XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 6, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

During this reporting week (July 29 through August 4) solar activity
dropped into a sharp decline.

Sunspots were gone on July 28 through August 1, so average daily
sunspot number dropped from 33.1 in last week's bulletin to 6 this
week.

Average daily solar flux went from 83 to 74.8.

Predicted solar flux is 74 and 73 on August 6 and 7, 75 on August 8
to 10, 74 on August 11 and 12, 75 on August 3 to 14, 76 on August 15
and 16, 75 and 74 on August 17 and 18, 72 on August 19 to 31, 74 on
September 1, and 75 on September 2 to 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 on August 6 to 8, then 5,
10 and 8 on August 9 to 11, 5 on August 12 to 15, then 10, 8 and 8
on August 16 to 18, 5 on August 19 to 22, then 8, 12 and 8 on August
23 to 25, 5 on August 26 to 31, then 12 and 10 on September 1 and 2,
and 5 on September 3 to 11.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 6 to 31, 2021

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on August 12 and 13, 20 and 21, 23, 28
Quiet to unsettled on August 7 to 9, 14, 19, 22, 25 to 27, 31
Quiet to active on August 6, 11, 15 to 18, 29 and 30
Unsettled to active August 10, 24
Active to disturbed Nothing predicted

Remarks:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Next Thursday, on August 12th, I will not compile a forecast of
the Earth's magnetic field activity, because I will climb the
highest mountains of my country again. But without the convenience
of civilization as a computer. F. K. Janda, OK1HH"

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"There was a 2 Meter sporadic-E opening August 4.

Ron, WZ1V (FN31) reported to me that he worked KA9CFD (EN40), K0TPP
(EM48) and W5LDA (EM15) around 2225z on FT8 via Es. He said KA9CFD
was loud.

2 Meter Es is very rare in the month of August.

The last week of July there was a strong tropospheric opening on 2
Meters from northeast Kansas. I worked as far as KE8FD (EN80) and
W3CP (EM74) on 2 Meter FT8. I had a psk flag on 2 Meters from W3IP
(FM19) over 1,500 kilometers away.

The Perseids Meteor shower is building in intensity with people now
making morning MSK144 contacts on 2 Meters. The peak is the night
of August 11 and morning August 12.

More information here:

https://www.imo.net/viewing-the-perseid-meteor-shower-in-2021/ "

Ken Brown, N4SO on Alabama's Gulf Coast reports:

"On July 30, the EISN sunspot number was 0, and July 31 just above
0.

https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot

Based on EISN, Estimated International Sunspot Number and I was
still able to log VE3TEN, KA3JOE and W2DLL in CANADA, PA and NY,
nearly a straight line to the North East.

On July 31, I was still able to log K6FRC/B at 1454 UTC. Weak but
readable 339 RST.

On August 1, at 0400 UTC, 11 PM local I had that long list starting
with N9TNY, W8EH, WA2SFT, WI4L, and K4JEE, in order EN51, EM79,
EM76, EM74, and EM78. Straight line North and Northeast."

From multiple sources:

"What follows is the text from a News Release from the High Altitude Observatory in Colorado regarding the revision of their Solar Cycle
25 Predictions. The parts about Radio Propagation and the
progression of Solar Cycle 24 are my own.

News Release - A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude
Observatory based at the University Of Colorado. NASA
Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle
25. The report generated by Ricky Egeland a Solar Physicist working
in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of
Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 +/- 17 based upon the
new scale for calculating Smoothed Sunspot Number. For reference
Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solar Cycle 23
peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale).

If this prediction holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide F
Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6
Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and
after Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar
Routes. 6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience
consistent openings +/- 9 months from Solar Max."

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for July 29 through August 4, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0,
13, 15, and 14, with a mean of 6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.8, 75.5,
75.9, 74.9, 74.6, 75.9, and 70.8, with a mean of 74.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 8, 6, 6, 4, 17, 10, and 5, with a mean of
8. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 6, 4, 13, 15, and 5, with a
mean of 8.7.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 12, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average
planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude
numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at
116 on September 2 to 4. The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday
evening was improved from Wednesday.

A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle
progress. A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average
solar flux was just 74.8. Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9
during the past week.

Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15
to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102,
100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30,
then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to
4, 112 on September 5 to 7. 110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on
September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to
16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16
then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on
August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to
7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on
September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

OK1HH commented:

"A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly.
And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located
(or selected from several locations). Moreover, lasting five days.
All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7
(Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement). STEVE is a recent
discovery. It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE

It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the
ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved. The development
continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase
on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the
following days. With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose
activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches
maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August). They are also called the
'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

NASA expects increasing activity:

https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5

Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics
Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Yet another cycle prediction method:

https://bit.ly/3SKm29J

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground
effects:

https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87,
63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2,
116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with
a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15,
and 10, with a mean of 12.1.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XPost: rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA August 11, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

Two new sunspot groups appeared on August 3, three more on August 7,
and another on August 9.

But solar activity was lower over our reporting week, August 3-9,
with average daily sunspot number dropping from 154.3 to 108.9 and
average solar flux from 173 to 166.4.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.3 to 12.3 and average
middle latitude A index from 9.3 to 10.1.

The middle latitude A index numbers on August 3-4 were not
available, and are my estimates, tracking with the planetary A index
and the remaining five middle latitude readings in the rest of the
week.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on August 11-12, then 145, 140 and 130
on August 13-15, 135 on August 16-17, 162 on August 18, 164 on
August 19-20, 168 on August 21-23, then 172, 172 and 170 on August
24-26, 172, 172 and 174 on August 27-29, then 172, 172 and 170 on
August 30 through September 1, then 168, 168, 166 and 164 on
September 2-5, then 162, 162, 164 and 164 on September 6-9, then
162, 162 and 160 on September 10-12, 162 on September 13-14, 164 on
September 15-16, and 168 on September 17-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 11 13, then 8, 12, 12 and
10 on August 14-17, 5 on August 18-25, 12 on August 26, then 5 on
August 27 through September 4, 12 on September 5, and 5 on September
6-21.

On August 9 Spaceweather.com wrote about a geomagnetic storm in 1940
that sounds similar to the infamous Carrington Event. Two CMEs hit
Earth 109 minutes apart. Here is a recent scientific paper on the
event: https://bit.ly/3s1VrMh .

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere August 11-17, 2023 from OK1HH.

Sometimes you need to take a break and that's why this time the
commentary covers the last two weeks instead of one. During these
weeks, solar activity was often elevated.

M and X class flares and CMEs occurred frequently. The Earth was
lucky not to be hit by the fiery loop that ejected from the Sun from
AR3372 during the M4-class eruption on October 28 at 1558 UTC.
Energetic protons from the Sun were hitting Earth's atmosphere for a significant part of the period (a "radiation storm" - class S1). The
source this time was beyond the northwestern edge of the solar disk
and was most likely an X-class flare. The consequence was also
absorption in the polar cap (PCA).

On August 1, the CME was very likely to hit the Earth's magnetic
field, but instead we only registered a hint of a near-Earth flyby
around 1600 UTC. We expected another CME arrival and a smaller G1
class geomagnetic storm on August 4-5. It happened, and the magnetic
filament connecting the two sunspots exploded on August 5 around
0500 UTC, hurling the CME into space.

An X1.6 class eruption was observed in AR3386 on August 5 at 2221
UTC. The CME did not head directly toward Earth, so there were fewer disturbances than expected with the current solar activity. But the
opposite was true for shortwave propagation conditions - they were
mostly worse.

The proton flux higher than 10 MeV began to rise at 2146 UTC on
August 7 and exceeded the 10 MeV warning threshold at 0110 UTC. This
proton event followed the X1.5 eruption observed on August 7 with a
peak at 2046 UTC. Thereafter, the proton flux above 10 MeV started
to slowly decrease and remained close to the threshold.

F. K. Janda OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/

In the past, I've noted odd 10 meter propagation observed with
pskreporter.info using FT8 in which my signals (from Seattle) were
only received in Florida, about 2300 to 2700 miles away.

On Thursday, August 10 at 2200 UTC on 12 meters FT8 the only reports
from North America I saw were in Florida, 2500-2700 miles away, plus
NH6V in Hawaii, and VK5HW and VK4TUX in Australia at 8367 and 7402
miles. I have no idea what causes this seemingly restricted
propagation. The antenna at my end was an end fed 32 foot wire,
about .85 wavelength, partially indoors.

Solar mysteries. https://bit.ly/3qpuhhW

Flares: https://bit.ly/3KXlUl1 https://bit.ly/3qj0pE6

https://bit.ly/3QPYPV9 https://bit.ly/45naVsF https://bit.ly/3OQPzhL

https://bit.ly/3OvB3uz https://bit.ly/47kgZ70

Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/Olfjss8GmSI

You can always catch the latest video from Dr. Skov on Youtube at:

https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov

This weekend is the Worked All Europe DX Contest:

https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at
http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for August 3 through 9, 2023 were 124, 122, 100, 97,
101, 115, and 103, with a mean of 108.9. 10.7 cm flux was 162.9,
170.8, 175.8, 173.5, 169.7, 158.9, and 153.4, with a mean of 166.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 13, 36, 4, 12, 8, and 7, with
a mean of 12.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 24, 4, 11, 7,
and 8, with a mean of 10.1.
NNNN
/EX

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)