XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Oct 16 1503 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 October 2023
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 3452 (N07,
L=301, class/area=Eac/240 on 04 Oct) produced an M2.3/Sf flare (R1 -
Minor) at 10/1217 UTC, the strongest of the period. Region 3451
(N17, L=304, class/area=Eki/270 on 10 Oct) also produced an M1.6 at
10/0209 UTC and an M1.1 at 12/0458 UTC. Both regions were near the W
limb when they produced moderate activity. The other 16 numbered
active regions were either quiet or only produced C-class flare
activity.
Other activity included a Type II radio sweep at 09/0449 UTC from an
eruptive event on the E limb. Additionally, three CMEs were observed
on 14 Oct from a filament channel eruption around 14/0300 UTC from
the NW quadrant, near Region 3466 (N09, L=212, class/area Cao/beta)
around 14/1300 UTC, and another filament channel in the SW quadrant
around 14/1600 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the events suggested
the ejecta would pass close, but not on, the Sun-Earth line.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. A CIR
ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS was observed on 13 Oct, which
increased geomagnetic activity to active levels. Total magnetic
field strength climbed to 24 nT while the Bz component briefly
reached -15 nT, but was mostly oriented neutral or northward. Solar
wind speeds reached a peak of ~540 km/s. The decline in solar wind
parameters on 14 Oct caused a decrease to quiet to unsettled
activity. A single period of unsettled was also observed on 09 Oct
due to some sustained southward Bz (-6 nT). The remainder of the
summary period was at quiet levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 October - 11 November 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance
for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 18-21 Oct, 28 Oct - 02 Nov, and 11
Nov due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook
period is like to reach moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
17-18 Oct, 01 Nov, and 09 Nov and unsettled levels on 19-20 Oct,
27-31 Oct, and 10 Nov due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder
of the outlook period.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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