• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 03 - 09 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 10 13:00:10 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Oct 10 0654 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    03 - 09 October 2022

    Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels during the period.
    C-class flares were the primary background from 03-09 October due to
    activity from numerous active regions. More notable were the few
    M-class flares that occurred during the period. An M2.6 on 03 Oct at
    0233 UTC from Region 3112 (N23E46, Fkc/Beta-Gamma-Delta), with an
    associated Tenflare of 170 sfu, was the first of the reporting
    period followed by an M4.2 at 1011 UTC from Region 3110 (N18W65,
    Dai/Beta), which was the largest of the period. Next were an M1.5 at
    1111 UTC and a M1.6 at 1530 UTC from Regions 3110 and 3112
    respectively. Region 3110 (N18W79, Dai/Beta) continued to be active
    on 04 Oct with an M1.6 flare at 1308 UTC, which came with an
    associated Type IV Radio Emission at 1307 UTC. The subsequent CME
    from this event was determined to be off the Sun-Earth line.
    Activity simered down slightly 05-06 Oct with only C-class level
    activity. On 07 Oct Region 3116 (N29W00, Dai/Beta) produced an M1
    flare at 1444 UTC. Other notable activity on 07 Oct included an
    approximately 20 degree long, eruptive filament near the NW limb at
    0706 UTC. This event was determined to have a glancing impact,
    mostly ahead of Earth on 12 Oct. Activity decreased slightly once
    more on 08 Oct with Region 3112 (N22W16, Fki/Beta-Gamma-Delta)
    returning to prominence with a C6.6 flare at 0040 UTC. Activity
    continued at C-class levels over the course of 09 Oct with a CME
    observed emerging from the SE limb around 0200 UTC which was
    determined to be a miss south of Earth.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels 03-04 Oct. High levels were reached in
    response to positive polarity CH HSS effects 05-09 OCt with a peak
    flux of 3,560 pfu observed on 08 Oct at 1640 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity was primariy quiet to active with an
    isolated G1 (Minor) storming period observed on 03 Oct. The
    aforementioned stormy period occurred late on 03 Oct in response to
    positive polarity CH HSS effects coupled with a likely CME arrival
    from the 28 Sep event. Quiet to active conditions then continued
    under sustained fast solar wind through 07 Oct. Quiet to unsettled
    conditions dominated 08 Oct. Active condtions returned 09 Oct as
    faster solar wind renewed itself underseemingly positive polarity CH
    HSS influence.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    10 October - 05 November 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
    flares and a slight chance for X-class flares 10-15 Oct.
    Probabilties will decrease slightly 16-17 Oct, but a chance form
    M-class flares will remain. A slight chance for X-class flares is
    expected to return on 18 Oct with the return of an old active
    region. Probabilties will remain elevated through 31 Oct until the aforementioned, anticipated returning region once again exits the
    visible disk. Relatively low solar activity is then expected for the
    remainder of the forecast period.

    A slight chance for solar radiation storms is expected to be present
    13-14 Oct as Region 3112 exits the western limb and for 29-31 Oct as
    another anticipated, returning region rotates into a favorable
    position as well.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to remain at high levels through 14 Oct and then return
    once again 28 Oct - 05 Nov due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS
    effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected for 15-27 Oct.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storming
    levels on 10 Oct in response to CH HSS influence. Unsettled to
    active levels are anticipated for 11-12 Oct due to continued CH HSS
    effects and possible glancing influence from the 07 Oct CME event.
    Active condtions are expected 15-16 and 20-21 Oct due to recurrent,
    negative polarity CH HSSs. Unsettled to active levels are expected
    27 Oct - 05 Nov, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible
    30 Oct and 05 Nov, due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs.
    Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail 13-14 Oct, 17-19 Oct and
    22-26 Oct.

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