• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 17 - 23 July 2023

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 24 13:00:10 2023
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    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Jul 24 0213 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    17 - 23 July 2023

    Solar activity reached high levels on 18 Jul due to an M5 flare
    (R2-Moderate) at 18/0006 UTC from Region 3363 (S22, L=345,
    class/area=Dko/700 on 17 Jul); the largest event of the period. In
    addition to the M5 flare on 18 Jul, five R1-Minor events were
    registered. Minor levels of solar activity were observed on 17, 19
    and 22 Jul with R1-Minor events observed from Regions 3363, 3372
    (N23, L=270, class/area=Fho/700 on 17 Jul), and 3373 (N08, L=248, class/area=Ekc/550 on 21 Jul). Low levels were observed on 20-21 and
    23 Jul.

    Following the long-duration M5 flare at 18/0006 UTC from Region
    3363, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux increased sharply and
    exceeded 10 pfu (S1-Minor) at 18/0115 UTC. S2 (Moderate) storm
    levels were reached beginning at 18/0200 UTC, and a peak of 620 pfu
    was observed at 18/0615 UTC. The 10 MeV proton flux levels gradually
    decreased, but persisted above the S1 (Minor) threshold on 19 Jul,
    and decreased below event threshold at 20/0610 UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 19-20 Jul, with normal to moderate levels observed
    throughout the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels late 17
    Jul through early 18 Jul due to the passage of a CME that began on
    16 Jul. Active levels were observed on 20 Jul following the passage
    of a CME from 17 Jul, and again on 21 Jul due to the passage of a
    CME from 18 Jul. Quiet or quiet and unsettled conditions were
    observed throughout the remainder of the week.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    24 July - 19 August 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare
    activity throughout the outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
    significant flare activity.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 31 Jul-02 Aug, with normal to
    moderate levels expected to persist throughout the remainder of the
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 24
    Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS influences, and again on 27-28
    Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 22 Jul and positive
    CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected
    to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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