• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 05 - 11 February 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 12 13:00:10 2024
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    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Feb 12 0224 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    05 - 11 February 2024

    Solar activity ranged from moderate levels to very high levels this
    period. In total, one X-class flare and 18 M-class flares and were
    observed. The largest event was an X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC from
    Region 3575 (S36, L=177, class/area=Dkc/270 on 05 Feb), which was
    beyond the SW limb at the time of the event. Region 3576 (S16,
    L=057, class/area=Fkc/740 on 11 Feb) was the largest and most active
    region this week and produced the bulk of the M-class flare
    activity; most notable was an M9.0 flare at 10/2307 UTC which
    produced an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive late on 12
    Feb/early on 13 Feb. Other notable activity included a filament
    eruption centered near S37W02 at 08/2000 UTC which resulted in an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive on 12 Feb.

    The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate)
    levels following the X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC. The solar radiation
    storm began at 09/1530 UTC, reached a peak flux of 187 pfu at
    09/2355 UTC, and decreased below event threshold at 11/1805 UTC. The
    greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted just below event
    thresholds after 11/1805 UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate
    levels throughout the week.

    Geomagnetic field activity was quiet and unsettled on 05-06 Feb due
    to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS influences and the
    arrival of a CME from 01 Feb. Quiet conditions were observed over
    07-08 Feb. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 09 Feb with
    the arrival of a CME from 06 Feb late in the day. Quiet conditions
    were observed on 10 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed on
    11 Feb due to the arrival of a shock associated with the 09/1314 UTC
    X3.3 flare. The interplanetary shock was observed in solar wind data
    at 11/0121 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 350
    km/s to 439 km/s, eventually reaching 634 km/s by 11/1410 UTC. Total
    field increased from 4 nT to 19 nT initially, while the Bz component
    indicated a mostly negative trend to a low of -15 nT. A geomagnetic
    sudden impulse was observed at Earth with a 40 nT deviation (Boulder Magnetometer) at 11/0211 UTC.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    12 February - 09 March 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the
    period with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
    significant flare activity.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 15-17 Feb, with normal to moderate
    levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
    levels on 12-14 Feb, and G2 (Moderate) levels on 13 Feb, due to the
    anticipated arrival of CMEs from 08 and 10 Feb. Quiet and unsettled
    conditions are expected on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels are expected throughout the remainder of
    the period.

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