• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 06 - 12 November 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 13 13:00:12 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Nov 13 0622 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    06 - 12 November 2023

    Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were
    observed on 06-10 Nov and again on 12 Nov. Moderate levels
    (R1/Minor) were observed on 11 Nov due to an isolated M1.2/Sf flare
    at 11/1729 UTC from Region 3477 (S15, L=227, class/area Cko/350 on
    05 Nov). Other activity included an eruption centered near S15W15
    around 09/1115 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in
    SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/1148 UTC as an asymmetric halo.
    Modelling of the CME had an arrival around 11/2000 UTC. Another CME
    was associated with an eruption near Region 3484 (S15, L=215,
    class/area Cai/080 on 12 Nov) occurring at 10/1900 UTC. The
    associated CME was observed off the WSW limb beginning at 10/2000
    UTC. Modelling of the CME suggested a possible grazing influence
    late on 15 Nov.

    A minor enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
    observed beginning at 09/1630 UTC, likely associated with the
    aforementioned eruption a 09/1115 UTC. The flux reached a peak of
    2.73 pfu at 10/0015 UTC before returning to background levels late
    on 11 Nov.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels on 06 Nov and reached high levels on 07-12
    Nov in response to CME and coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
    influences. A peak flux of 4,370 pfu was observed at 11/1710 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm
    levels. The period began under the influence of a combination of CME
    activity from 03 Nov and a negative polarity CH HSS. Early on 06
    Nov, total field was in the 17-20 nT range but slowly dissipated.
    Total field decayed to 5 nT by early on 07 Nov where a fluctuation
    in the Bz component was observed, indicating a transition into the
    HSS. Solar wind speed continued to increase to 720-740 km/s by 08
    Nov before slowly returning to values near 440 km/s by early on 12
    Nov. Some discrepancies were observed in DSCOVR solar wind data,
    likely due to low densities. At 12/0531 UTC a small shock was
    observed in solar wind data marking the arrival of the 09 Nov halo
    CME. Total field increased initially from 2 nT to 5 nT with a solar
    wind speed increase from 465 km/s to 524 km/s. Total field continued
    to increase to 11 nT by late on 12 Nov along with a rotation to a
    southward Bz component occurring after 12/2205 UTC. Solar wind speed
    reached a maximum of 600 km/s at 12/0729 UTC before steadily
    descending to end-of-period values near 420 km/s. The geomagnetic
    field responded with unsettled to G2 storm levels on 06 Nov and
    quiet to G1 (Minor) storming on 07 Nov. Quiet to active levels were
    observed on 08, 10, and 12 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels were
    observed on 09 Nov and quiet conditions prevailed on 11 Nov.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    13 November - 09 December 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
    chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 13-15 Nov and
    again on 19 Nov-09 Dec.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 13-17 Nov due to a combination of
    CME and CH HSS influence. High levels are expected again on 25
    Nov-09 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to G1
    (Minor) levels on 13 Nov due to persistent CME activity. Quiet to
    unsettled levels are expected on 14-16 Nov due to a combination of
    positive polarity CH HSS activity and a potential grazing from the
    10 Nov CME late on 15 Nov. Unsettled to active periods are also
    expected on 22-28 Nov and 04-07 Dec, with G1 storming likely on 22
    Nov, 24-25 Nov, and 05 Dec, due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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