• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 26 February - 03 M

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 4 13:00:08 2024
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    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Mar 04 0255 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    26 February - 03 March 2024

    Solar activity reached moderate levels on 28 Feb as Region 3590
    (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) produced a long-duration
    M1.5 (R1-Minor) flare at 28/1854 UTC. A subsequent CME associated
    with the flare was analyzed and the model results suggested the
    ejecta was off the Sun-Earth line. A filament eruption, centered
    near S11E30, was observed starting around 28/0900 UTC. It produced
    Type II radio sweep along with a C5.1/Sf flare at 28/0909 UTC. A
    subsequent CME signature in SOHO/LASCO C2. Analysis and modeling of
    the event suggested arrival late on 03 Mar. The remaining 11 active
    regions on the visible disk were either quiet or produced only
    C-class X-ray activity.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
    geomagnetic storm levels. A period of sustained southward Bz, which
    reached -7 nT, was observed for a few hours on late on 26 Feb and
    into 27 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated period
    of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. As the solar wind returned
    to nominal conditions, quiet to unsettled levels followed through 02
    Mar. The arrival of a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 28
    Feb was observed just before midday on 03 Mar. Total magnetic field
    strength increased to a peak of 19 nT and the Bz component was
    oriented far southward (down to -18 nT). Solar wind speeds remained
    relatively low with speeds averaging near 350 km/s. The geomagetic
    field response reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels during
    the 03/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    04 March - 30 March 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
    R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts throughout the outlook
    period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
    levels. Active levels are expected on 04 Mar in response to waning
    influence from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Feb. Unsettled
    conditions are likely on 10-11 Mar and 28 Mar due to multiple,
    recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to
    be mostly quiet.

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