• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 26 December - 01 J

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 2 13:00:12 2023
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Jan 02 0220 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    26 December - 01 January 2023

    Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were
    observed on 27 Dec, 29 Dec, and 30 Dec. The largest flare was an
    M3/2n (R1-Minor) from Region 3176 (N20, L=008, class/area=Eko/430 on
    31 Dec). Other significant regions that produced low-level M-flare
    activity were Region 3169 (N22, L=117, class/area=Fkc/490 on 27 Dec)
    and Region 3180 (N19, L=309, class/area=Dso/220 on 01 Jan).
    Associated with flare M-flare activity on 30 Dec from Region 3176
    was an EIT wave, visible in SUVI 195 imagery around 30/1528 UTC, and
    a CME signature in subsequent STEREO-A COR2 coronagraph imagery
    around 30/1653 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested
    onset on 04 Jan. No other CMEs were determined to be Earth-directed
    from available coronagraph imagery. The other remaining 11 numbered
    active regions observed during the reporting were either quiet or
    only produced C-class activity.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels from 26 Dec - 01 Jan. The highest flux observed was
    3,680 pfu at 30/1510 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
    geomagnetic storm levels. The arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
    24 Dec combined with positive polarity CH HSS influence caused G1
    conditions on 26-27 Dec. Solar wind speeds during that time ranged
    between 500-600 km/s. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on
    28 Dec and through most of 29 Dec. At the end of 29 Dec, a CIR ahead
    of another positive polarity CH HSS cause conditions to against
    increase to G1 conditions on 30 Dec. Under the influence of the
    coronal hole, wind speeds increased to between 500-600 km/s through
    the remainder of the reporting period. As total magnetic field
    strength dropped from a peak of 12 nT on 30 Dec to between 4-7 nt
    over 31 Dec - 01 Jan, geomagnetic conditions responded with quiet to
    active conditions.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 January - 28 January 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
    M-class flares, through the outlook period due to multiple M-class
    flare (R1-Minor) producing regions both on the visible disk and
    regions on the farside that are due to rotate back onto the disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 02-03 Jan, 05-09 Jan, and 20-28
    Jan. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal
    to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
    (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are likely on
    04-05 Jan due to combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on 30
    Dec and coronal hole effects. G1 conditions are again likely on
    19-20 Jan and 26 Jan due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Active
    conditions are likely on 02 Jan, 06 Jan, 18 Jan, and 27 Jan;
    unsettled conditions are likely on 07 Jan, 14 Jan, 17 Jan, 21 Jan,
    25 Jan, and 28 Jan. All active and unsettled conditions are in
    response to anticipated effects from multiple, recurrent coronal
    holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly
    quiet levels.

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