• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 14 - 20 November 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 21 13:00:10 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Nov 21 0654 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 - 20 November 2022

    Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were
    observed on 15 and 19 Nov. On 15 Nov, Region 3140 (N25, L= 326,
    class/area Ekc/550 on 14 Nov) produced an M1/1n at 15/0251 UTC. On
    19 Nov, Region 3150 (N22, L=253, class/area Dso/140 on 19 Nov)
    produced an M1 flare at 19/1256 UTC along with associated Type II
    (930 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a non-Earth-directed CME
    observed beginning at 19/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Other
    activity included a slow, narrow CME from a filament eruption
    centered near S32W36 around 16/1100 UTC with a subsequent CME off
    the SW limb at 16/1408 UTC in C2 imagery. Another filament eruption
    occurred beginning at 19/0724 UTC centered near N45E35 and created a
    CME off the NNW limb at 19/0948 UTC in C2 imagery. Modelling of both
    CMEs indicated a possible glancing blow on 21 and 22 Nov,

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.
    Solar wind parameters were in decline from 14-15 Nov under waning CH
    HSS influence. Mostly nominal conditions were observed through late
    on 18 Nov. At approximately 18/1615-19/2200 UTC, total field
    increased to a maximum of 12 nT while solar wind speed remained
    nominal. This was likely weak transient influence. Total field
    increased once again beginning at 20/0800 UTC, reaching near 12 nT
    with a subsequent rise in solar wind speed from 330-410 km/s
    suggesting the onset of a connection to negative polarity CH HSS
    influence. Quiet conditions were observed on 14-17 Nov and again on
    19 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred on 18 and 20 Nov.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    21 November - 17 December 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 21-28 Nov and on
    13-17 Dec. A chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
    exists on 29 Nov-12 Dec with the return of old Regions 3140 (N25,
    L=326) and 3141 (N14, L=318).

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 28 Nov-05 Dec due to recurrent CH
    HSS influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
    levels on 21 Nov-03 Dec, 08-09 Dec, and again on 17 Dec with G1
    (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 21 Nov due to recurrent
    CH HSS activity. There is a possibility of a glancing blow from the
    16 and 19 Nov CMEs contributing to geomagnetic field response on 21
    and 22 Nov.

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