XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Oct 10 0654 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 October 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels during the period.
C-class flares were the primary background from 03-09 October due to
activity from numerous active regions. More notable were the few
M-class flares that occurred during the period. An M2.6 on 03 Oct at
0233 UTC from Region 3112 (N23E46, Fkc/Beta-Gamma-Delta), with an
associated Tenflare of 170 sfu, was the first of the reporting
period followed by an M4.2 at 1011 UTC from Region 3110 (N18W65,
Dai/Beta), which was the largest of the period. Next were an M1.5 at
1111 UTC and a M1.6 at 1530 UTC from Regions 3110 and 3112
respectively. Region 3110 (N18W79, Dai/Beta) continued to be active
on 04 Oct with an M1.6 flare at 1308 UTC, which came with an
associated Type IV Radio Emission at 1307 UTC. The subsequent CME
from this event was determined to be off the Sun-Earth line.
Activity simered down slightly 05-06 Oct with only C-class level
activity. On 07 Oct Region 3116 (N29W00, Dai/Beta) produced an M1
flare at 1444 UTC. Other notable activity on 07 Oct included an
approximately 20 degree long, eruptive filament near the NW limb at
0706 UTC. This event was determined to have a glancing impact,
mostly ahead of Earth on 12 Oct. Activity decreased slightly once
more on 08 Oct with Region 3112 (N22W16, Fki/Beta-Gamma-Delta)
returning to prominence with a C6.6 flare at 0040 UTC. Activity
continued at C-class levels over the course of 09 Oct with a CME
observed emerging from the SE limb around 0200 UTC which was
determined to be a miss south of Earth.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels 03-04 Oct. High levels were reached in
response to positive polarity CH HSS effects 05-09 OCt with a peak
flux of 3,560 pfu observed on 08 Oct at 1640 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was primariy quiet to active with an
isolated G1 (Minor) storming period observed on 03 Oct. The
aforementioned stormy period occurred late on 03 Oct in response to
positive polarity CH HSS effects coupled with a likely CME arrival
from the 28 Sep event. Quiet to active conditions then continued
under sustained fast solar wind through 07 Oct. Quiet to unsettled
conditions dominated 08 Oct. Active condtions returned 09 Oct as
faster solar wind renewed itself underseemingly positive polarity CH
HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 October - 05 November 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
flares and a slight chance for X-class flares 10-15 Oct.
Probabilties will decrease slightly 16-17 Oct, but a chance form
M-class flares will remain. A slight chance for X-class flares is
expected to return on 18 Oct with the return of an old active
region. Probabilties will remain elevated through 31 Oct until the aforementioned, anticipated returning region once again exits the
visible disk. Relatively low solar activity is then expected for the
remainder of the forecast period.

A slight chance for solar radiation storms is expected to be present
13-14 Oct as Region 3112 exits the western limb and for 29-31 Oct as
another anticipated, returning region rotates into a favorable
position as well.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at high levels through 14 Oct and then return
once again 28 Oct - 05 Nov due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS
effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected for 15-27 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming
levels on 10 Oct in response to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to
active levels are anticipated for 11-12 Oct due to continued CH HSS
effects and possible glancing influence from the 07 Oct CME event.
Active condtions are expected 15-16 and 20-21 Oct due to recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSSs. Unsettled to active levels are expected
27 Oct - 05 Nov, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible
30 Oct and 05 Nov, due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs.
Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail 13-14 Oct, 17-19 Oct and
22-26 Oct.

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