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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 13 - 19 September

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 20 13:00:13 2021
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2021 Sep 20 0042 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    13 - 19 September 2021

    Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2871 (S28, L=359,
    class/area=Dao/60 on 19 Sep) produced four C-class flares throughout
    the week, the largest of which was a C3 flare observed at 17/0420
    UTC, and was the primary source of solar activity. A filament
    eruption which lifted off at around 13/0100-0200 UTC and centered
    near N35W15, produced an Earth-directed CME that arrived at Earth
    early on 17 Sep.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
    normal to moderate throughout the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels on 17 Sep, and active conditions early on 18 Sep, due
    to the arrival of the 13 Sep CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
    observed on 13 Sep, and quiet conditions were observed throughout
    the remainder of the period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    20 September - 16 October 2021

    Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
    flare activity throughout the outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 29 Sep-03 Oct and 05-08 Oct. Normal
    to moderate levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder
    of the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels on 28 Sep, with active conditions likely on 25, 29 Sep,
    and 05, 10 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
    recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled and mostly quiet conditions
    are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook
    period.

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