• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 09 - 15 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 16 13:00:11 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Oct 16 1503 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    09 - 15 October 2023

    Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 3452 (N07,
    L=301, class/area=Eac/240 on 04 Oct) produced an M2.3/Sf flare (R1 -
    Minor) at 10/1217 UTC, the strongest of the period. Region 3451
    (N17, L=304, class/area=Eki/270 on 10 Oct) also produced an M1.6 at
    10/0209 UTC and an M1.1 at 12/0458 UTC. Both regions were near the W
    limb when they produced moderate activity. The other 16 numbered
    active regions were either quiet or only produced C-class flare

    Other activity included a Type II radio sweep at 09/0449 UTC from an
    eruptive event on the E limb. Additionally, three CMEs were observed
    on 14 Oct from a filament channel eruption around 14/0300 UTC from
    the NW quadrant, near Region 3466 (N09, L=212, class/area Cao/beta)
    around 14/1300 UTC, and another filament channel in the SW quadrant
    around 14/1600 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the events suggested
    the ejecta would pass close, but not on, the Sun-Earth line.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels during the summary period.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A CIR
    ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS was observed on 13 Oct, which
    increased geomagnetic activity to active levels. Total magnetic
    field strength climbed to 24 nT while the Bz component briefly
    reached -15 nT, but was mostly oriented neutral or northward. Solar
    wind speeds reached a peak of ~540 km/s. The decline in solar wind
    parameters on 14 Oct caused a decrease to quiet to unsettled
    activity. A single period of unsettled was also observed on 09 Oct
    due to some sustained southward Bz (-6 nT). The remainder of the
    summary period was at quiet levels.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    16 October - 11 November 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance
    for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 18-21 Oct, 28 Oct - 02 Nov, and 11
    Nov due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook
    period is like to reach moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
    17-18 Oct, 01 Nov, and 09 Nov and unsettled levels on 19-20 Oct,
    27-31 Oct, and 10 Nov due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
    recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder
    of the outlook period.

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