• ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 24 10:21:05 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP39
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 24, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP038 reported a big
    increase in activity with the daily sunspot number going to 124, but
    by the end of that week all sunspots disappeared. The Sun was blank
    for several days, but sunspots returned on September 19.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were 28.7 this week, below the 58.3
    average reported a week earlier.

    Average daily solar flux was down nine points from 87.4 to 78.4.

    Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with the highest activity on
    September 17 when planetary A index was 24 due to a minor
    geomagnetic storm triggered by a weak Coronal Mass Ejection. Average
    daily planetary A index for the week increased from 7 to 9.1, and
    average middle latitude A index went from 6.9 to 8.4.

    Predicted solar flux for the next month is 90 and 92 on September
    24-25, 95 on September 26-29, 92 on September 30, 84 on October 1-5,
    82 on October 6, 80 on October 7-8, 78 on October 9-11, 75 on
    October 12-20, 80 on October 21-22, 82 on October 23-25, 84 and 82
    on October 26-27, and 84 on October 28 through November 1.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8 and 20 on September 24-26, then
    35, 20 and 12 on September 27-29, 5 on September 30 through October
    3, 8 and 12 on October 4-5, 5 on October 6-9, 12 on October 10, 5 on
    October 11-17, 8 on October 18-19, then 10, 8 and 12 on October
    20-22, 10 on October 23-24, and 5 on October 25-30, then 8 and 12
    again on October 31 through November 1.

    The northern Autumnal Equinox occurred at 1920 UTC on September 22.
    Earth is bathed in approximately equal amounts of solar radiation
    over the northern and southern hemispheres, always a good sign for
    HF propagation.

    Spaceweather.com reported on September 23 that at 0442 UTC sunspot
    group AR2871 produced a strong M3 class solar flare. A coronal mass
    ejection is headed our way, but not directly toward Earth. "A
    glancing blow might be possible on September 26-27." If so, then the
    predicted planetary A index of 35 on September 27 may turn out to be
    a lower number.

    Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 24 to October
    19, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "Geomagnetic field will be,
    quiet on: September 29, October 13, 16-18
    quiet to unsettled on: September 24, 27-28, October 1, 3-4, 7, 9, 12
    quiet to active on: September 25 (- 26), 30, October 2, 8, 10-11
    unsettled to active on: October 5 (- 6), 14-15, (19)
    Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

    "Solar wind will intensify on October (3, 8,) 11, (19).

    "Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - Contradictory indications currently reduce the accuracy of the
    forecast."

    Last week N8II sent this update from West Virginia:

    "During the period when the SFI (10.7 cm Solar Flux Index) was near
    or over 100, conditions to Europe were somewhat disappointing on
    15M; most of the time a short opening of about an hour at 1400 UTC.
    Yesterday and today, September 16-17, the SFI was only 73, but there
    is now a minor to moderate solar storm in progress at 2400 UTC.

    "As the storm was beginning there was definitely enhanced high band
    propagation to the higher latitudes. Around 1400 UTC, I easily
    worked 4S7AB, Sri Lanka on 15M CW who was peaking S7, my first QSO
    with central Asia on 15M in a long time. Also, I worked OH0V, Aland
    Islands around 1500 UTC who was about S5. Geoff, GM8OFQ in the
    Orkney Islands, north of Scotland (mainland) was easily 20 dB over
    S9 on 17M SSB about 1500 UTC on my dipole antenna. I also worked
    HB0/DL5YM and YL on 15M CW peaking S9. 7V7V portable on the beach in
    Algeria called about S5. By 1600 UTC band conditions had drastically
    declined, but EU signals were very loud again on 20M around 2000 UTC
    including OH0V on CW about 20 dB over S9."

    N0JK wrote on September 17, "In your last propagation report you
    mentioned KB0QZ working LU4HK on 10M CW. I think I know what was up.

    "I neglected to send a report of the September VHF contest
    conditions. Sunday afternoon September 12 there were reports of
    sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I worked WA8QYJ (EL96) on 50.313 MHz FT8 at
    2109z on Es. KF0M (EM17) and WQ0P (EM19) also worked Florida
    stations on 6M Es at that time. I think it is plausible KB0QZ had a
    sporadic-E link to afternoon TEP on 10 Meters. I also saw WW1L
    (FN54) spotted HC2FG at 2115z on 50.313 MHz. I suspect double hop
    Es. There was single hop 6M Es from the Gulf Coast to HC2FG."

    Here is a new forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/t0FLJLeXw6Y

    If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
    please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
    an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 16 through 22, 2021 were 0, 0, 11, 13,
    51, 50, and 76, with a mean of 28.7. 10.7 cm flux was 73.2, 73.4,
    73.7, 75, 80, 84.9, and 88.5, with a mean of 78.4. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 3, 24, 11, 3, 3, 8, and 12, with a mean of
    9.1. Middle latitude A index was 3, 19, 14, 2, 4, 6, and 11, with a
    mean of 8.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 30 09:44:16 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP39
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 30, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
    average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
    flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
    138.4.

    So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
    expect the numbers to track more closely.

    New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
    September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
    daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
    the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

    Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
    planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com
    blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
    Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
    https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN .

    The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
    warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

    "Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
    activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM."

    Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
    more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
    Letter on Thursday.

    Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
    September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
    128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
    140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
    October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
    135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
    1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
    through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
    6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
    17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
    8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
    rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
    and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
    3-10.

    Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
    expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

    "Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
    activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

    "The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
    without a computer. I will add more next time.

    "An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
    activity during the night of September 24-25.

    "Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
    Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
    activity.

    "Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
    September 30 and especially October 1!

    "http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

    Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
    I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
    into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

    Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
    from last weekend:

    https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ

    An article on solar research:

    https://bit.ly/3dPm40p

    Newsweek is at it again:

    https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e

    I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
    only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
    Coast of North America.

    You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
    Just go to the pskreporter map page at
    https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html and select the band you are
    interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

    Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
    "the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
    grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
    "Using" field select FT8.

    Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
    received, including signal levels.

    You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
    of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
    it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
    usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
    the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

    But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
    country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

    Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
    listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
    tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
    connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

    The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
    Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
    who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
    the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
    since I last saw that station's signal.

    The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
    searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
    hours.

    Have fun!

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
    96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
    146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
    a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX

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  • From ARRL Web site@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 29 12:27:23 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP39
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 29, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up for this reporting week, September 21-27.
    Eight new sunspot groups appeared, two on September 21, two more on
    September 22, two more on September 25, another on September 26 and
    another on September 27.

    The average daily sunspot number jumped from 118.4 to 170.6, while
    average daily solar flux went from 149.3 to 168.8.

    The Autumnal Equinox was last weekend in the Northern Hemisphere, so
    our Earth is bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation in both
    hemispheres.

    The average daily planetary A index went from 20.4 to 17, while
    middle latitude numbers changed from 18.1 to 13.7. Thursday had the
    strongest geomagnetic activity, and Alaska's college A index was 68,
    triggering a geomagnetic storm with aurora visible across the
    northern tier of the United States. Activity peaked around 1200-1800
    UTC, with planetary K index at 5.33.

    Regarding solar flux predictions, the next predicted peak is at 168
    on October 20-23.

    Predicted flux values are 148 on September 29-30, then 145, 143 and
    145 on October 1-3, 148 on October 4-5, 155 on October 6, 160 on
    October 7-8, 155 on October 9, 150 on October 10-11, 145 on October
    12-14, then 150, 155, 155, 160 and 165 on October 15-19, 168 on
    October 20-23, then 164, 160, 160, 168 and 150 on October 24-28,
    then 145 and 150 on October 29-30, 155 on October 31 through
    November 2, 160 on November 3-4, and 155 on November 5.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 8 on September 29 through
    October 1, then 8, 15, 12, 8 and 15, on October 2-5, then 5 on
    October 6-21, then 10 and 8 on October 22-23, and 5 on October 24
    through November 7, and 55 on November 8.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 27, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "During September we saw nearly regular fluctuations in solar and
    geomagnetic activity. M-class flares occurred nearly every day, some accompanied by plasma eruptions (CMEs). On 24-25 September, the
    fourth and strongest solar-origin proton cloud (G3) of the month
    struck Earth.

    "With such a large number of disturbances, each lasting several
    days, there was a significant decrease in MUF and a general
    deterioration of shortwave propagation (September 3-5, 13-15, 18-20
    and since 25 September).

    "After these disturbances, due to the high solar activity,
    relatively rapid improvements followed, the best of which was
    observed from 10 September onward. It culminated in a positive phase
    of disturbance during the daytime hours of UTC on 12 September, with
    the highest MUF values, and thus the best opening of the upper
    shortwave bands. This also made the following deterioration, which
    started already on the night of 13 September, even more noticeable.

    "Given the number and duration of disturbances and despite several improvements, overall propagation was below average. This pattern
    began in August and given the trend in solar activity, looks set to
    continue for the time being."

    Gregory Andracke, W2BEE sent these two articles about Aurora
    Borealis:

    https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q

    https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj

    Check out his web site:

    http://www.andracke.com/

    Here are more articles and videos about aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4

    https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy

    https://bit.ly/48ASMtK

    https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ

    https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX

    https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk

    https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V

    https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw

    https://bit.ly/469xDFw

    https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 21 through 27, 2023 were 159, 184,
    198, 172, 164, 179, and 138, with a mean of 170.6. 10.7 cm flux was
    168.1, 175.7, 173, 173.7, 170.2, 164.9, and 156, with a mean of
    168.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 10, 21, 23, 32, and
    15, with a mean of 17. Middle latitude A index was 10, 7, 9, 17, 15,
    26, and 12, with a mean of 13.7.
    NNNN
    /EX

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