• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 25 September - 01

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 2 13:00:11 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Oct 02 0206 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    25 September - 01 October 2023

    Solar activity was at low levels over 25-27 and 29 Sep with only
    C-class flare activity observed. Moderate activity levels were
    observed on 28, 30 Sep, and 01 Oct due to R1 (Minor) events from
    regions that emerged in the eastern hemisphere during the latter
    half of the week. Region 3450 (S19, L=329, class/area=Eai/180 on 01
    Oct) produced an M1.2/Sf flare at 28/0907 UTC. Region 3451 (N14,
    L=300, class/area=Dai/80 on 30 Sep) produced an M1.2 flare at
    30/1635 UTC. Region 3452 (N11, L=300, class/area=Dai/120 on 01 Oct)
    produced an M2.5 flare at 01/0132 UTC. CMEs associated with the
    above-mentioned M-flare activity were all determined to be misses
    directed east of the Sun-Earth line. A CME associated with a C9.9
    flare at 25/0813 UTC from Region 3445 (S14, L=075,
    class/area=Dai/220 on 25 Sep) resulted in a glancing blow arrival on
    29 Sep. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 27-30 Sep, with moderate levels observed throughout
    the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25-26
    Sep, and active levels on 27 Sep, due to effects associated with the
    passage of CMEs from 22 Sep as well as likely negative polarity CH
    HSS influences. Quiet and unsettled conditions were observed on 28
    Sep. Active conditions were observed on 29 Sep in response to the
    arrival of a CME from 25 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
    observed on 30 Sep, with quiet to active conditions observed on 01
    Oct, due to prolonged periods of southward magnetic field.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 October - 28 October 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare
    activity throughout the period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 03-07 Oct, with normal to moderate
    levels expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
    02-03, and 05 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet
    and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist throughout the
    remainder of the period.

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