• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 14 - 20 August 202

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 21 13:00:12 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Aug 21 0150 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 - 20 August 2023

    Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares. The
    largest of these C-class flares was a C8.9 that occurred on 15 Aug
    at 2110 UTC from Region 3405 (N10, L=181, Dso/Beta as on 16 Aug).
    Other notable activity included a type II radio sweep on 20 Aug at
    0626 UTC with an estimated speed of 488 Km/s. This event was
    associated with a C3.7/SF flare at 20/0626 UTC from Region 3409
    (N22, L=252, Bxo/Beta on 21 Aug).

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit, as
    measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached high levels on 14 Aug
    with a peak flux of 1,250 pfu observed at 1330 UTC. Normal to
    moderate levels were observed 15-20 Aug.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels 14-15 and 17-18 Aug.
    Unsettled levels were reached on 16 Aug likely in response to weak
    transient influence coupled with a CIR. Unsettled levels were
    reached again 19-20 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    21 August - 16 September 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
    M-class flare acitivity through the outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at normal to moderate levels 21 Aug - 06 Sep and
    11-16 Sep. High levels are expected 07-10 Sep in response to
    recurrent CH HSS influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet 26 Aug - 05 Sep
    and 09-13 Sep. Unsettled levels are expected 21-25 Aug, 06-08 Sep
    and 15-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Active conditions are
    expected 14 Sep due to a recurrent CIR ahead of CH HSS onset.

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