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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 16 - 22 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 23 13:00:12 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Oct 23 0151 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    16 - 22 October 2023

    Solar activity was at low levels on 16-17 and 19-21 Oct with C-class
    flare activity observed. Very low levels were observed on 18 and 22
    Oct with only B-class flares registered. Three CMEs were identified
    to be likely glancing-blow arrivals this period. The first CME
    resulted from a C7.5 flare at 16/1051 UTC from Region 3467 (N13,
    L=106, class/area=Axx/10 on 16 Oct), with the CME first visible in
    LASCO C2 imagery off the ENE at 16/1148 UTC. Model analysis
    indicated a glancing blow arrival on 19 Oct. The second CME of note
    was associated with a C2.2 flare at 17/0505 UTC from Region 3463
    (S18, L=179, class/area=Axx/10 on 16 Oct), with the CME first
    visible in C2 data at 17/0548 UTC off the SW. The second CME was
    analyzed as a glancing-blow likely to arrive on 20 Oct. The final
    CME was associated with an episode of EUV dimming just north of
    Region 3468 (S11, L=079, class/area=Hax/130 on 17 Oct) at 18/0545
    UTC, with the CME first visible in C2 off the SE at 18/0612 UTC.
    This third CME was modeled as a likely glancing-blow arrival on 21
    Oct. Clear CME influences were observed over 20-22 Oct, though
    individual CME arrival timing was impossible to discern in the solar
    wind data.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period.

    Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels on 16-17
    Oct. Positive polarity CH HSS influences produced quiet to unsettled
    levels on 18 Oct, and quiet to active levels on 19 Oct. One or more
    of the above-mentioned CMEs were detected in the solar wind data
    over 20-22 Oct, resulting in quiet and unsettled levels on 20 Oct,
    quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21 Oct, and quiet to unsettled
    levels on 22 Oct.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    23 October - 18 November 2023

    Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low levels
    throughout the period with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
    events over 24 Oct-11 Nov.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 28 Oct-02 Nov, with normal to
    moderate levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 27
    Oct, 01 and 09 Nov in response to recurrent CH HSS features. Quiet
    and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist throughout the
    remainder of the period.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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