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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 10 - 16 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 17 13:00:10 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Oct 17 0220 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    10 - 16 October 2022

    Solar activity was between low to moderate levels. All M-class
    activity (R1-Minor) was observed from Region 3112 (N22, L=49, area/class=800/Fkc on 06 Oct). It produced a total of six M-class
    flares over the past 7 days, the largest of which was an M3 at
    11/0842 UTC. Three Type II radio sweeps were observed over 11-12 Oct
    but no Type IVs were observed. The region steadily decayed before
    rotating around the W limb on 14 Oct. Only C-class activity was
    observed from the other less significant spotted regions on the
    visible disk.

    Other activity included two filament eruptions, the around 13/0700
    UTC, centered near S28E10 and the second around 15/1440 UTC,
    centered near S23E45. Analysis and modeling of the subsequent
    coronagraph imagery suggested no significant contributions to the
    solar wind along the Sun-Earth line. No other Earth-directed CMEs
    were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
    from normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 10-13 Oct
    and normal to moderate levels were observed from 14-16 Oct due to
    geomagnetic activity associated with a negative polarity CH HSS. A
    peak flux of 6,220 pfu was observed at 12/1420 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm levels. G1 conditions were observed on 15 Oct in response to
    influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions on
    14-16 Oct due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled conditions
    were observed on 10-11 Oct due to a positive polarity CH HSS. Peak
    solar wind parameters included Bt reaching 18 nT on 14 Oct and solar
    wind speeds increasing to just under 600 km/s on 16 Oct. The
    remainder of the summary period was at quiet levels.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    17 October - 12 November 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be very low to low levels with a
    chance for moderate levels over the outlook period. Several regions
    that produced M-class (R1-Minor) or greater flares are scheduled to
    return to the visible disk on 18 Oct, 27 Oct and 28 Oct.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on
    21 Oct, 24-29 Oct and 10-12 Nov. Normal to moderate levels are
    expected for the remainder of the outlook period. All elevations in
    electron flux are due to anticipated influence from multiple,
    recurrent CH HSSs.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
    (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels are likely on 26 Oct, 28
    Oct, 30-31 Oct, 02 Nov, 05 Nov and 10 Nov; active levels are likely
    on 17 Oct, 20-21 Oct, 27 Oct, 29 Oct, 01 Nov, 03-04 Nov and 11 Nov;
    unsettled levels are likely on 22 Oct, 06 Nov and 12 Nov. The
    remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.
    All increases in geomagnetic activity is due to multiple, recurrent
    CH HSSs.

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