• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 8 13:00:22 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Jan 08 0220 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    01 - 07 January 2024

    Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate activity
    (R1/Minor) was observed from Region 3536 (N06, L=151, class/area
    Eko/250 on 03 Jan) on 01, 02 and 04 Jan. The largest of these M
    flares was an M4.7 observed at 01/1225 UTC. This region also
    produced a total of 35 C-class flares. Region 3538 (N21, L=175,
    class/area Dai/070 on 05 Jan) produced a total of 17 C-class flares,
    the largest a C7.1/1n at 06/1527 UTC. C-class activity was also
    produced by Regions 3534 (S13, L=225, class/area Dao/150 on 30 Dec),
    3535 (S05, L=285, class/area Bxo/010 on 28 Dec), 3537 (N18, L=153,
    class/area Dsi/120 on 05 Jan) and 3540 (S18, L=095, class/area
    Dki/350 on 06 Jan).

    Numerous CME signatures were detected during the period, but none
    were determined to have an Earth-directed component.

    The 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit was above threshold
    during this period. The event began at 03/2005 UTC, reached a
    maximum of 20 pfu at 04/0835 UTC and ended at 04/2215 UTC. This
    event was related to the X-5 event observed from Region 3536 on 31
    Dec 2023.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    low to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to isolated active
    levels on 01-03 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and
    weak CME influence the last half of 03 Jan. Mostly quiet levels were
    observed on 04-07 Jan. The solar wind field was at slightly enhanced
    levels on 01-03 Jan. During this period, total field readings peaked
    at 12 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-11 nT and wind speeds
    reached maximum speeds of near 500 km/s. From 04-07 Jan, wind
    parameters were at mostly background levels. The phi orientation was
    in a mostly negative orientation through about 07/1800 UTC when the
    field oriented into a mostly positive direction.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    08 January - 03 February 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class
    (R3/Strong) flares from 08-24 Jan, 26-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb. Low
    activity is expected on 25 Jan.

    A slight chance for proton events exists at geosynchronous orbit
    through the period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-12 Jan. Low to
    moderate levels are expected on 08 Jan, 13-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled periods on
    08-09 Jan and 28-30 Jan due to geoeffective CH HSS flow. The
    remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

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