• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 03 - 09 June 2024

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 10 13:00:14 2024
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    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Jun 10 0134 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    03 - 09 June 2024

    Solar activity ranged from moderate to high levels. Region 3697
    (S18, L=350, class/area=Fkc/350 on 03 Jun) was the most active
    sunspot region this period and produced 14 (R1) Minor events and two
    R2 (Moderate) events; the largest of which was a long-duration
    M9.7/1f flare at 08/0149 UTC. Following the M9.7 flare, a SEP event
    commenced and a partial halo, Earth-directed CME was produced.
    Region 3697 also produced an M6.1/2b flare at 06/1506 UTC. Regions
    3695 (N27, L=030, class/area=Cao/50 on 03 Jun), 3703 (S08, L=327, class/area=Dac/200 on 07 Jun), and 3709 (S10, L=218,
    class/area=Cai/140 on 09 Jun) each produced a single R1 event.

    Solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 08-09 Jun,
    following the long-duration M9.7 flare at 08/0149 UTC from Region
    3697. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux exceeded 1 pfu beginning
    at 08/0225 UTC, reached a peak flux of 8 pfu at 08/0625 UTC, and
    decreased below the 1 pfu threshold at 08/1455 UTC. The greater than
    10 MeV proton flux exceeded the S1 (Minor) event threshold beginning
    at 08/0255 UTC, reached a peak flux of 1,030 pfu at 08/0800 UTC
    (S3/Strong), and decreased below S1 levels at 09/2125 UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03 Jun
    due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and unsettled
    levels were observed on 04-06 Jun. G2 (Moderate) storm levels were
    observed on 07 Jun, and active levels were observed on 08 Jun, due
    to CME activity. Quiet conditions prevailed on 09 Jun.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    10 June - 06 July 2024

    Solar activity is expected to reach moderate and high levels
    throughout the period. M-class flare activity is likely-to-expected
    with a varying chance for X-class flares.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
    significant flare activity.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-G2
    (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 10 Jun, and G1 levels on 11 Jun,
    due to the anticipated arrival of the 08 Jun CME. Quiet and quiet to
    unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
    the outlook period.

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