XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Aug 09 0352 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 August 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels. An isolated C1 flare peaked
at 09/0004 UTC just after the reporting period from new Region 2853
(N23, L=192, class/area Axx/010 on 08 Aug). The single spot just
appeared late on 08 Aug but was preceded by an area of active plage
which rotated onto the visible disk on 06 Aug. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 04-05 Aug with a peak flux of 1,570 pfu observed at
05/1725 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming. An enhancement in the IMF field began at
02/0900 UTC, likely from a glancing blow from the 28 Jul CME. Total
field reached a peak of 13 nT at 02/1810 UTC, while the Bz component
was mostly negative for 1.5 days reaching -13 nT briefly 02/1815
UTC. Solar wind speed at this time was between 300-400 km/s. The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1 storm levels on 02 Aug
and quiet to active levels on 03 Aug. Quiet conditions were observed
on 04 Aug through late on 06 Aug. By the middle of 06 Aug, a likely
CIR preceding a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) was observed causing total field to increase to a
maximum of 13 nT at 07/0620 UTC along with a prolonged period of
southward Bz to -9 nT. Solar wind speed briefly increased to near
475 km/s on 07 Aug before declining to below 400 km/s by midday on
08 Aug. The geomagnetic field reached unsettled periods late on 06
Aug through 07 Aug followed by quiet levels on 08 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 August - 04 September 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for further C-class flares through 19 Aug if Region 2853 continues
to develop and show activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
09-10 Aug, 16-18 Aug, 23-25 Aug, and 02-04 Sep and reach active
levels on 24 Aug and 03 Sep due to CH HSS activity.

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