 128.7, 125.7,
122.6, 118.8, 122.1, 121.1, and 125.8, with a mean of 123.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 22, 8, 3, 4, and 4, with a
mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 13, 7, 2, 2, and 3,
with a mean of 6.1.
NNNN
/EX

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