• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 27 March - 02 Apri

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Apr 3 13:00:11 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Apr 03 0156 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    27 March - 02 April 2023

    Solar activity reached high levels due to significant flaring from
    Region 3256 (S22, L=001, class/area, Fho/340 on 28 Mar). Region 3256
    produced: an X1.2 flare (R3-Strong) at 29/0233 UTC; an M5.4/1f flare (R2-Moderate) at 30/0737 UTC; an M1.2/1f flare (R1-Minor) at 29/1407
    UTC; and an M1.1/1n flare (R1-Minor) at 29/2347 UTC. Region 3257
    (S27, L=350, class/area, Hax/190 on 23 Mar) produced a C9.7/1f flare
    at 31/2057 UTC. Region 3270 (S23, L=237, class/area, Dao/80 on 02
    Apr) provided several low level C-class flares late in the highlight
    period after its rapid development on 02 Apr.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, the
    greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly elevated following
    the M5.4/1f flare from Region 3256 mentioned above. A peak value of
    0.61 pfu was observed at the GOES-16 spacecraft at 30/1015 UTC,
    remaining well below the 10 pfu alert threshhold (S1-Minor).

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels throughout the reporting period (27 Mar - 02 Apr).

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
    levels on 31 Mar, with active levels on 30 Mar and 01-02 Apr, due to
    recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled
    geomagnetic conditions were reported throughout the remainder of the
    reporting period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    03 April - 29 April 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance
    for C-class flare activity, until the return of Region 3256 on 12
    Apr. Region 3256 was responsible for X-class and M-class flare
    activity (R1-R3) on its previous transit across the visible solar
    disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 03-06 and 23-29 Apr. Moderate
    levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-Minor storm
    levels on 20 and 27 Apr, active levels on 05, 10-11, 16, 18, 21, 26,
    28-29 Apr due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to
    unsettled conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the
    outlook period.

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