XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Oct 03 0500 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 September - 02 October 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. Low
levels occured from 26-29 Sep with numerous C-class flares observed
from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22 Sep), 3107
(S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) and 3112 (N23, L=052,
class/area Fki/750 on 02 Oct), the largest region on the disk. The
largest of these flares was a long duration C5.5 from Region 3112.

Activity increased to moderate levels with three M-class flares from
Region 3112 including an M2.9 at 30/1622 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs
were detected with these flares. Activity levels further increased
to high with an M5.8/1b flare observed at 01/2010 UTC from Region
3110 (N16, L=158, class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Analysis and
modelling of the subsequent CME indicated a possible Earth-directed
component. In addition, a slow rise and fall C3.5 x-ray event, with
an associated filament eruption, was detected from Region 3113 (N16,
L=154, class/area Dao/100 on 01 Oct). Analysis and modelling of the
subsequent CME indicated a possible Earth-directed component.

High levels continued with M-class activity from Regions 3110 and
3112, the largest of these was an M8.7/1n from Region 3110.
Associated with this event was a Type IV, a Tenflare (190 sfu) and a
possible Earth-directed CME. Late on 02 Oct, the largest event of
the highlight period was observed from Region 3110, an X1.0 with an
associated Type II (1157 km/s) and 420 sfu Tenflare. Also associated
with this event was a CME that had not been analyzed as of this
writing.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 26 Sep with a peak flux of 2,640 pfu observed at
26/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was slightly elevated to near 2 pfu on the 27th and near 1 pfu
on 01 and 02 Oct due to major flare activity.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Mostly quiet levels were observed on 26 Sep. By 27 Sep, levels
increased to unsettled to major storm due to negative polarity CH
HSS effects coupled with CME effects from 24 Sep. Mostly quiet
levels were observed on 28-29 Sep. Unsettled to active levels were
observed on 30 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet
levels returned on 01 Oct through midday or so on 02 Oct. Later on
02 Oct, unsettled to minor storm levels were observed due to
positive polarity CH HSS effects.





Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 October - 29 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely and
a chance for X-class from 03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to
current active regions on the visible disk and returning active
regions. Low levels are expected during the interim dates from 15-17
Oct.

A chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit are possible from
03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to current active regions on
the visible disk and returning active regions. No proton events are
expected during the interim dates from 15-17 Oct.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at mostly normal to moderate levels during the
outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at minor to major storm
levels on 03-05 Oct due to combined positive polarity CH HSS and CME
effects. Unsettled levels are possible on 10 Oct, 15-16 Oct and
20-21 Oct with active levels possible on 15-16 Oct, all due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.

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