• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19 - 25 June 2023

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 26 13:00:16 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0339 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    19 - 25 June 2023

    Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were
    observed on 23 and 25 Jun. Moderate levels were observed on 19,
    21-22, and 24 Jun whereas high levels were observed on 20 Jun.
    Region 3341 (S16, L=207, class/area Cso/200 on 23 Jun) was
    responsible for the majority of the M-class activity along with an
    X1.1 Tenflare (480 sfu at 2695 MHz) at 20/1709 UTC which had
    associated Type II (1057 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a
    CME off the Eastern limb at 20/1712 UTC. WSA/ENLIL analysis
    indicated the potential for a grazing blow late on 23 Jun to early
    on 24 Jun. Region 3341 produced a total of four M1 flares and one X1
    flare. Regions 3337 (N20, L=262, class/area Cso/120 on 21 Jun), 3340
    (N23, L=233, class/area Ekc/300 on 25 Jun), and 3342 (S22, L=343,
    class/area Dao/070 on 20 Jun) also contributed to M-class flare
    activity. Region 3340 produced an M4 at 22/2344 UTC with associated
    Type II (534 km/s) and IV radio sweeps along with an associated CME
    off the SE limb at 23/0414 UTC. The CME was determined to not have
    an Earth-directed component. Region 3340 developed a Beta-Delta
    magnetic configuration on 25 Jun as moderate growth and
    consolidation was observed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 19-20 and 22-24 Jun due to CH HSS influence. The peak
    flux was 2,550 pfu observed at 22/1540 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
    levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 19-23 Jun as
    solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced between 390-485
    km/s and total field ranged from 5-8 nT. On 24-25 Jun, solar wind
    parameters became enhanced, possibly due to the aforementioned CME
    from the X1 flare. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT while solar wind
    speed values increased to near 535 km/s. The geomagnetic field
    responded with active to G1 (Minor) storming late on 24 Jun through
    early on 25 Jun.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    26 June - 22 July 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 26
    Jun-22 Jul.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 14-21 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled or active
    levels on 26 Jun-03 Jul, 8-9 Jul, and 12-22 Jul with G1 (Minor)
    storm levels likely on 12 Jul and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 13
    Jul due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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