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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP38
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA September 17, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

On this reporting week, September 9-15, sunspot numbers started
strong at 124 but ended at 0. Average daily sunspot numbers went
from 64.6 to 58.3. Average daily solar flux declined from 92.9 to
87.4.

Geomagnetic indicators remained moderate, with last week's average
daily planetary A index unchanged at 7, and average daily middle
latitude A index changed from 7.7 to 6.9.

Predicted solar flux is much lower than last week's bulletin
reported. Solar flux is predicted at 75 on September 17-23, 76 on
September 24-26, 78, 80 and 82 on September 27-29, 86 on September
30 through October 10, 82 on October 11-12, 80 on October 13, 78 on
October 14-17, and 76 on October 18-23. Solar flux is expected to
rise to 89 by the end of October.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 17-18, 8 on September
19-20, then 5 and 8 on September 21-22, 5 on September 23 through
October 3, then 8 and 12 on October 4-5, and 5 on October 6-17, 8 on
October 18, and 5 on October 19 through the end of the month.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 17 to October
12, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: September 19, 29-30, October 9-10,
quiet to unsettled on: September 20, 28, October 1, 4, 7, 12,
quiet to active on: September 17-18, 22-23, 25-27, October 3, 8, 11,
unsettled to active on: September 21, 24, October (2,) 5-6,
Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted.

"Solar wind will intensify on October 11.

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The confusing situation mentioned two weeks ago, together
with the variable configuration of active areas and coronal
holes, was a sign of the subsequent increase in solar activity."

Marty, KB0QZ in Tulsa was tuning 10 meters at noon on Sunday,
September 12 and heard no signals, not even any propagation beacons.
He called CQ on 28.040 MHz CW and received a 599 report from LU4HK,
who was also S9. The path distance was 5,094 miles. He continued to
tune the band and call CQ through the afternoon with nothing else
heard.

Page down in this article, https://bit.ly/3Ch98XD, "Nevada County
Captures: Glorious sunrise" and page down for a great solar image in
a local California newspaper.

Go to your favorite search engine and enter this text:

mdpi: sunspot number and photon flux data

An interesting PDF is available for download.

At 2000 UTC on September 13 I (K7RA) called CQ on 15 meters with FT8
from my station in Seattle at CN87uq using a marginal end fed wire
antenna, about .72 wavelength long, partially indoors.

Typically I would see the map at pskreporter.info light up with many
stations reporting my signal. But at that time only one station,
WA1SXK in North Carolina (EM95lf) heard me, reporting -19 dB, and
this continued through many attempts.

I switched to 17 meters and saw typical reports from stations in the
Midwest and East coast, 1500-2400 miles out.

Checked for flare activity and anything else unusual, but saw
nothing. But solar flux and sunspot numbers were declining, after
reaching a high several days earlier. Perhaps the MUF for this path
at that time was below 15 meters.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for September 9 through 15, 2021 were 124, 99, 93,
47, 32, 13, and 0, with a mean of 58.3. 10.7 cm flux was 99.7, 96.3,
91.8, 87.7, 83.3, 78.1, and 75.2, with a mean of 87.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 9, 7, 6, 9, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7.
Middle latitude A index was 7, 9, 8, 6, 7, 5, and 6, with a mean of
6.9.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP38
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA September 23, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
numbers and solar flux.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
hope it may signal a trend.

But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
until Summer 2025.

Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
on September 21.

Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
122 on October 26-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
Force Base.

Are sunspots really black? A report can be found here:

https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black

Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox was today, Friday,
September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
for HF propagation.

Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

"On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

"On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
earthward CME.

"On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
- which doubled in size the next day.

"On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

"On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

"Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

"Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen. They remained at
average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html from stations in Florida.

At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
other. Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
along the same arc as the North America stations.

I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
to a very specific location.

Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather

On September 22, https://spaceweather.com reported three big
sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

Here is always a good reference:

https://solarmonitor.org/

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

The SOHO site:

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/

Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
threat:

https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 6.9.
NNNN
/EX

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XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP38
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA September 22, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0249UTC on 22
SEPTEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"Solar wind streams from a pair of coronal holes are expected to
mildly increase geomagnetic activity at times during the interval
late 22-Sep to 24-Sep.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM 22-24 SEPTEMBER 2023."

Nine new sunspot groups appeared this week, but the averages were
lower.

A new sunspot group appeared every day from September 15-17, four
more on September 18, and one each day on September 19-20.

On Thursday, the start of the next reporting week two more sunspot
groups appeared.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 138.1 to 118.4, while
average daily solar flux went from 159.9 to 149.3.

The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere occurs on Saturday,
September 23 at 2:50 AM EDT, or 0650z. The change in seasons has
been evident recently with improving propagation on 10 and 12
meters.

A fast moving CME hit Earth on September 18, sparking dramatic
displays of aurora across the northern tier of North America and in
Europe as far south as France.

Alaska's college A index was 49 and 61 on September 18-19, while the
planetary A index was 30 and 49.

Predicted solar flux is 162, 162 and 165 on September 22-24, 160 on
September 25-28, 135 on September 29-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135
on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-6, 135 on October 7-8, then 140,
145 and 145 on October 9-11, then 150, 150, 155 and 150 on October
12-15, and 155, 150, 145 and 145 on October 16-19, then 150, 150 and
145 on October 20-22, 140 on October 23-24, 135 on October 25-27,
then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 22, 22 on September
23-24, then 12 and 8 on September 25-26, 5 on September 27-28, 12
and 8 on September 29-30, 5 October 1-11, 8 on October 12, then 5 on
October 13-19, 12 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, then 8, 12 and
8 on October 25-27, then 5 on October 28 into the first week of
November.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 21, 2023 from OK1HH:

"Although the site https://solarham.net/ launched on March 15, 2006,
created and still maintained solely by Kevin,VE3EN, is primarily
intended for amateur radio users, it is also very well regarded by
professional astronomers. In addition to information about the Sun,
it contains everything needed to understand the causes of changes in
the ionosphere, and also provides an overview and forecast of the
Earth's magnetic field activity. On Thursday, September 21, we read:
'Solar activity is predicted to remain at low (C-Flares) to moderate
(M-Flares) levels during the next 24 hours. AR-3435 is considered
the most likely region to produce a moderate to strong solar flare.'

"The information can be supplemented by saying that the level of
solar activity has been rising in recent days, and this rise was
accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 400 km/s to over
600 km/s between 18-20 September. In particular, the solar wind
proton influx increased significantly on 18 September; moreover, a
geomagnetic disturbance with intensity G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong)
took place on 18-19 September.

"The Earth's ionosphere responded to these events with a significant
decrease in MUF, especially since 18 September. Shortwave conditions
were above average for the last time on 10-12 September, including a
positive phase of the disturbance on the latter day. Around the
equinox we usually expect improvement, but now it was the opposite
as a result of disturbances.

"As another very good source of information, I can particularly
recommend the Space Weather Monitor (https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm), as it also
contains the most important data on the Earth's ionosphere."

From reader David Moore, on Parker Solar Probe:

https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E

More Parker Solar Probe news:

https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for September 14 through 20, 2023 were 110, 96, 88,
94, 139, 143, and 159, with a mean of 118.4. 10.7 cm flux was
145.2, 139.1, 140.4, 144.6, 154.5, 166.1, and 155.5, with a mean of
149.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 7, 7, 16, 30, 49, and
16, with a mean of 20.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 7, 5, 14,
21, 38, and 15, with a mean of 18.1.
NNNN
/EX

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