• ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 15 13:02:36 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP42
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 15, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    Although we saw sunspots on every day of this reporting week
    (October 7-13), solar activity declined somewhat. Average daily
    sunspot numbers went from 30.7 to 23.7, and average daily solar flux
    from 86.9 to 85.6. Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average
    daily planetary A index rising from 8.1 to 12.4, and average daily
    middle latitude A index from 6.7 to 10.1.

    On Saturday, October 9, Spaceweather.com reported a strong
    Earth-directed M1.6 class solar flare and CME erupting at 0640 UTC,
    causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. This
    caused the planetary A index on October 12 to hit 45, and Alaska's
    College A index to read 60.

    Predicted solar flux is 82 on October 15, 80 and 78 on October
    16-17, 76 on October 18-22, 85 on October 23-24, then 90, 100, 95
    and 90 on October 25-28, 88 on October 29-30, 85 on October 31
    through November 5, 88 on November 6, 85 on November 7-13, 88 on
    November 14-15, 90 on November 16, 88 on November 17-18, and back to
    100 on November 22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 15-16, 5 on October 17,
    12 on October 18-19, 8 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, 10 on
    October 25, 5 on October 26 to November 1, 8 on November 2, 5 on
    November 3-5, 10 on November 6-7, 8 on November 8-9, 5 on November
    10-12, then 10, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on November 13-17, and 5 on
    November 18-20, then 10 on November 21, and 5 through the end of the
    month.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 15 to November
    09, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: October 16-17, November 3, 5,
    quiet to unsettled on: October 20-22, 24, 26-27, 30-31, November 4,
    quiet to active on: October 23, 25, November 6,
    unsettled to active on: October (15, 18-19, 28-29,) November (1-2,) 7-9,
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

    "Solar wind will intensify on October (19, 22, 25,) 27-31, November
    1, 9.

    "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    On October 12, Spaceweather.com reported in an email alert: "Last
    night, a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth's magnetic field,
    sparking a moderately strong geomagnetic storm. Auroras were sighted
    in the USA as far south as Nebraska with lights so bright in some
    places that onlookers successfully photographed them using cell
    phones."

    The November 2021 issue of QST arrived, and the article on page 70, "Propagation Tools and Resources for Contesting" by WO1N, KC2G and
    members of the Yankee Clipper Contest Club, shares some great
    resources, not only of interest to contest operators.

    Here's an interesting article on 60 meters propagation:

    https://bit.ly/2YNlHLN

    The latest video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/XrPW4337IHI

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
    For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 7 through 13, 2021 were 13, 13, 14, 38,
    35, 26, and 27, with a mean of 23.7. 10.7 cm flux was 85.7, 92.4,
    81, 84.5, 88.5, 83.5, and 83.5, with a mean of 85.6. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 13, 45, and 6, with a mean of
    12.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 9, 15, 32, and 5, with a
    mean of 10.1.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 21 17:28:01 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP42
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 21, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
    (October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
    to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
    119.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
    index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
    to 8.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
    another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
    and one more on October 20.

    I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
    my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
    offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

    The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
    first week in November.

    Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
    23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
    160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
    November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
    on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
    November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
    week in December.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
    15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
    October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
    November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
    on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
    November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
    November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

    Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
    strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
    deeper into the Fall season.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

    "A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
    2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
    strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

    "From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
    around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
    whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

    "Signals were strong.

    "The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
    the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

    "Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
    when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
    G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

    "In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
    sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

    "It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
    of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
    speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
    again.

    "We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
    frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
    from the last days of October onward."

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4

    Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

    "For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
    more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
    heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
    which is very active.

    "You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

    "This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
    and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
    stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
    signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

    "Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
    11pm their local time.

    "So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
    may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

    Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
    across 10 meters.

    Bob, KB1DK writes:

    "I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
    mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
    accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
    happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

    "The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
    conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
    month of use. I highly recommend the website.

    "Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
    from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
    were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

    "The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
    were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
    Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
    several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
    Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
    with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
    working stations from the west coast."

    The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com .

    A new photo of a solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
    84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
    115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
    a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 20 13:08:21 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP42
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 20, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity dropped dramatically this week, with only two new
    sunspot groups emerging, on October 14 and 16.

    Compared to last week, the average daily sunspot number slipped from
    144.1 to 89.4, and average daily solar flux from 159.1 to 145.1.

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 6.4, and average
    daily middle latitude A index from 8.3 to 5.

    Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20-21, 132 on October
    22-23, 134 on October 24-25, 136 on October 26, 145 on October
    27-28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on November 6-9,
    135 on November 10-11, 145 and 140 on November 12-13, 135 on
    November 14-15, then 140 on November 16-18, 135 and 140 on November
    19-20, 145 on November 21-24, and 150 through the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on October
    20-24, 5 on October 25-26, 8 on October 27-30, 10 and 12 on October
    31 through November 1, 5 on November 2-8, 12 and 8 on November 9-10,
    5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, then 10 and 8 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-22, and 8 on November 23-26.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - October 19, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "In the last ten days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from
    ten to three. At the same time the solar flux has dropped
    significantly - from 166 to 135. The last two slightly larger solar
    flares were observed on 16 October. The larger of the two occurred
    in AR3467. The magnetic filament associated with it exploded and
    blew a CME into space.

    "According to NASA's models, while it didn't head directly for
    Earth, it still likely hit it on October 18 (the original estimate
    was that it would happen a day later). Which, while not enough to
    cause a geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an 'unsettled' state.

    "This was followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a
    decline on 19 October. These lines are written at a time when short
    periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19
    October, with a possible duration into the first half of 20 October
    UT.

    "A return of larger sunspots and a rise in solar flux towards 150
    can be expected by the end of the month."

    Regarding 10 meter comments by K7SS in last week's Propagation
    Forecast bulletin, Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo-Alto, Puerto
    Rico responded, "I second Dan's, K7SS comments on getting on the air
    even if you are a Tech on 10 meters.

    "I can attest that the band is in good shape: Can contact European
    stations with ease even if my antenna is pointing to the US and when
    it is 2pm local can still contact them when they are at their local
    8-10 pm.

    "My score in contests recently reflect more QSOs on 10 meters and
    now that we are in contest season it is a great opportunity to get
    on the air and see how many countries you can work.

    "You can also check and hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz as of late
    confirming that the band is truly live. And of course, the FM
    (29-29.8 MHz) segment."

    Dr. Julio Medina, NP3CW wrote:

    "Sending some information of activity in 6M band since May to
    October 2023.

    "Been copying stations from Japan, China, Africa, and many others
    such as Philippines on FT8 early in the morning from 1200-1400 UTC
    in FT8 in the 6m band."

    Jon, N0JK wrote on October 6:

    "The 6 meter sporadic-E - linking to TEP (trans equatorial
    propagation) openings usually occur in the afternoon. But there was
    a late evening Es -- TEP opening on October 6.

    "Earlier in the afternoon October 6 I had some weak TEP from South
    America to Kansas. It faded out around 0030 UTC. Then some
    sporadic-E took place. Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month
    with less Es is March. That itself is noteworthy, and I logged
    stations in Arizona and northern Mexico starting at 0100 UTC October
    7 on 6 meter FT8. Then at 0133 UTC I began seeing a FT8 trace at
    2,500 Hz. Then it decoded, and was Dale, CE2SV (FF47) sending a
    report to W0SZ in Colorado. When they finished, I called CE2SV.
    After a couple of calls Dale came back and we completed a contact at
    0136 UTC. His signal varied from -10 dB to -17 dB.

    "What is remarkable is I was operating from home using just an attic
    dipole for an antenna. I also decoded CE3SOC and XQ3MCC. N0LL in
    EM09 also worked some South American stations. This was 'evening'
    TEP, which typically has a shorter range than afternoon TEP. The
    evening TEP signals usually have a distinctive 'TEP flutter' sound
    and sometimes don't decode with FT8. Q65 can be a better digital
    mode for evening TEP.

    "I saw on the ON4KST 6 meter chat page N9PGG in North Carolina
    worked FK8HA and VK4 stations. This was a sporadic-E link (on the
    same Es I had to the south) out to the South Pacific.

    "On another note -- stations in Central America, the Caribbean and
    northern South America have been making 6 meter Long Path contacts
    with east Asia and Malaysia from 1200 - 1600 UTC the last couple of
    mornings.

    "6 meter long path is best with high solar flux and low geomagnetic
    activity.

    "2023-10-07 15:16 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0MZI (OI33JQ) LoTW eQSL 18626 km

    "2023-10-07 15:00 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0SAS (OI33JS) LoTW eQSL 18623 km

    "2023-10-07 14:54 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0COU (OI33IU) LoTW eQSL 18611 km

    "2023-10-07 14:52 JA6GNL (PM53GO) 50.310.0 FT8 PJ4MM (FK52VE) LoTW 14545 km

    "FT8 CQ AS:

    "2023-10-07 14:38 PJ4MM (FK52VE) 50.313.0 FT8 4W/JH2EUV (PI21) LoTW 18502 km +12"

    A video about predicting Solar Flares (Helioseismology):

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24

    A video about a Class X2 flare:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2

    A video about a Cannibal CME:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk

    A report about Solar Cycle history:

    https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2023 were 126, 91, 100,
    92, 106, 57, and 54, with a mean of 89.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.1,
    149, 148.2, 144.6, 144, 137.3, and 135.3, with a mean of 145.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 8, 4, 4, 3, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 6, 2, 3, 2, and 8,
    with a mean of 5.
    NNNN
    /EX

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