• ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 1 10:11:34 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP40
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 1, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity was up over the past week, with the average daily
    sunspot number rising from 28.7 to 59.4, and average daily solar
    flux up 11.4 points to 89.8.

    The noon 10.7 cm solar flux was 101.6 on Wednesday, September 29,
    the highest value since December 3, 2020, when it was 102.9.
    Unfortunately, the following day that value slipped seven whole
    points back to 94.6

    Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A
    index values declining from 9.1 to 7.3, and average middle latitude
    A index from 8.4 to 6.3.

    Nice to see our Sun peppered with spots again as we move into the
    second week of Fall in the northern hemisphere.

    Predicted solar flux as of Thursday is much lower than it was the
    day before.

    The updated flux values are 95 on October 1-3, 90 on October 4-5, 85
    on October 6-7, 74 on October 8-9, 78 on October 10-12, 80 non
    October 13, 84 on October 14-15, 86 on October 16-17, 88 on October
    18-22, 86 on October 23-25, 84 on October 26, 80 on October 27-29,
    78 on October 30-31, 76 on November 1, and 74 on November 2-5.

    Flux values may rise back to 88 by mid-November.

    Predicted planetary A index is 24, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, 5 on
    October 4-9, 12 on October 10, 5 again on October 11-17, then 10,
    12, 10 and 8 on October 18-21, 5 on October 22-23, then 18, 15 and
    12 on October 24-26, 5 on October 27-30, 8 on October 31, 12 on
    November 1, and 5 on November 2-5, then 12 on November 6.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 1-26, 2021 from
    F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be:
    quiet on: October 13, 16-18, 22-23,
    quiet to unsettled on: October 3-4, 6-9, 12, 20-21,
    quiet to active on: October 2, 5, 10- 11, 14-15,
    unsettled to active on: October 1, (19, 24-26)
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

    "Solar wind will intensify on October (3,) 11, (19, 22-23, 25).

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Contradictory indications currently reduce the accuracy of the
    forecast."

    I often use FT8 and https://pskreporter.info/ to check propagation
    on different bands, and over the past week there were days when I
    saw no reception reports of my station on 10 meters, but plenty of
    activity on 12 meters. The 12 meter openings were typically to
    stations 2,000 miles to the east of me, over a narrow swath along
    the eastern seaboard of North America. This was with a very simple
    end-fed non-resonant wire antenna and 30 watts of output power.

    Check this link about Sunspot, New Mexico:

    https://go.nasa.gov/2ZGGh0J

    Bob, AA6XE, sent this:

    "September 2021 is winding down and here is a preview of the solar
    numbers we can expect this Friday. The solar flux for September
    looks to be 86.5 measured and 88 adjusted for 1 AU. This is the
    second highest reading of the new solar cycle topped only by the
    dramatic run-up last November. Take a good long last look at those
    numbers as the current ramp-up in solar activity will easily blast
    through them in October. In the closing 36 hours of the month the
    10.7 cm solar flux had jumped up 12 points to 101 and was rising
    fast as this report was being typed up.

    "The Monthly Mean Sunspot Number for September will be in the low to
    mid 50s (new scale), say 54 (new scale) when converted to the old
    scale, so when we can compare it to traditional counts it equates to
    38 (old scale). The Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) for September is
    46 (new scale), 32 (old scale). September's sunspot numbers are
    easily the highest of the new solar cycle thus far.

    "And the good news doesn't stop there. On September 14 Scott
    MacIntosh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research
    announced that he expects the termination event concluding Solar
    Cycle 24 is imminent and a rapid run-up in solar activity to
    commence in mid-November. Solar minimum was recorded in November
    2019, the last SWPC numbered SC24 sunspot was observed in July 2020,
    the last un-numbered SC24 active region was observed on August 14,
    2021. It appears that Solar Cycle 24 is over.

    "73 and Best DX!"

    More sunspot coverage from local newspapers:

    https://bit.ly/3FaNsys

    And this:

    https://www.space.com/the-mysterious-sunspots

    Bil Paul, KD6JUI from Dixon, California, who operates from his
    kayak, sent this on September 27:

    "You're probably getting reports of a great opening to Europe
    Sunday, but here's my story:

    "I was operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a home-brew small
    loop on Sunday around noon when I allowed the wind to orient the
    boat and the antenna in the direction it chose. That was toward the
    northeast from CA, fortunate because Europe was coming in like
    gangbusters. Operating SSB, I first contacted IK7YTT in Italy on
    17m, followed by Spain and Hungary on 20m. They all had a little
    trouble making out my callsign but make it out they did. My location
    was Lake Berryessa in Napa County, California.

    "This opening certainly provides hope for further such openings
    during the coming solar cycle peak. I'm not too surprised when I can
    contact Japan or Australia from CA, but Europe is something else
    entirely!"

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, with some exciting news:

    https://youtu.be/nBhmY10LoC4

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 23 through 29, 2021 were 75, 75, 38,
    67, 30, 57, and 74, with a mean of 59.4. 10.7 cm flux was 89.7,
    88.4, 88.4, 86.3, 85.3, 88.9, and 101.6, with a mean of 89.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 8, 7, 3, 7, 10, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 6, 7, 2, 6, 9, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.3.
    NNNN
    /EX

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 7 19:13:16 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP40
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 7, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29
    through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing
    toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and
    average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

    Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was
    just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

    This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30,
    one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday,
    October 6.

    I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings
    lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago
    and with higher sunspot numbers.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9,
    then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130
    on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on
    October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on
    October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155
    on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130
    on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130
    on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10,
    5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16,
    then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22
    to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8
    on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

    On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot",
    AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's
    eastern horizon. They predict this could produce two weeks of high
    solar activity.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following
    conditions would be calmer. This assumption was shattered after
    AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to
    appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

    Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind
    from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight
    increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and
    October 2.

    However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which
    ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group,
    but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active
    region. It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific
    and parts of North America. Apparently, it blasted a CME into
    space.

    This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with
    over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar
    disk.

    It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into
    space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of
    strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

    As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

    However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the
    following days.

    Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region
    persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament
    erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The plasma clouds
    are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8
    October."

    Big filament.

    https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC

    https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ

    The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

    https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME

    https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56,
    74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4. 10.7 cm flux
    was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean
    of 149.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16,
    and 14, with a mean of 12.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2,
    9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.
    NNNN
    /EX

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 6 19:40:13 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP40
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 6, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2308 UTC on October 5, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "A recent, mild CME impact, combined with the expected arrival of a
    coronal hole high speed wind stream on 7 Oct, gives the chance for
    G1 geomagnetic conditions over 6 and 7 Oct."

    Seven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, but overall
    solar activity declined.

    With consecutive dates you can initiate an animation using the back
    and forward buttons on your browser.

    We are currently enjoying improved HF propagation with the change of
    seasons after the autumnal equinox. This is particularly noticeable
    on 12 and 10 meters.

    Here is an optimistic news story about the current solar cycle.

    https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/

    https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1

    One new sunspot group appeared on September 30, three more on
    October 1, and one on each of the following days, October 2, 3 and
    4. On October 5, two more sunspot groups appeared, and the daily
    sunspot number shot up to 179, the highest since September 26.
    Previously, a high of 219 was on July 12.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 170.6 to 128.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 168.8 to 155.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter. Average daily planetary A
    index went from 17 to 9.1, and average daily middle latitude A index
    declined from 13.7 to 8.9.

    The outlook for the next month has predicted solar flux at 158 on
    October 6 and 7, 155, 152, 152, 150 and 145 on October 8 to 12, 158
    on October 13 and 14, 156 on October 15 to 17, 154 on October 18 to
    20, 152 on October 21, 154 on October 22 and 23, 156 and 158 on
    October 24 and 25, 160 on October 26 to 28, 162 on October 29 to 31,
    then 164 on November 1 to 3, 168 on November 4, 165 on November 5
    and 6, 162 and 160 on November 7 and 8, 158 on November 9 and 10,
    and 156 on November 11 to 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 25, 10 and 5 on October 6 to 9, 8
    on October 10 and 11, 5 on October 12 to 21, then 10 and 8 on
    October 22 to 23, 5 on October 24 to 28, then 15, 12, 8, 15 and 8 on
    October 29 through November 2, and 5 on November 3 through the
    middle of the month.

    Flares in the news:

    https://bit.ly/46AiGMs

    https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere -- October 5, 2023 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "After witnessing a number of solar flares (though at most of
    moderate magnitude) during the past month, plus three solar plasma
    cloud impacts (CMEs), late September and early October, which were a
    bit quieter.

    However, the development of solar and especially geomagnetic
    activity was so irregular that it was difficult to make predictions
    for the following days. The geomagnetic calm on 28 September did
    not mean an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions, but
    rather a deterioration compared to the previous day, which was not
    calm. The improvement on 2 and 3 October was the result of a
    relative calm with non-declining solar activity.

    Subsequent developments were mostly quieter. Nevertheless, there
    were significant fluctuations in MUF on 4 October with a slight
    deterioration. The explanation for the causes can be found mainly
    in the timing of the overall development. Specifically,
    deterioration often occurred after geomagnetic activity increased
    overnight. In addition, sporadic layer E activity increased at
    times (especially on 4-5 October). There was also a slight increase
    in the concentration of protons in the solar wind on 3 October and
    especially still on 5 October.

    Irregular propagation conditions can be expected to continue, yet
    there should already be less of a difference between expectations
    and actual developments in October than there was in September."

    W2BEE sent this about aurora: https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU

    Time lapse animation of sunspot:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg

    Max White M0VNG sent this, about the solar atmosphere:

    https://bit.ly/3ZJydau

    Check these links for the upcoming HamSCI propagation tests during
    upcoming solar eclipses, the first on October 14, 2023:

    https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse

    http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023

    New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
    us which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2023 were 109,
    102, 106, 136, 146, 150, and 151, with a mean of 128.6. 10.7 cm
    flux was 147.8, 155, 159.1, 161.1, 157.4, 153.7, and 155, with a
    mean of 155.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 10, 9, 9,
    8, and 10, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 13,
    11, 9, 10, 6, and 8, with a mean of 8.9.
    NNNN
    /EX

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