• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 02 - 08 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 9 13:00:10 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Oct 09 0143 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 - 08 October 2023

    Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were
    observed on 02 Oct due to an M1.9/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 02/1249 UTC
    from Region 3455 (N25, L=274, class/area=Cro/020 on 02 Oct, the
    strongest of the period. Moderate levels were again observed on 07
    Oct due to an M1.7/Sb flare at 07/1806 UTC from Region 3406 (S10,
    L=232, class/area=Dai/080 on 08 Oct). Associated with the event was
    Type II radio sweep and a narrow, faint CME that was headed east of
    the Sun-Earth line. The remaining 15 numbered active regions were
    either quiet to only produced C-class (below R1-Minor) activity.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 03 Oct and was moderate for the remainder of the
    reporting period.

    Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled levels on 02
    Oct-04 Oct. An increase to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels was
    observed on 05 Oct due to southward Bz (-8 nT) during elevated solar
    wind speeds (~450 km/s) from a positive polarity CH HSS. Geomagnetic
    conditions decreased to quiet to unsettled levels over the following
    three days.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    09 October - 04 November 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate
    conditions through the outlook period due to the flare potential
    from active regions currently on the visible disk and regions that
    have produced moderate activity that expected to return from the
    Sun's farside.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at moderate levels over 09-13 Oct. Influence from a
    negative polarity CH HSS is likely to increase electron flux to high
    levels over 14-18 Oct. A return to moderate levels is likely for the
    remainder of the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
    levels. Active levels are likely on 13-14 Oct and 31 Oct. Unsettled
    levels are likely on 10-12 Oct, 15 Oct, and 01 Nov. All increases in geomagnetic activity is anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH
    HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at quiet
    levels.

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