• Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19 - 25 September

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Sep 26 13:00:10 2022
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2022 Sep 26 0155 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    19 - 25 September 2022

    Solar activity reached moderate levels this week with three M-class
    flares observed during the period. Region 3102 (S25, L=298,
    class/area Eki/320 on 18 Sep) produced an M1.0/1n flare at 20/1122
    UTC. Region 3107 (S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) produced
    an M1.0 at 21/0702 UTC. This was followed by the largest event of
    the period, an M1.7/Sf at 23/1810 UTC from Region 3110 (N16, L=158,
    class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Associated with this event were Type
    II (est. 2453 km/s S.V.) and Type IV signatures. During the period,
    a total of 62 C-class and 3 M-class flares were recorded. In
    addition to Regions 3102, 3107 and 3110, C-class activity was also
    observed from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22
    Sep) and 3109 (N10, L=257, class/area Dro/040 on 23 Sep). Numerous
    CME signatures, off of both limbs, were observed in coronagraph
    imagery throughout the week, but none were determined to have
    Earth-directed components.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, although the
    10 Mev proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels on 19-24 Sep and high levels on 25 Sep
    with a peak flux of 2,130 pfu observed at 25/1555 UTC.

    Geomagnetic field activity mostly ranged from quiet to unsettled
    levels with an isolated active period early on 24 September. Quiet
    to unsettled periods were observed on 19-20 September under weak,
    diminishing, negative polarity coronal hole high stream influence.
    Quiet levels were observed on 21 and 22 September, with the
    exception of an isolated unsettled period late on 22 September.
    Unsettled to isolated active conditions persisted on 24 and 25
    September under weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed
    stream influence.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    26 September - 22 October 2022

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
    (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) flare activity on 26 September to 04
    October and from 08-22 October due to current active regions on the
    visible disk and returning, active regions.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 26-28 September, 03-12 October and
    22 October in response to CH HSS influences.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
    27-28 September, 01-06 October, 16-17 October, with active levels
    possible on 01-05 October and 20-21 October. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
    levels are possible on 01-04 October as well. This enhanced activity
    is due to CH HSS influences.

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