• ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 8 21:01:54 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP41
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 8, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspots were visible every day this week, but numbers were lower.
    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 58.4 to 30.7, and
    average daily solar flux was down 2.9 points to 86.9.

    Geomagnetic activity was a little higher, with average daily
    planetary A index going from 7.3 to 8.1, and average daily middle
    latitude A index from 6.3 to 6.7.

    Friday, October 1 was affected by a solar flare from sunspot group
    AR2871, driving the planetary A index to 15. This had a greater
    effect at higher latitudes, with Alaska's College A index hitting 30
    and 31 on Friday and Saturday. In the middle of the UTC day on
    Saturday the College K index hit 7, a high number.

    Predicted solar flux is 86 on October 8 and 9, 84 on October 10 to
    14, 75 on October 15 to 16, then 80, 85, 88 and 90 on October 17 to
    20, 88 on October 21 and 22, 85 on October 23 and 24, then 90, 100,
    95 and 90 on October 25 to 28, 88 on October 29 through November 5,
    85 and 80 on November 6 and 7, 75 on November 8 to 12, then 80, 85,
    88 and 90 on November 13 to 16.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 8 to 10, then 12 and 8
    on October 11 and 12, 5 on October 13 to 17, then 10, 12, 10 and 8
    on October 18 to 21, 5 on October 22 to 24, 10 on October 25, 5 on
    October 26 to 31, 8 on November 1 and 2, 5 on November 3, 8 on
    November 4 and 5, 5 on November 6 to 13, then 10, 12, 10 and 8 on
    November 14 to 17.

    On October 4 Spaceweather.com reported "Solar Cycle 25 continues to overperform. Sunspot counts for Sept. 2021 were the highest in
    more than 5 years. And, for the 11th month in a row, the sunspot
    number has significantly exceeded the official forecast." They
    provided this link to that forecast:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update

    They continued, "Higher than expected sunspot counts suggest a
    stronger cycle, with a peak occurring in late 2024 instead of
    mid-2025."

    You can read it yourself via the site's archive feature.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 8 til November
    2, 2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on October 16 and 17
    Quiet to unsettled on October 8 and 9, 11 to 13, 20 to 22, 24, 26
    and 27, 30 and 31
    Quiet to active on October 10, 15, 23, 25, November 2
    Unsettled to active on October 14, (18 and 19, 28 and 29,) November 1
    Active to disturbed, Nothing predicted

    Solar wind will intensify on October 11, (19, 22, 25,) 28

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

    After 0000 UTC on October 5, I (K7RA) was calling CQ using FT8 on 12
    meters, and noted on pskreporter.info that only two stations outside
    my local (CN88uq) Seattle area were receiving me, W2PKY (EL88vi) and
    KZ4RB (EL99ic) in Florida, both over 2,500 miles away. W2PKY noted
    in an email that 12 meters is a strange band, and reports such as
    this are quite common. He also noted that on Wednesday, October 6,
    "10 meters was really rockin'.".

    I notice frequently that 12 meters has propagation for me across
    North America when 10 meters does not. This will change with more
    sunspot activity.

    NN4X reported last Friday, October 1 from EL98jh in Florida:

    "BTW, there were some good LP AND SP openings on 12m to Asia
    yesterday. I worked HS3PJF at 1415 UTC and YB2HND at 1425 UTC via
    SHORT PATH, over the North Pole. I also worked BA5CW at 1307 UTC,
    beaming LP. Thursday evening, I worked RW0LT on 12m at 0022 UTC.

    So, we're getting there."

    K9LA noted in a recent email, "Events in the lower atmosphere
    coupling up to the ionosphere are another factor that can screw up
    (or enhance) the bands, not just geomagnetic field activity. With
    no parameters to define these lower atmospheric events, we're really
    running blind in the short-term. And this is why our propagation
    predictions programs are not daily models."

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a three-hour course, "The Ionospheric
    Weather Ballet, Part 1."

    https://youtu.be/SoXXEIetg4k

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 30 through October 6, 2021 were 46,
    28, 25, 38, 29, 27, and 22, with a mean of 30.7. 10.7 cm flux was
    94.6, 90.5, 87, 86, 83.5, 81.7, and 84.8, with a mean of 86.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 15, 8, 6, 6, 5, and 8, with a
    mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 13, 6, 6, 4, 6, and 6,
    with a mean of 6.7.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 14 13:20:17 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP41
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 14, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
    with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
    149.2 to 155.3.

    A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
    when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
    is better than predicted.

    October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day
    Spaceweather.com warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
    magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

    The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp .

    Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
    the first week in November at 160.

    The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
    14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
    October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
    and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
    on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
    November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
    5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
    12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
    November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
    then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
    9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
    November 18-22.

    With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
    season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
    beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
    total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
    lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
    those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
    shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
    ends.

    "Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
    many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
    clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
    could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
    between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
    magnetosphere calm down.

    "The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
    until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
    observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
    observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
    smaller AR3116.

    "All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
    and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
    disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

    "Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
    while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
    to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
    still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
    propagation.

    "We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
    be replaced by an increase later in October."

    John, W2QL wrote:

    "I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
    UTC, -18 dB.

    "My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
    RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
    southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
    6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
    to be F2.

    "10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
    3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
    but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
    and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
    Kansas.

    "Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

    "Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
    car."

    Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
    although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
    was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
    aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
    still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
    aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3CQEveO

    Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
    cannot kill it.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
    114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
    159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
    with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
    7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 13 10:07:07 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP41
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 13, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    The numbers looked better during this reporting week, October 5-11.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 128.6 to 144.1, and average
    solar flux from 155.6 to 159.1.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 7.6, and average
    middle latitude A index from 8.9 to 8.3.

    For some reason the middle latitude numbers were not available from Fredericksburg, Virginia so we used the data from Boulder, Colorado.

    Nine new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 5,
    one on October 7, two on October 8, one on October 9, another on
    October 10, and two more on October 11.

    HF conditions have been excellent, as the season turns deeper into
    Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. I really notice a difference on
    10, 12 and 15 meters.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 13, 155 on October 14-16, 152
    on October 17-18, then 150, 148, 150 and 152 on October 19-22, 152
    on October 23-24, 158 on October 25, 160 on October 26-28, 158 on
    October 29-30, 156 on October 31 through November 1, then 155, 156,
    156, 158 and 160 on November 2-6, 158 on November 7-8, then 156 on
    November 9-10, then 155, 154, 152 and 150 on November 11-14, 148 on
    November 15-16, then 150, 152, 154 and 154 on November 17-20.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 5, 12, 10 and 8 on October
    13-19, 5 on October 20-30, 15 and 12 on October 31 through November
    1, 5 on November 2-5, then 10, 8, and 10 on November 6-8, 15 on
    November 9-10, then 8 on November 11, and 5 on November 12 to the
    end of the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere October 13-19, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Unlike most days in September, the Earth's geomagnetic activity has
    finally dropped. Solar activity is high enough that there was a
    significant improvement in shortwave propagation on a global scale.

    "Around October 7, although there was still a possibility that Earth
    would be hit by a CME that left the Sun on October 3, it did not
    happen. Whereupon, especially on quiet days in the middle of this
    week, the improvement was unmistakable.

    "Two or three sunspot groups continue to be observed on the Sun.
    They are able to produce up to moderate intensity flares. But the
    area of the spots is not large, so we do not expect a CME based on
    their magnetic configuration either.

    "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of more extensive active regions
    on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, it is safe to assume that
    solar activity will be elevated for the rest of October. Which of
    course brings with it possible increases in solar wind speeds with
    higher particle concentrations, but this is not enough to predict a disturbance, only to vaguely state the possibility of one."

    Dan, K7SS wrote:

    "Just an FYI to those of us who may know anyone new to HF, and the
    fact that 10m seems to be at a fantastic peak of conditions
    recently, it would be a great shame for anyone who is new to HF to
    miss this peak (or pre-peak?) with 10m so open during the daylight
    and well into the evening darkness. Just recall the thrill of DX you
    had early on.

    "Would like to encourage everyone [in the club] to think about who
    they might know that's pretty new and give a gentle prod to get them
    on 10m. Even with a minimal antenna and power, the band is
    supporting signals around the world right now. This may be our peak,
    or perhaps this is a bellwether of things to come and may get even
    better, but maybe not.

    "If any tech licensee can get on 10m with even a minimal signal, it
    will not disappoint. 28300 to 28500 kHz is theirs, and the
    playground is full. And no place better to get the DX BUG than by
    working some EU with low power and a small wire or vertical antenna.
    NOW IS THE TIME.

    "You don't want to have to explain in a year or two from now, that
    they SHOULD have been on working DX and if not, may have to wait for
    another cycle peak in 12-14 years.

    "Personally, I'm having the time of my life with EU openings in the
    morning around 10AM-12PM local. The THRILL IS BACK. 10m Lives."

    An article about a 15,000 year history of extreme solar events:

    https://bit.ly/3FctowT

    Commercial space companies approach their first solar maximum:

    https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma

    Korean records from the 14th to 19th centuries reveal sunspot cycle
    history:

    https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af

    Safely watch the eclipse with a disco ball. (I do not know if this
    is actually safe):

    https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz

    Articles about the "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse:

    https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY

    https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc

    An article about the Sun's polarity flip:

    https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF

    Video about Sunspot AR3038:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl

    Optimistic outlook on Aurora:

    https://bit.ly/46tIOcb

    Don't forget the eclipse event this Saturday, October 14:

    https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse.

    And at the last minute Thursday night, a new video from Dr. Tamitha
    Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2023 were 179, 138, 145,
    149, 129, 120, and 149, with a mean of 144.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    156.1, 155.3, 157.2, 157.1, 165.5, 164.4, and 158, with a mean of
    159.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 5, 7, 8, 4, and 4,
    with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 4, 10, 9, 6,
    and 4, with a mean of 8.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

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