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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 17 - 23 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 24 13:00:10 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Oct 24 0233 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    17 - 23 October 2022

    Solar activity was at low levels. The spotted regions across the
    visible disk were either simple or only moderately complex. The
    result was a peak of C-class X-ray activity with a recorded max of
    C6.4 from a region around the NW limb.

    Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S28E32
    with a subsequent CME signature in the NW beginning at 22/2224 UTC.
    The CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component. Two other
    filaments erupted, centered near S45E60 around 23/1421 UTC and near
    S30E90 around 23/1604 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. Analysis and modeling
    is ongoing at the time of this writing. No other CMEs observed
    appeared to have an Earth-directed component.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
    normal to moderate levels on every day except 20 Oct, when it
    briefly reached high levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels. G1 levels were observed on 22 Oct due to the onset of
    a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active levels were
    observed 23 Oct in response to the subsequent high-speed stream.
    Unsettled levels were observed on 20 Oct and 17 Oct due to brief
    periods of southward Bz. The remainder of the summary period was at
    quiet levels.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    24 October - 19 November 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be low or very low levels throughout
    the outlook period. There is a slight chance for M-class activity
    (R1-R1 Minor-Moderate) on 27 Oct - 10 Nov due to active regions with
    M-class flare history that are scheduled to return to the visible
    disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be moderate to high levels. High levels are anticipated
    on 24 Oct - 28 Oct and 31 Oct - 06 Nov due to multiple recurrent CH
    HSSs. Moderate levels are likely for the remainder of the outlook
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
    geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 levels are likely on 24 Oct, 29-30
    Oct, 10-11 Nov, and 18-19 Nov; active levels are likely on 25 Oct,
    31 Oct - 02 Nov and 12 Nov; unsettled levels are likely on 28 Oct.
    All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated in
    response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
    outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

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